当前位置:首页 > Today's headlines > The eight major economic policy propositions of the United States President Trump 正文

The eight major economic policy propositions of the United States President Trump

来源:Hot news website   作者:real time news   时间:2024-02-29 10:21:55

On November 9, 2016, Beijing time, in the fierce U.S. presidential election, Trump took the lead in getting 270 election votes, which means that he will perform the next president of the United States in January 2017.Comments generally believe that Trump's election will bring more uncertainty to the world.The following is Trump's eight major economic policy propositions.

1. Monetary policy and Federal Reserve      

It is the two major responsibilities of the United States to achieve stable price and fully employment through the implementation of monetary policy and achieve full employment. At the same time, the risk of supervising the financial system must be supervised.

Trump has long been talked about, and if he was elected president, he would replace the position of the Fed Chairman of Janet Yellen.Trump's attitude is also frank. He said that changing Yellen is not because her work is not doing well, but because Yellen is not a Republican.

Trump has repeatedly attacked the negative impact of the Fed's low interest rate policy, such as asset price bubbles and the false prosperity of the stock market.But this does not prevent him from his preference for low interest rates. He believes that low interest rates are conducive to long -term financing and can repay the old debt of high interest rates by issuing cheaper new debts.At the same time, the financing cost of infrastructure investment can be reduced.

He also said that interest rate hikes will push the US dollar exchange rate, damage the United States' competitive position relative to China, and will increase the difficulty of repaying US debt interest.

Tax policies

Trump's tax position can be summarized in one sentence: my core belief is to reduce taxes.

Since investing in the nomination of the Republican presidential candidate, Trump's tax cuts have not been able to reach within the Republican Party.Trump plans to simplify the current personal income tax from 7 to 3, which are 12%, 25%, and 33%. The corporate income tax will be reduced from 39%to 15%.Repeat taxes.According to Trump's claim, individuals with an annual income of less than $ 25,000 and couples below $ 50,000 do not have to pay taxes.

The Republican party's policy is to advocate small governments, that is, to stimulate the economy by reducing tax cuts and reducing government supervision. After the cake is larger, the fiscal balance of low tax rates can be achieved.

Trump also allows enterprises to bring funds stranded overseas back to the United States, paying taxes at a time at a rate of 10%, which will bring new income to the Ministry of Finance. He opposes the company's postponement of overseas income.

Tax Policy Center reports: "According to Trump's plan, unless government expenditure has decreased significantly, government debt will soar to 80%of GDP by 2036."But Trump said his tax reform will not increase the federal budget deficit or government bond.

3. Trade and globalization      

Trump has overturned the concepts that the Republican Party adhered to for decades on the issue of trade and globalization.He strongly opposed the free trade, saying that the US economy would go backwards.He referred to the North American Free Trade Agreement (TPP) as "the biggest theft in history", called the cross -Pacific partnership agreement was completely a disaster, and was driven by a group of special stakeholders who wanted to plunder the United States.

Trump said at a momentum: Our politicians have always actively respected globalization, transferred our work, our wealth, and our factory to Mexico and overseas, saying that it would force American workers and low salaries in VietnamWorkers are competing.

Trump said that over the years, many communities in the United States have fallen into depression, and the global wave has completely destroyed our middle class.

Regarding China, he believes that because China has joined the WTO, it has led to the closure of more than 50,000 factories in the United States and the unemployment of more than 10 million workers. He suggested that China announced that China would manipulate the country and impose 45%tariffs on all Chinese imported products. 

Fourth, financial supervision

After the financial crisis in 2008, the Obama administration introduced the most comprehensive and severe financial reform bill "Dodd-Frank Act" since the "Great Depression", which strengthened the supervision of financial institutions.Hillary's regulatory policy advocates mainly from its deputy Sanders, and Sanders strongly advocates rectify Wall Street and dismantle large banks.

Contrary to Sanders' financial policy, Trump believes that he should relax supervision and recommend the abolition of the Dodge Frank Act. He believes that the most serious economic crisis has passed, and this bill is now outdated.It seriously hinders the US people loan from banks.Moreover, he claims to "suspend all supervision" and re -examine the current regulatory policies.

Although Trump's claim is more in line with Wall Street's interests on the surface, Wall Street is concerned that his extreme governance thinking will lead to greater uncertainty risks.

5. Social insurance, medical insurance      

By 2020, the United States' expenses in social insurance and medical insurance will be significantly exceeded the plan.The two plans had about 41%of the total federal government expenditure last year, far higher than 36%in 2011.In the next 20 years, this proportion will rise with the aging of the infant tide generation and the increase in the proportion of retirement.

Trump promises voters to protect the social welfare of Americans without stifling medical insurance.

Trump has always criticized Republican leaders who have reduced social welfare, such as increasing retirement age or restricting retirement benefits of the rich.Trump believes that it can supplement two expenses by reducing waste in certain areas.

6. National debt 

Due to the sharp decline in tax revenue and the increase in the government's increasing stimulation of consumer expenses, the federal government's budget deficit has soared rapidly after the financial crisis broke out in 2008.While last year's fiscal deficit fell to the lowest level since 2007, the government's debt scale has doubled, about 75%of GDP.

A word that Trump often hangs on his mouth in the campaign is that we have $ 19 trillion in debt. We need someone to solve it. We can deal with it in a good and quickly in 8 years.However, Trump has made self -conflict remarks on debt issues.He stated in March that the strong growth of the US economy may allow the state to repay debts without analyzing the budget.In a TV visit shortly, Trump also said that he might try to re -negotiate with his creditors.In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in May, he also said that he would not modify any terms in the debt.

7. Border Wall and immigrants      

Trump's immigration policy has almost become the most clear label for his personal presidential campaign.In his early -announced immigration policy documents, he claimed that he would reform the US immigration system, protect the southern border, and terminate "birth of citizenship" and to solve all illegal immigrants.

Trump insists on building the Mexican border wall and forced the Mexican government to pay the wall repair cost.In his report entitled "To let the United States' great immigration reform again", he called for the end of the "birth of citizenship", saying that it was "illegal immigrants."

In his immigration plan, Trump proposed to "seize all remittances from illegal salary; increase temporary visa fees to Mexican business supervisors and diplomats (if necessary to cancel them); increase the transit card charges -the United States issued 100 to Mexico each year 100Ten thousand transit cards; increase the work visa fee to all NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in Mexico; increase entry tax (options also include increasing tariffs and cutting foreign aid).

8. Infrastructure construction      

During his momentum, he repeatedly ridiculed some airports in the United States. It was "shame". Americans wereted timeless time due to crowded transportation every day.Trump has proposed a plan for large -scale infrastructure investment, which is one of his themes in his activity.He promised voters to spend trillion dollars to rebuild roads, airports, bridges, drainage systems and grids.Trump's infrastructure investment plan is consistent with the opinions of many Republicans.

Event: Trump defeated Hillary and became the next president of the United States.

It should be said that Trump is a rich three generations, and speaking is a poisonous tongue, but in the end, Hillary, who is immersed in politics for decades, is super expected, which makes everyone look great. Today, this incident analyzes and commented.

1. The policy proposition of Trump's campaign

Trump has been elected President of the United States. He has multiple claims during the campaign. Among them, the economic proposition includes the following two aspects:

(1) Economic policy is centered on tax reduction as the core

It mainly includes the following points: 1. It advocates tax reduction of everyone; in corporate income tax, corporate income tax is claimed from 35%to 15%; only 10%of taxes are levied by overseas funds to the United States.2. Strengthen infrastructure construction and intend to issue "infrastructure bonds", at least 500 billion US dollars.3. Propose to tighten monetary policy, criticize the Fed's low interest rate policy, and expressed support for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

(2) Foreign economic policy, with trade protectionism as the core

It mainly includes the following points: 1. Opposition to the Free Trade Agreement, advocate the abolition of the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), consider re -negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organization (WTO).2. At the expense of launching a trade war, it advocates a 20%tariff on all imported goods and impose punitive tariffs on countries that carry out unfair dumping and subsidies.

In addition, Trump supports the cancellation of the Obama administration's national medical insurance plan, which will strengthen the military deployment of the United States in the East China and South China Sea, deter China, and more negative comments on China.

2. The impact of Trump's policy proposition

If Trump is in power, in accordance with the commitment during the campaign, governing will bring the following impact:

(1) Help the recovery of the US economy

Trump's tax reduction plan is conducive to the recovery of private consumption and the recovery of private investment.Tax discounts in infrastructure will also accelerate investment. Trump's solution will theoretically help the rapid recovery of the US economy.

(2) He is too aggressive and brings great uncertainty to the capital market.

Trump's campaign claim is far more aggressive than Hillary. Trump's advocated trade protectionism may trigger a trade war, causing the United States and global economy to be troubled.Hillary's policy ideas are more about the continuation and amendment of the current Obama government's ruling ideas, while Trump represents the policy "changing the string". Because his policy ideas are more radical, the market has caused uncertainty to the market to its policies to bring uncertainty to its policiesWorries.Further leading to the hedging of the United States heating up, the risk assets of the air, and facing the risk -free assets such as gold and yen.

(3) Toughness to China is not conducive to China's foreign trade and economic development

Trump's trade proposition to China is mainly: First, after being elected, the Minister of Finance ordered China to set China as a exchange rate manipulator.Once it is determined that the existence of exchange rate manipulation in a country, the United States will not only put pressure on the government through the IMF, but also require the exchange rate policy to adjust its exchange rate policy, and it is also likely that it will retaliate against trade methods such as tax levy of the country.Second, if China does not cooperate with the United States, it will impose 45%punitive tariffs on all imported goods from China.China and the United States may erupt a comprehensive trade war.

3. After Trump is elected as the President of the United States, the sharp policy is likely to be adjusted

After Trump is elected as the President of the United States, it is likely to be adjusted in policies, and sharp policies will become mild.Candidates often exaggerate their words and make some unrealistic commitments during the campaign.But once successfully elected, due to the changes in position changes, and the balance of interests and strengths of all parties in China, the original campaign claims will be appropriately discarded.For example, in 1980, the Republican candidate Reagan criticized President Carter Carter to establish diplomatic relations with China during the campaign and vowed to restore "official relations" with Taiwan, but after he was elected, he denied that he had had this position. In 1992, the Democratic Party candidate candidateDuring the campaign, Clinton strongly opposed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The agreement was signed by President Bush at the end of his term.Therefore, it is foreseeable that if Trump is elected president, it is likely to make adjustments to his original aggressive trade proposition.

Fourth, Trump will have the impact after being elected president:

After Trump is elected president, he will revise the policy proposition, and in fact, it will bring the following impact:

(1) Sino -U.S.

If Trump is elected, although the Sino -US comprehensive trade war is unlikely to explode, for the sake of fulfilling the campaign commitment, it will inevitably make some symbolic gestures. It is expected that some Chinese products will increase tariffs or set up barriers. China and the United States will be set.Trade friction will increase.At present, imported goods from China are mainly electromechanical products, and mechanical and electrical products may be the first.

(2) Increase China's capital outflow and increase the pressure of the depreciation of the renminbi

The local trade war may damage China's trade surplus, and the surplus of frequent accounts may decline.Trump's proposition of tax reduction in enterprises, especially for overseas funds to levy 10%of taxes, is likely to attract US overseas funds to return; claiming that multinational companies such as Apple will move the Asian production line back to the United States, otherwise it will be going to be going toLegashed 35%of these companies.In addition, China ’s concerns about Burst’ s qualitative “exchange rate manipulation” will reduce intervention in foreign exchange, and the driving force for the depreciation of the renminbi may increase.

5. The probability of raising interest rates in the United States in December is very high

In the third quarter of the United States, GDP annually increased by 2.9%. Excessive market expectations, the United States September CPI and PPI have reached a new high since 2015.The recent rise in volume and price of the US economy is conducive to the process of interest rate hikes in the United States.In addition, in early 2016, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates 4 times a year. At the nearly two interest rates, the Federal Reserve statement emphasized that the reason for interest rate hikes has continued to strengthen. If it is not added once in the end, it will seriously affect the credibility of the Fed.In addition, Trump himself opposes low interest rate policies and advocates tightening monetary policy.

Generally speaking, technical issues refer to chart analysis, but only part of the scope of technical analysis. The entire technical level is only three of the entire transaction part. The decisive factor of the remaining seven is from our soul.

Pay attention to the difference between March and seven. Don't say that the mind is more important than technology because of Sanqi, but that the normal play of technology depends on the spiritual level.Their relationship is a bit like material and soul.Our body is a material level, and the soul gives the body to the body's continuous creativity.Similarly, technology is seeds, and the soul is the fertile soil.

Mind transaction is not a special function, nor is it subjective conjecture. It is a harmonious interaction between individual and overall, and it is the highest state of transaction.Human consciousness has a characteristic. It is used to divide things into the subject and object in behavior -that is, "I" is the subject, and "problem" is the object.Students often understand the relationship between subjects and objects as one -way and linear.Therefore, many students want to find a trading system or indicator once and for all, trying to do nothing in hundreds of.However, this game will always be a contest between the left and right hands. Who is the ultimate winner?It is often said that good and good people do not!

There is a story: A very proficient and easy -going divination counts that his beloved antique vases will be broken in a certain month and one day.He loved this vase very much and decided to keep it at all costs.Therefore, he placed the vase at the center of the table, one day, and a certain day, and he was inseparable.When eating lunch, his wife called for many times, and he was angry!When I stepped forward, I patted the table, and the vase responded to the ground and broke.This person enlightened and sighed: Zuo Gui You couldn't calculate himself in!It's not easy since then.

This story is very important for us to understand the market structure.The protagonist in the story cannot be incorporated into the system, so it cannot interact with the system, so it is impossible to grasp the impact of its behavior on the results.Similarly, the operators in the market are both onlookers and market participants in the market -trading behavior leads to changes in price, and price changes in turn affect trading behavior.

The market is such one, and the main body and the object are the cause and effect of the cyclic mutual feedback dynamic system (chaos).In fact, the boundary between the subject and the object is quite vague.In other words, once investors participate in the market, they must eliminate individuality and integrate into the whole!In this left -handed game, all the secrets are to find the balance point.Whether it is left or right, it will hurt itself. Only find that balance point, surpass the two poles, and become the whole to succeed.At this level, all technical analysis and basic analysis methods are powerless.Because for a chaotic system, only linear tools can only be counterproductive.We can only seek solution from a higher level, the level of consciousness (mind).

At this point, we try to define the next definition of the spiritual transaction.The primary task of spiritual transactions is to eliminate the two points in the trading behavior, thereby achieving an individual and the overall harmony and unification with the system (market).The two points in the transaction behavior include several levels, simply: information, methods, and ideology and ideology.In spiritual transactions, the source of market information should be better, accurate and easy to be digested by the operator.

The more complicated the information in the transaction is, the better. No matter how much information is taken, the final transaction choice is nothing more than buying and selling.The information that cannot be understood by the operator can only be seriously interfered with trading behavior.Many students are obsessed with the analysis of indexes. From the concept of spiritual transaction, instead of catching the wind on the index map line, it is better to study the statistical meaning expressed in the formula of the indicators.

For methods, the simpler and more intuitive technology can better meet the essence of the market and eliminate unnecessary secondary interference. Therefore, the most basic technical analysis methods such as K -line, trend lines, and moving average are used.Of course, the wave theory and the Jiang En cycle can also be applied at the stage.

Although the above methods are the most basic technical analysis methods, many people have not used them to make money, so they suspect that there are more problems with technical theories than those who suspect that they have problems.The problem is not in technical methods, but in the ideology of traders.

As far as the mind transaction itself is concerned, it does not exclude any technical analysis methods, that is, after mastering the spiritual transaction, anyone can use any method they like to make money.In summary, all technical analysis tools are linear, including computer automatic transaction systems.We can understand them as a line (one -dimensional space).At present, most people do things to solve the problem of two -dimensional space (subject and object) with tools that try to use one -dimensional space.Obviously, this will only create more troubles.We cannot stay in the system and solve the system's own problems.The problem of two -dimensional space needs to be solved to the height of the three -dimensional space (subject and object, and the consciousness of observing the two), that is, soul transaction.

This situation is similar to the relationship between "theory of relativity" and "the law of gravity".At the level of spiritual transaction, the original contradictions of each other become harmonious and unified, and the system runs in a complete state for the first time.At this time, profit is no longer a problem, and enjoying the integration of themselves and the market has become the biggest fun of traders.

When the "surgery" of the investment market is incomparable, people will inevitably invest the attention of hope to the wisdom that has been blocked. When combining the wisdom of Confucianism, Buddhism and Taoism with our investment, spiritual transactions will be the highest of traders.The realm of trading is "Tao" higher than the spiritual transaction, which is the highest level that we can reach by our stocks and Confucianism, Buddhism and Taoism, and the highest level of human souls.Therefore, investment needs to start with "heart".

Why is such a weird suspected racist be supported by so many people?Is the American people crazy?

Chinese entrepreneur Li Shimo has compared the standards of leaders in China and the United States in a TED speech.He said that the Governor of Obama had never been the governor, and he became the president when he was young. The highest leaders in China came from county, city, and province to step by step, and the resumes were complete.Based on this, Li Shimo believes that China is better, and Obama is obviously worse than Chinese leaders.

But US presidents may not need much governance experience.

1. Experience and circle outsiders

Few US presidents slowly climbed up in politics step by step, and their sources were diverse.Some people inspect [1] Among the top ten presidents with the highest reputation in the United States, only Kennedy has profound experience in politics, and he has been a member of the members and a senator.But even if Kennedy is not a politician in the traditional sense, he used to be a fighting hero, and he also published a book that won Pulitzer.Some of the US presidents who have left their names are soldiers before, some are lawyers, some are actors, and some are university presidents.The only resume in the United States is very complete. He has been mixed in the officialdom for many years before he became president.Johnson was not able to cope with the new situation because of lack of flexibility, and was considered one of the worst presidents of the United States.

Even the average age elected by the president is lower than the average age of the first election of parliamentarians.

The people's choice of president is not the experience of governing, but the policy concept.Specific things can be handed over to the hand. The mission of the president is to lead national reform and innovation.There was a difference between officials and officials in Chinese history. Officials must pass the imperial examinations to come up, and they can move around the country. The official is a mixing calendar, and the position is just a clerk. It only maintains a neutrality for political struggles.The United States also has a little similar meaning, and the people who come up have real power.

Once you are elected president, you will immediately get the power of the cabinet to appoint officials, and the army must immediately obey your order.The president also has to fight against Congress, but as far as the clerks at all levels are directed, you do not need to get through the factional relationship for the unblocked political order, especially if you do n’t need to use personal grace for the loyalty of the army.Therefore, the task of the election officer is innovation, not a hybrid.An old churros who has been mixed in the system for many years may not have much innovation will.Fresh blood from outside the system can bring new weather to the system.Of course, the premise of all this is that there is a good protection of the rule of law, and everyone agrees with the authorization of the people.

But even in the United States, Trump, a significant leader of Republican candidate Trump, has just been ahead of Trump just on Tuesday.Trump has no experience in politics. He has always been a businessman, and he is a businessman with strong entertainment, especially in an amazing words.

Trump once directly announced the private phone number of a senator to voters, blatantly exposed others' privacy.Trump had publicly questioned that Obama was not born in the United States, and forced Obama to find out his birth certificate, and he said he still couldn't completely believe that Obama was born in the United States.One of the Trump's campaign programs was to build a thousand miles along the US and Mexican border to prevent illegal immigrants from entering the country -he also repeatedly emphasized that the wall was built by the Mexican government.When the former President of Mexico stated that it would not be built, Trump's first reaction was because you said that, this wall is now increased by 10 feet.Trump said the Mexican government is sending rap prisoners to the United States.Trump also said that Muslims were prohibited from entering the United States.Trump is also ambiguous with the 3K party relationship.

No wonder some intellectual people can't see it. Some people say that Trump is Hitler in the United States, and some say that Trump is Belstini. Anyway, he either wants to engage in dictatorship or to engage in oligopoly politics.Recently, there is another report that the former director of the Central Intelligence Bureau told reporters that if Trump was elected president, the military could resist his life!

Why is such a ridiculous and weird suspected racist be supported by so many people?Is the American people crazy?

Second, claim

So I carefully studied a book that explained my political concept after Trump's announcement of the election, Crippled America: How to make American.In fact, you can't talk about studying. You don't need to work hard to read this book. If Chinese readers want to learn English, I recommend getting started with Trump's book.Because the English level of this book is probably the fourth grade of American elementary school.

According to a word evaluation [2], Washington's farewell speech in 1796 reached the level of graduate students, as high as level 17.9. Since then, the level of speech of the US President's speech is under the rivers and rivers, and there is only eight grades to Obama.

This is not to say that the level of US President's level is regression, but it can only show that more and more people in the United States are involved in politics.I recently learned some professional English writing. I heard that most Americans, including those who have received high education, hoped that the level of words of reading articles is below 10.You have to use a lot of high -style vocabulary, and ordinary people don't look at it at all.Trump himself has published several business books and wrote novels. He obviously has the ability to write higher -level text. He now adopts the most close -to -people writing method for the campaign, and has reached fourth grade historically.

I didn't even "read" at all.The foreword was read by Trump himself, and the latter text was a actor read.The part that Trump reads himself is particularly fast. Like a quarrel, the tone is very high, which really reminds me of Hitler.

Trump was angry.Domestic politicians talk about things that are meaningless all day, and Congress cannot even approve the budget. The income of the middle class is shrinking. Many people are unemployed. The problems brought by the Obama medical insurance plan are much more.The United States is passive in the Middle East, and the sense of existence is not as good as Russia. The negotiations of the Iranian nuclear issue are just concession ... Trump believes that the United States has stagnated and not great, so he wants to come out to run for the greatEssence

If it is a scholar to write a book to talk about national affairs, it will definitely propose a systematic theory, to explain causality, historical research, a lot of data, and widely quote the results of others as support ... But in order to ensure the level of fourth grade level, Never engaged in this.Trump starts with self -promotion and ended with self -promotion."I advocate ...", "I was ...", "If I came to do it ...", there is no meticulous feasibility argument, and I am directly attentive.

What does Trump advocate?

He did say that he wanted to build such a border wall, and the Mexican government paid for the wall.But if you read this book, he is not particularly absurd.The United States has a large trade deficit to Mexico every year.Trump said he could force Mexico to make economic concessions through trade negotiations or other economic means, which is actually equivalent to paying the money of this wall.

Trump said that building walls did not hate Mexicans. He said that the existence of illegal immigrants was unfair to legal immigrants.There are many illegal immigrants who are violent criminals, and although the Mexican government may not have this meaning, in fact, they are willing to see these bad guys leave Mexico to enter the United States.According to the latest public opinion test, those Mexican immigrants in the United States support Trump's policies, because they do not want more illegal immigrants to grab their work.

In terms of foreign policies, Trump has a argument that the United States is in Germany, South Korea, and the Middle East to help Saudi Arabia to protect the regime. It is spent by the American taxpayer's own money. This is the head of injustice.In fact, this is the case since World War II, but Trump believes that this should not do that.

Some people think that Trump is a war madman, and once he is elected, war will be launched.But Trump actually only had to fight ISIS, and his policy on Iran was only tougher in the negotiations.What's more interesting is that Trump's view on North Korea is that he should talk to China that China comes forward to solve the North Korean problem -that is, in Trump's mind, North Korea is the backyard of China, not the backyard of the United States.Trump has never said that he will have a comprehensive confrontation with China. In fact, his own company has a great business with China.He just said that he wanted to conduct trade negotiations with China and demand better trade conditions.As a businessman, Trump believes that he is good at this negotiation.

In terms of education, Trump said that American schools have encouraged students' self -esteem excessively under the correct name of politics, but in fact, students cannot face real competition in schools, cannot divide strengths, and they cancompete.Trump is very disgusted with the teacher union, because the trade union makes the teacher's salary be determined by his working year, not based on the teacher's ability.The United States has the highest investment in each student, but the level of education in the United States is only 26th in the world.However, he really didn't understand the National Ministry of Education to cancel the national unified teaching outline and even simply cancel the Ministry of Education.

In terms of energy, Trump also told a lot of truth. He said that wind and solar energy must not solve the problem, and disdain politically correct green energy.Petroleum and gas are the main force.Trump said why the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is priced to the oil, and it is the price of the United States.His tough attitude is in line with the expectations of ordinary people.

All Republican candidates have to cancel Obama Medical Insurance, but only Trump's plan dares to do it against a private insurance company.Trump said that the current private insurance companies are not fully competitive. Each insurance company has its own territory. This state only deal with this insurance company, which has led to many monopolies and inefficiency.He wants to remove the marginal line between the state and let the insurance company compete in full.

I examined these political claims of Trump, including his expression in interviews with reporters and TV debates. In fact, he was not only extreme, but also the most milder in the Republican Party.

wpresidential-candidates.insidegov.com website lists all the political stances of selected people. Trump is the most "left" in the entire Republican Party.From abortion and homosexuality to medical insurance and immigrants, Trump is quite pragmatic. He even admits that he has considered the plan that the government has come forward to provide national medical insurance, which is not like Republicans at all.

All Republican candidates have to reduce taxes. Trump is just tax cuts and simplified tax reporting procedures, and Cruze, currently ranked second, must simply abolish the IRS!

Trump is the only candidate in the two parties that announced a neutral position in the Palestinian and Israeli disputes. Others can't wait to say that they are Israeli directly.Even the "Foreign Policy" magazine said that [3], in the American politics with a strong lobbying forces in Jewish, politicians dare to have such a position is simply the same as suicide.

Even if it is the most controversial illegal immigration problem, Trump wants to send all illegal immigrants out of the United States, and then allows these "good people" among these illegal immigrants to return to the United States.Cruz's point of view is to send illegal immigrants directly out of the United States and prohibit them from returning!

Whose policy is more like Hitler?

As for the resistance of the former director of the Central Intelligence Bureau, if you read that interview carefully, the reason is that Trump once said a paragraph: those terrorists in the Middle East are not afraid of death, but they are at least thinking about their family members, so if you want to deal with it, you want to deal with it.These terrorists must not hit them alone, and they should also deal with their family.The former director of the Central Intelligence Agency said that the US law banned soldiers from massacre on civilians, so if the president ordered the massacre, the soldiers not only had the right to resist their lives, but also had to resist their fate according to the law.He said this shows the image of the US military's justice. It is not to say that he does not like businessmen as presidents. Trump comes to power, so he does not listen to his command. This is two codes.

Similar to this kind of context, it is pretty good, and some reporters directly tease Trump to play.Trump said in the book that some reporters interviewed him to play the game of "Gotcha" -grabbing you a small mistake to attack you: the reporter asked Trump, do you know the three largest terrorist heads in the Middle Eastname?You do not know?They are XXX, XXX and XXX, and they are special standards.Trump said it is meaningless to rectify me.I can't understand these details. After I become the president, I will choose the best experts to do these things, and they understand these details.What the president should do is to grasp the overall situation!

The reporter wanted to make fun of businessman Trump is unprofessional about politics.But what is professional?

3. Professional politics is incorrect

If you always say some amazing, on the one hand, it is easy to win more voters, and on the other hand, it will cause more people to misunderstand you.But Trump does this is also a strategy.Only by talking can he reflect that he is different from traditional politicians.

The American politics is very important for politics.The most critical point of political correctness is the "zero damage principle". It is better not to do things or smash things, nor can it hurt the disadvantaged group.An example is that voters once asked Hillary what to eat.What else can be tangled in this question?But Hillary thought that if I love to say vegetarian food, they may offend those who love meat. If they love meat, they will offend those vegetarians.So she thought for a long time and replied that I would not eat anything!Speaking nonsense is really the basic skills of politicians.

Why are politicians so afraid of saying wrong?Because they dare not offend anyone.In the final analysis, because American politicians have no true strength.

Even if there are many years of administrative experience, few politicians have won particularly great achievements such as the World War.Most candidates are members of the members or governors. They are just the public opinion of public opinion. There is no contribution to advertise, and there is no power.They can only say that their personal image is the first productive forces.

Bush Bush fought the war on terrorism in the first term, and was full of controversy but still gained high popularity.So at the beginning of his second term, he dared to say that I have accumulated a lot of political capital, and now I am preparing to spend these political capital.What political capital does politicians like Hillary, Cruz, and Rubio have?What did they do?

Obama can say the most that no one can offend and everyone can be happy.But under the pressure of politics, what kind of substance did Obama say?He wrote a book before the president called The AudaCity of Hope. The slogan of his first term is Change. His second term is Hope, but what kind of Change and Hope did he bring, and he has another.What AudaCity?For such politicians, ordinary people have long been tired.

The election was not Trump's system, but Trump's puppet.

The puppet politician is the mouse in the so -called toilet in Lisi. He blame it because they are not really what they can rely on.

And Trump is a mouse in the granary.

Trump has qualifications.At least he once made the enterprise bigger and stronger, and he also supported tens of thousands of employees.So Trump said that when I entered Washington, I would fired those incompetent politicians, and even disrespect to Congress.In the debate, Trump pointed out that Rubyo and Cruz are not doing anything -just like building this wall on the border between the United States and Mexico.Put this wall efficiently.If Rubio and Cruz are repaired, the wall will be much more expensive and it will not be repaired.

Trump expressed his determination to do things for the United States.He said that the infrastructure of the United States lags far behind China, so he wants to engage in the largest infrastructure construction since the new policy of Roosevelt, and to drive the economy.Trump said that my strengths are construction experience. I am good at doing business. I know how to negotiate with the union. I know how to deal with lawyers. I know how to make things high efficiency and save money.

If you are a American voter, who will choose?Cruz, which is more extreme in the election policy, is still loved by the Republican formulation, the Rubio is still loved by the Republican formulation?The last TV debate before Tuesday, the two jointly attacked Trump, I see like a child raised his bar as an adult.The two questioned that Trump hired illegal immigrants thirty years ago, but which voters would care about 30 years ago?And Trump answered very well: I did hire illegal immigrants of Polish descent for thirty years, because at that time the legal Americans were disdain to do that job, but now even legal Americans can't find a job!Cruz also attacked Trump to donate to the Democratic Party, and Trump said I have donated it to you!Trump just loves to say a few words, and Cruz and Rubio's campaign advertisements against Trump can be called next.

There are indeed some new weather in this American election.We often criticize the United States as a money election, but Trump is exactly the money itself.Some people say that Trump is Berluskini, but Berlusco is the richest people in Italy. He has the economic lifeblood in Italy. He is indeed a combination of power and money -and Trump's family business comes to the United States.It's not worth mentioning.Trump's wealth only increases his confidence, because he does not need to donate anyone's donations or give people a puppet.

Sanders, the Democratic Party, almost all of the campaign funds came from a small donation. None of the large companies supported him because his claim was to increase taxes to large companies.His average donation is only $ 27!That is, the people donate some money for him, so that he can take a plane to the states to run for election.J. Bush is money politics, Hillary is money politics, but at least in Trump and Sanders, this year's election is not money politics.

On the other hand, these candidates, the Republican Rubio and Cruz are both the second generation of Latin American immigrants. Sanders is the second generation of Polish immigrants. Ben Carson is a black man. Trump's mother is Scottish immigrants. These arePeople are not "purebreds" Americans.Two of them did not have any experience in politics. Ben Carson used to be a surgeon. Trump used to be a businessman. They just couldn't stand the country and came forward.The United States soon was almost not the world of Anglo Saxon, not the world of institutions.

During the administration of Bush, Bush offended a lot of intellectuals. I once read a book, Are We Rome?[4] Compared with the ancient Rome at that time, the United States thought that the United States was about to change from a democratic country to a dictatorship.The United States is really a bit like ancient Rome at this moment: when politicians do not work, ordinary people will expect strong people to appear.But I think Trump may not be the Great of Caesar, and he may not be a dictator, nor does American soil allow a dictator to appear.Trump is a capable and attractive person, and may be a strong leader, but isn't this just returning to common sense?Shouldn't politicians be such a person?

Eight years ago, the Republican presidential candidate John McCan was caminated with a hero of the Vietnam War.But his hero was actually captured because of the Vietnam War, and was closed by the Vietnamese five years later.In the correct context of politics, those who have been captured not only cannot discriminate against, but they must also be called a hero.

I think the correct politics has depreciated the word "hero", and there are not many heroes in this era.Maybe because almost all Republican bosses do not like Trump, Trump does not like these big guys.Trump publicly said that McCan is not a hero:

"He is a hero, but because he has been captured, I like people who have never been captured."

In October, the national manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, a new high since August 2014. In the main sub -indicators, production, demand, inventory, and prices have been rebounded. In this way, the growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter still has the growth rate of GDP.It may rise further, opposite to the decline in economic growth in the second half of the year at the beginning of the year.Combining the fixed asset investment and industrial enterprise business data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in September, and the recent momentum of the price of many commodities in the commodities, it seems that the economy has been converted.Does the Chinese economy really pick up so easily?

From the perspective of investment, PMI's strong cause and effect

Economic growth is essentially the growth rate of total output. The output volume depends on the amount of input. The larger the amount of input, the more output should be, and vice versa.If you have less output, it means that the labor productivity is higher or the economic efficiency is high.The easiest way to measure the input -output ratio is to calculate the ratio of the total investment in fixed assets of each year to the GDP. This proportion has continued to rise, from less than 30%in 1992 to 50%in 2006.In the third quarter, the proportion reached 82%, indicating that investment efficiency was declining.

The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of this year was 8.2%, of which industrial investment was still sluggish, the growth rate was only 3.2%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment reached 19.4%, which was significantly higher than the historical level.If the raised factors of infrastructure investment are excluded, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is only 4.8%, which shows that the government has increased the investment in infrastructure construction in order to stabilize the growth.It is impossible to maintain a trend of 6.7%.

In addition, the rise in real estate investment growth has also become an important factor in economic growth.In the first three quarters, the growth rate of real estate development investment was 5.8%, while the growth rate of last year was only 1%.The rise of real estate investment growth is also related to the promotion of real estate destocking policies introduced at the beginning of the year, that is, the central bank generally reduces the down payment ratio of residents' mortgage loans.The sales of commercial housing this year reached 8 trillion, the growth rate was 41.3%.The double rebound of real estate investment growth and sales growth has driven the development of many industries related to real estate, such as steel, cement and building materials industries, as well as downstream furniture, decoration, home appliances and other industries.

Therefore, the strong recovery of PMI data is related to the lagging effect brought by the continuous prosperity of the real estate industry for more than a year, and it is also related to the high -speed growth of infrastructure investment.If policy stimulus no longer continues, or the marginal effects are diminished, then the persistence of economic recovery is doubtful.

Whether it is high in investment

If the level of debt rates of Chinese government departments, corporate departments, and residential departments is not high, then even if the return on investment is relatively low, high investment can continue.The problem is that this year's government's fiscal budget deficit rate has reached 3%of the so-called security warning line. From the actual implementation, the fiscal deficit rate rate from January to September is 2.75%, which is very likely that the year is more than 3%.

According to Reuters, Liu Shangxi, Dean of the Institute of Fiscal Sciences, said that active fiscal policies this year are actually more active than seeing. The deficit rate of wide-caliber has actually reached 5-6%, because some debts are not counted.Such as special debt of some local governments.This means that the government's leverage will also be restricted by more and more.

As far as non -financial enterprise sectors are concerned, the current level of leverage (debt balance accounts for GDP) is generally estimated to be 160%, which is also the highest among countries around the world.Although some people think that the overall asset -liability ratio level of Chinese enterprises is not high, it is relatively not low, especially the state -owned enterprise (non -financial) asset -liability ratio of state -owned enterprises (non -financial) as of the end of September reached 66.3%.EssenceMoreover, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of fixed assets of state -owned enterprises reached 21%, which is destined that the level of leverage of state -owned enterprises will remain high, but the room for further leverage in the future should not be large.

In contrast, in the case of a decline in return on investment in private enterprises, the willingness to take the initiative to deleveraging is very strong. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was only 2.5%.However, in order to make money or avoid losses in the property market or avoid losses in the property market, the scale of mortgages increased significantly. In the first three quarters, housing loans reached 3.63 trillion, which did not include residents to buy houses by provident fund loans and consumer loans.In October, the government took measures such as restrictions on purchases and increased down payment, which led to a significant decline in real estate sales, which will slow down the speed of residents to increase leverage.

Therefore, from the analysis of the financial or financial status of the government, enterprises and residents, continuous high investment will further increase leverage and deteriorate the balance sheet, which is obviously not conducive to the healthy development of China's economy.Therefore, the government has taken cooling measures for the property market, and its purpose is to avoid the risks brought by high leverage of real estate developers and residents.

In view of the stable growth is also a very important task of the country, from the perspective of policy orientation in the next few years, the amount of investment should not be significantly reduced, and the risk prevention will be placed in the primary position. ThereforeUnder the premise of risk, economic growth takes the L shape.However, as the pressure on the deceleration of real estate investment next year will increase, and the low return rate of infrastructure investment will make it difficult to sustain its high growth, so the economy may be more difficult next year.

China's economic recovery still lacks external support

In the first three quarters of the United States, the economic growth rate reached 2.9%, and it became a brilliant PMI data, but the reasons behind it mainly contributed 0.8%by net exports.Increased export surplus is caused by factors such as weakening the US dollar and soybean prices soaring in South America's floods.In addition, the increase in inventory investment has contributed 0.6%to economic growth. Because exports and replenishment inventory are both short -term factor and are not sustainable, it is estimated that the annual growth rate of the US economy will not exceed 2%.

Since the recovery of the US economy in the second half of 2009, it mainly relies on quantitative loose monetary policy, but the employment status is not ideal. The loose monetary policy has led to the continuous expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor.In this background where the weak recovery is difficult to continue to raise interest rates, it is estimated that it is up to twice.In contrast, the European and Japanese economies have no signs of improvement.Since the beginning of this year, the price of commodity prices has just rebounded, because the basic pattern of excessive demand is difficult to change.

Throughout the economy of these developed countries around the world, there is almost no better one.In my opinion, a long -term reason is that the aging of the population has weakened demand.The aging of the population itself has no strong demand for the two largest consumer products of housing and cars. The process of urbanization has long been completed, and the liquidity of the population is close to zero.For example, the average age of the Japanese is 46, 10 years older than the Chinese, and the average age of most European countries is close to 40 years or more than 40.Among the large population countries, only India is the youngest and 10 years younger than China, so the most high growth potential.

Therefore, China is in a period of global economic recession, and it is difficult to expect economic recovery to get external support.

You can not have it both ways

Since China's economy has been difficult to benefit from the outside, the contribution of net exports to GDP has been negative over the years.In order to maintain medium and high -speed growth, the dependence on investment is getting greater.However, excessive investment will lead to a decline in return on investment. As a result, the economic structure is often distorted. To this end, structural reforms have emerged.

On the one hand, it is necessary to grow steadily, and on the other hand, we must promote reform and deleveraging. There seems to be contradictions in the short term.From the perspective of the economic history of various countries, the process of economic slowdown is the process of adding leverage, because the government is always willing to adopt a counter -cyclical policy to stimulate economic recovery.Really effective deleveraging, just like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, forcibly deleveraging through crisis.Therefore, there are very few cases of deleveraging without crisis.In the long run, can it be able to resolve structural problems through reform?I think this is just a beautiful assumption.Everyone is accustomed to looking forward to the future, but few people have refused to reflect on the adjustment of the structure for so many years, but the structural problems are becoming more and more severe?

Over the years, whether the PPP model is adopted or the debt -to -equity model, the purpose is to deleveraging. If the private capital is bundled with state -owned capital, you can share the country's investment costs.However, in the context of economic downturn, the willingness to invest in private capital is generally insufficient, and the demand for outflow is getting greater and greater, which makes it difficult for many tools to determine the effectiveness of reform.

If the economy can return to high growth, it can achieve deleveraging targets. For example, around 2000, the bad debt stripping of the four major banks in China will allow the four major asset management companies to digest them slowly.The reason why this model can succeed is because the income brought by high growth can be reached bad assets.Today, the economy is in the process of downside, and the method of deleveraging can only be solved by risk explosion, which is of course great destructive to the economy.

Now that we need to prevent risks and steadily grow, in the context of economic downturn and decline in labor productivity, the space of policy is becoming narrower and narrower, and the choice of room is getting smaller and smaller.This requires us to be more realistic, and don't have too much fantasy as in the past.When the past is better, you have not achieved so many goals, and it is even more difficult now.

In summary, I think the level of leverage in China's five years will still rise rapidly because high growth is no longer possible, and economic deceleration will not help deleveraging.However, the leverage can not be available, and it is good to be able to stabilize the leverage. By reducing investment, the level of leverage in the whole society can be stabilized. Of course, the price growth rate is further declined.In terms of improvement, the improvement should be better than the disadvantages.

The Tiger Management Fund, which has a global financial market, is known for its accurate stock selection, and its founder Julian Robinson is also famous as the godfather -level figures in the fund industry.Where is the secret of Robinson's success?Microsoft senior director Tren Griffin summarized the 12 classic investment concepts of Robinson for investors.

(The quoting block part of the article is Robinson's original words, and the rest comes to the author's comment)

Inspiration Flash -Careful Study -Big Note

A colleague of Robertson once said that once Robertson is convinced that his judgment is correct, he will take a big note.This is very similar to Soros and Druckenmiller.Obviously underestimated opportunities are not common, but as long as it appears, experts like Robertson will come out all.Deep research and analysis is obviously an indispensable process, and the series of characteristics of patience, discipline and chiefs have created Robertson's success.

Avoid the success rate of competition

Hedge funds and baseball games are the opposite.During the baseball game, if you are in a weak team, even if you wave a home run, you may have no impact on the results of the game; 400 Anna may not be able to take a score once.And if you are in a league strong team, even if the power is not particularly high, you have more opportunities to score.

The transactions of hedge funds are different, and the average result of each shot determines the final income.And, in a relatively weak market, you have greater opportunities to make a profit.It is not difficult to understand that the level of pitcher is relatively low in the low -level league (baseball game), so it is obviously easier to successfully hit.For example, if we have involved in the Korean stock market before other investors, then we have more opportunities to benefit; when Japanese stocks have been noticed by other investors, "ambush" will also make us more advantageous.

The true meaning of the hedge fund industry is to find the market that has not been developed and carefully studies to make a profit.

If I are young enough, I will consider investing in Africa.

Buffett once said that if he wants to defeat Bobby Fisher (chess master), don't play international chess with him."The important thing is to find a relatively weak competitor in the market and get a breakthrough from it. If you play a card for an hour and a half, you haven't found anyone who is a fool, that is the idiot."

When Buffett's old partner Charlie Munger was asked when asked about the person who wanted to thank the most in his life, he joked that his wife Nancy's ex -husband was the one he should most than grateful."Because that person is a drunk. This kind of competitiveness has made me completely win the voucher."

Multi -short strategy

I believe that the most ideal way of trading is to shorten some stocks while shorting some stocks.My theoretical basis is: If the 50 major "bull stocks" you choose can still run the 50 "bear stocks" you choose, then you should not do this line.

The so -called multi -short strategy is to consider making more and short stocks from hedging risks.Now many hedge funds do not make any hedging itself, but Robertson likes to be short -valued stocks.The so -called "little tiger" after Robertson also chose a long and short strategy.Data show that the total scale of the fund currently adopted by this strategy has reached US $ 687 billion.

The way of long -term profit is to avoid major losses

Robertson believes that the primary task of hedge funds is to win the market when the market is bad.Multi -short strategies can indeed provide a certain hedging effect, and another way to avoid big losses is to buy those varieties that are clearly undervalued when the market is poor.As long as the entry price is appropriate, the safe margin will mean that investors can advance and retreat.

Choose the right company to short

Those companies with poor management, short -term companies that are in the downward cycle or are seriously overestimated in the market misunderstood.

Become the only decision maker

Robertson distributes many research and analysis to other people, but he is always alone.Hedge Fund Letters once said, "Researchers in different industries will give Robertson a variety of suggestions, and then he make the final decision. As long as he is convinced, he will bet on big bets. After the market is completed, if the market changes, he will also consider it. He will also considerAdd positions or liquidation. "Obviously, a good researcher may not be a good decision maker.Real shooters need excellent emotional control -many times the errors of investors are not caused by analysis, but caused by psychological fluctuations.

Avoid gold

I never regard gold as a way to invest.The supply and demand relationship cannot be reflected in gold.The insights of spiritual experts in the gold field may be better than me.

The foundation of gold transactions is the prediction of human nature. This is not investment, but speculation.Gold trading is similar to Keynes' beauty voting theory -in the beauty pageant, the final result has nothing to do with who is the most beautiful woman.What people want to care about is how to predict who thinks the most beautiful, or others think others think.


Management funds are a lifelong career, and you may need to invest 24 hours a day.

Many billionaires in the financial and scientific and technological circles regard charity as the only alternative of essential causes.And hedge funds are by no means lazy people who can survive.Roberto Mignone, director of Bridger Management, once said, "In Chicago, if you look at it for 4 years as a cycle, the survival rate of drug dealers selling methamphetamine is higher than that of Ying Fund."

There is no such thing as a thousand miles

Hedge funds are an industry with a cumulative reputation.The accumulated results will eventually help you succeed.The stronger Matthew effect of the strong strong and weak means that only by stable profit can the fund's scale rolling and larger to form a virtuous circle.

Recognize yourself to see light criticism

I remember the Business Weekly as a cover and describing me as "the greatest fund manager in the world".Such a big hat impressed me.However, three years later, the same author made the most sharp criticism of me.From Gu Feng to the bottom of the valley, it can indeed make people recognize themselves.The praise and criticism of the outside world are not so important.

It is ridiculous to affect your judgment because of the opinions of others.Most people are unprepared to accuse, but as General Steve said in World War II, "don't let those bad guys knock you down."No one can see flowers like RMB (pizza).

Know how to advance

(March 2000) The way the market runs is already unspeakable by my 67 -year -old old man.I can't persuade investment to participate in a market that I can't understand.So I think it's time to return the funds to the investment.I don't want me to say: He was still asking the yen offer before he died.

The market is always changing, and the strategy used in the past may make you defeat in the future.Many successful investors know how to retreat.In 1969, Buffett also stated in his investor letter that because he couldn't find the right opportunity, he decided to liquidate the fund.

Training interest from a young age

When I first came into contact with the stock, I was only 6 years old.I still remember that my parents went out to travel, and my grandmother was with me.There is a company called United Corp on a newspaper she shows me at a company with a stock price of $ 1.25.I realized that I could also save money to buy the company's stock.So I started to pay attention to the company's stock price, which gradually stimulated my interest in the stock market.

If you want to cultivate children's investment interest, it is best to infuse some of the key ideas from an early age.Give them some real gold and silver, no need to be too much, real experience is meaningful.Buffett also believes that if a person can succeed may be seen from an early age.As for what university I grew up, I may not have much effect.The earlier contact, the greater the chance of success in the future.

The promotion of discipline and regulations is difficult, especially the unprecedented and commonly -rational stations are more difficult to implement. After all, people are humans.This may be the reason why fund management is difficult to popularize, and the technical analysis is excessive.

1. This life is immersed in this dream, but I hope to be drunk and unwilling to wake up

If a purchaser is extremely scarce when his purchase funds are very scarce, someone is willing to pay 10%of the payment for him, so that he can purchase 10%of the goods, and he will be ecstatic.Top the brain and have no square, but it actually dropped in the sky

The next big pie.In real life, in the futures market, in the futures market, with one enemy ten, a small and well -chasing wealth effect can make most people dance and forget why.No future, who can imagine a little book

What about gold for more than ten times?

Most futures traders are in a state of high excitement and unable to be in their own. In the market with high risk of futures, full -warehouses and half -warehouses.The state, said that it was half drunk and half awake.

From the perspective of all traders, this is the closest moment of wealth from themselves in their lives. In their less sober consciousness, the corruption life of wealth, dreams, flowers, and drunk gold fans is simply at hand;To his own wealth is swallowed ruthlessly.

I was immersed in this dream, and I hope I want to wake up.It is the living state of most futures traders.

2. Fund management exactly like Yan Father. Thousands of technical analysis styles

资金管理刻板、机械、不近人情、热点资讯不通常理,像一个天天板着面孔、寡言少语的严父;而技术分析则不同,Cheap Reps技术分析海纳百川、博大精深,所有在市场中的热点资讯贪念、

The idea of hallucinations, unrealistic, and self -deception will be supported by her.It is like a woman with a variety of styles and a merit. Whoever approaches her will experience the affectionate and affectionate models and cannot extricate herself; she will blog

The big gentleness township can be called beginner, immature traders lingering, unforgettable and not thinking.Based on the market analysis she made by the air and various parties, the winner and the loser also made a judgment of surge and decline based on her. All traders' desires and greed

Greater will get technical analysis and care.The technical analysis may be neutral. The transaction determines the subjective state and rationality of the trader.

The state of arrogance, blurred consciousness, and drunk make itself to losses, losses, and re -losses.

Many traders would rather litage for dozens of times and did not want to receive fund management.I know a friend

It is also a trader with a tenth drunken state.He told me: He is waiting for the opportunity now, and the technical indicator tells him that the opportunity is coming. The reason why he is obsessed with the technical analysis that understands and understands it is that he can have no restraint.

Kill out of the warehouse.He never talked to you about the killing of the whole warehouse tiger, and a tiger buttocks with only half of his body stopped.

If he knows a little instead of refusing to manage funds, he can have obtained a chance to survive.

Third, technical analysis more support wrong judgment of support errors

As I said, it ’s a technical analysis when you are empty and dependent on, and the winners and losers are in the same form and indicators. In the end, why are two fate and two endings.The real victory here is the transaction strategy, risk control and capital management, and fundamental analysis.

Why do you say that technical analysis is more supportive judgment, because the errors and losers often ignore trading strategies, risk control and capital management, and fundamental analysis, and put more time into technical analysis.So

For losers, technical analysis supports his wrong judgment.As far as the victory and losses are concerned, the people who lose money are more "benefit" than the winner to technical analysis. The technical analysis also returns the so -called love of the loser in this way.


Fourth, technical analysis control is to get rid of the restraint of fund management

If there are only 0.3%-0.5%of traders who really make money in the futures market, only a few people in the thousandth of thousands of people believe that they all believe in fund management, not technical analysis.

I once said with a co -owner who did not make money: You might as well operate with 1/10 of the funds to use the virtual disk as a real disk.He told me: Then I might as well be a stock.In their consciousness, it has always been dominated by the so -called wealth effect of the futures.

Technical analysis control is to get rid of the shackles of fund management, but the gap between their dreams and reality is not fund management, but technical analysis.

The technical analysis and control have a characteristic that in the communication with you, their expressions inside and outside: After the technical analysis, you can enter the warehouse, the floating profit is added, and the profit is like snow.Don't talk about fund management, in their eyes

The half -warehouse and 1/3 positions are all low -energy performance.Although they burst out hundreds of times, they still encouraged them to be ten times a year of half a year and a hundred times a year.It can be described as perseverance and firm will.

5. Fund management will continue a dream

The technical analysis makes the futures market a dream of continuing and passing, and countless traders are trapped in the waves and goes forward.A huge loss and no reunion may be a good medicine that wakes them up.Although some traders who are far away from this market, for futures, they would rather choose to leave the market without trying to try fund management.

If futures traders are illusory and want to enter a non -non -non -non -non -drunk state, full -warehouse transactions are fantasy and drugs for them.Fund management is a good medicine for abstinence.Fund management will continue a dream.

1. Shareholders asked, "When can we let us see Gree's private car?"

Mr. Dong: "After the acquisition, you can let you see the car next year."

2. President Dong: I recently saw some objections on the Internet and said that the acquisition of Yinlong was wrong. Dong Mingzhu hadn't made mistakes yet. You can say that.If it was wrong, I cooperated with BYD three years ago, I didn't.More companies come to us, Tesla comes to us.

3. We will not think for individual shareholders, so -called shareholders, and speculators. If you trust Gree, you will hold your life for a lifetime.Gree did not treat you at a loss, and I would not say this at all.Look at which one like this company will give you dividends like this?I won't give you a dividend in 5 years, what can you do?What qualifications do you have to give you more and more proud.

4. To tell the truth, I came in today to open a shareholders' meeting. This is the only one who has not applauded. I think everyone may bring their own different thoughts.

5. We can buy Yinlong to talk about re -building a 100 billion enterprise.Just now we also talked about Wei Wei's results in 3 years and absolutely killed him.

6. The development of enterprises cannot be a follow -up enterprise, but to truly become a creative enterprise.

7. You go to Gree's exhibition hall to see the washing machine and refrigerator, but I do n’t play Gree, because Gree represents a high -end image.However, in the future, Yinlong cars must have a Gree logo, and all parts of China are running Gree cars, and the car has a sentence: "Let the world fall in love with China."

7. Since I bought Yinlong 13 billion, I would bring me a billion -dollar enterprise.And I believe in our ability. Here I dare to say this. As long as we have the ability, we can earn back 13 billion or three years.The profit is saved. Gree can double the profit of the air -conditioning in 3 years. Yinlong has taken one year to make a double. It is not a problem.

8. I only care about what companies will be in 5 years and what will happen in 10 years.I believe Gree Electric will become a worldwide enterprise, and its technology allows it to enter the Fortune 500. I am very confident.As for the market value, we believe that as the profit of the company changes, the market value will also change, and if it does not change, it will be recovered.

Shareholders: I would like to ask President Dong. Do you have a mind to lay out new energy vehicles last year?

Dong: Although your question is very simple, the answer is complicated.I bought Japanese dual -power and hybrid cars a few years ago. We know that the development of the home appliance industry requires some related technologies to reserve.The future is the era of intelligence. The most indispensable home appliance industry is energy storage equipment.BYD once found us, we did not agree because we saw the support of the technical behind.

Many people do not understand, including the Internet that the rights and interests of our shareholders are diluted. This is actually looking at a point from their own perspectives. It is not comprehensive. I think Yinlong is a gold that has been buried in the sand for a long time.To this day, not only I realize that the relevant departments also recognize its value.Now I am inviting investment from top to bottom, and wants Yinlong as a phoenix to lead them.

From our analysis of technology, why buy it?First, its technology must not exceed him in China. His technology is the most advanced in the world.Although they are all batteries, their performance characteristics, currently no battery can compete with it from a technical perspective.The second is whether it can be operated safely. Traditional batteries can be charged for several hours, and this battery can be fully full.From the perspective of security and the future development direction, we are unique. We agree with its technology.

The most important thing for this technology is its service life. I have used hybrid power. I have to change the battery for more than two years. Even if the battery is not used, the battery is exhausted.I have used a mixed power vehicle in Japan. I replaced the battery about 4 times in ten years.In the process of using, it has been exhausted, and 90%may be supported by oil, and did not measure income from the perspective of consumer.This battery does not need consumers to have costs within ten years. Any problem is borne by the enterprise. People have the courage to say this, because core technology is supporting.

Shareholders: When can we see Gree's private car?

Dong: After the acquisition, you can let you see the car next year.

(Shareholders: Really?)

Dong: Of course, this is not President Wei said, this is what I said here.The projection was not released just now. Now the buses are pushed away in Zhuhai immediately. You can see ... (Shareholders: We can't drive the bus, we can only take it), let's talk about the beauty of the bus now.(Say it to the side, open the video and play).

Bian PPT is the bus running in Beijing, and the upper right corner is also Beijing.Now all places are required to build cars according to their local style. We hope that one day our car is a landscape in the city of China.This is our identification of the product.

As a bus bus, Yinlong has such a technology. We assume that no user will be irresponsible to their lives. With so many technical support, I believe that the only choice of (user) can only be Yinlong, orThe bus must purchase my battery.If my battery is not sold, it means that my occupying half of the market in China sells in the world, at least I have 100,000 bus (order).I am a conservative number, this is absolutely okay, I am very confident.From the perspective of Yinlong's situation, the situation is very good. For Gree, this acquisition is a tiger.Why does Gree have exceeded 40%of the air conditioning field.People have their own love, each has their own choices, and some people choose a family relationship. Various reasons lead to the brand that will not buy Gree, but Gree has relying on its technology and integrity.It is the immortal that there is no way to get it, and must expand.This is the first reason.

The second reason is that Gree's profit from 6%in 2011 to 13%of last year's 2015 also tried his best. The profit has doubled. As for your investors, what else is there?Your investors have invested some money. This is the business team that really creates wealth and the team of this enterprise.I hope everyone must understand what I said, no neuropathy throw money away.If this is the case, my profits will not be doubled in three years.We are doing our best to be a company, not just to make money.We can move towards the world for Chinese brands, so that the world can agree with Chinese manufacturing and work hard.Don't underestimate Gree Electric's for their own profits. To be honest, a shareholder talked to me this morning. What industry can be created 13%of the profit?Da central enterprises may not have this profit.Which of the home appliance industry can have me so much? In addition to air -conditioning in the home appliance industry, it can be said that because of our air -conditioning to drive the development of the industry.I do n’t say anything else, I do n’t name it. Which business owner can do 100 billion yuan, not to mention 100 billion levels, and you have to fly in two or three billion wings.But my Dong Mingzhu is alone until today.Some people say why, a large enterprise such as 100 billion yuan is good to go out to help you wash clothes.I said that it was a waste, and I had to stay in the ticket. I mean 10 days of rent 10 days outside. Can I not afford it?It can afford it, not to mention this is not my Dong Mingzhu's money, but I think this is a benefit!We should all save the benefits of earning a penny for enterprises.What do we do? I recently saw some objections on the Internet and said that the acquisition of Yinlong was wrong. Dong Mingzhu had not made mistakes yet.If it was wrong, I cooperated with BYD three years ago. I did n’t. More companies came to us, and Tesla came to us.So more, we acquire Yinlong is not for the benefit in front of our eyes. How high the stocks can be fired. You have issued a wealth of stocks and throw it off.

I am not responsible for speculators, I am responsible for investors.You should not invest with me how to talk to me. You tell me if Gree can develop for 100 years.You are really valuable to study these things.I believe that we accelerate the rectification of progress after acquiring Yinlong. Although President Wei did well, it was not enough from our eyes.Why not enough?If I look from my eyes, I can't do it after 3 years.Because it is really meaningless to live for ourselves.

Of course, compared with some private enterprises, we are worth tens of billions of dollars, what are we.But I think I am proud, because I can see the shadow of Gree everywhere in the world. This is value.How many friends I go out can send a photo to any country saying that I saw Gree Air Conditioning here.This is value, this is pride.I am not proud of my prosperity. I am a few brands for Gree to go out in the world (proud) in the world (proud). This is the development of Gree.

We will not think for individual shareholders, so -called shareholders, and speculators. If you trust Gree, you will hold your life for a lifetime.Gree did not treat you at a loss, and I would not say this at all.Look at which one like this company will give you dividends like this?I won't give you a dividend in 5 years, what can you do?What qualifications do you have to give you more and more proud.In 2 years, I will give you a 180 million 100 million. You can see which company has given you so much.Isn't money very good, isn't there any company doing well?The dividend is not half half of me. The tax is only half of me. What is this?This is the social responsibility of an enterprise, and an entrepreneur should fulfill its responsibilities.So to tell the truth, I came in to open a shareholders' meeting today. This is the only one who has not applauded. I think everyone may bring their own different minds.

If you do n’t trust Gree, you can throw off the stock. Trust Gree should firmly believe that Gree people can have no profit margins from 1 billion and 1%.Do you rely on you?It is our heart.So I just said why this question should be answered a little longer and more.Of course, the more people who want to support us. The more I think the people who support us also support him and invest in a good stock.It is really an investor. There are some funds here today. Of course, you can buy other stocks to do what to do with high and fry.EssenceOur stock market is also very important for society's stability.You know what this person thinks when you throw away someone to take off one day.So we try to create an environment as much as possible to encourage everyone to invest in for a long time.

Just now you say that we have also had a hurry to sell stocks because of the stock price. At that time, the stock price was high. I think this is completely allowed.However, some people poured them out there. If we still advocate to do it with him, then I feel that it violates the responsibility of our entrepreneurs and it also violates the entrepreneur's conscience.

Made in China is now talking about innovation from the central to local, how to innovate, and what new do we even control core technologies?What is the innovation of all core components to make a new thing?Therefore, Gree has invested a lot of research and development to master the core technology.Our acquisition of Yinlong can tell that there is no problem with building a 100 billion enterprise.Just now we also talked about Wei Wei's results in 3 years and absolutely killed him.What is that is 10 billion.But I believe that Gree is more than 100 billion yuan. The air conditioner in the next 10 or even 20 years I believe no one can surpass, because we keep in mind that when you become a benchmark, your enemy has chased you.What is your direction is to create new things and create a new market.We soberly realize that the development of the enterprise cannot do follow -up (enterprise), but to truly become a creative enterprise.You have to change the lives of others and bring a healthy life and convenient life to others. Of course, there are many.After we acquire this battery, we speed up energy storage equipment.The biggest problem with energy storage equipment is our environmental protection issue, and environmental pollution is becoming increasingly serious.Those who come from the north know that the haze is known. If all energy storage equipment is used to change the current electricity method, I see that the haze is about to eliminate more than half.

I also believe that our lithium titanate batteries are upgraded through our technology, and it will not be like this today.If the air conditioner was such an idea that year, the air conditioner would not have changed today.Therefore, our technology must be continuously upgraded, and our goal has no opponents at all. Our goal is consumers.You make a market that he is satisfied with, and you have a market. How can you follow (others) have a market?It is impossible to have a market.And our bus is also recognized internationally. Just now, I do n’t know if the news is not disclosed. I revealed here that France has set our car. Do you think the car is advanced?So I think the only thing that can let him run in the Northeast is this battery.

So I think these aspects are used up, we are all using it ourselves, like our mobile phone, of course, still talking about our mobile phones, online, I have to watch it, and I scold me.What do you have to do with you and I have something to do with you? If you are my employees scolding me, I still feel convinced.What the employees say, why do you make a mobile phone? We do n’t make money, so I have to say.You can't get it with me, what does my phone have to do with you?My mobile phone is for consumers to be satisfied. I believe that the future mobile phone market must be mine.

I have n’t been sold until now, because I have to know that I have to repeat it many times, and I have to make a perfect product.My phone has fallen 50 times. Someone said on the Internet that any mobile phone can fall -do you not believe that you fell your phone 50 times like me, do you see you bad?

Tell you, there are other functions, you go to take care of you better, I have all you want, but I tell you that we now find a new direction.We also study here every day.One day, I want to do my mobile phone, everyone agrees with me, and now I find me with too many consumers who buy the second and third stations.But I haven't really pushed the market yet, but I am very confident that some people come from buying the second and third.When you buy one alone, you will never come to buy it again, and there is no behind the big market.You only have a market that trusts you.Then I'm not good at it, I don't want to do too much. I just need to make 10 million units and I am tens of billions, right?My washing machine also came out. You went to the exhibition hall to see the washing machine and the refrigerator, but I did not hit Gree, because Gree represents the high -end image.

But in the future, Yinlong cars must play the Gree logo.And say that all parts of China are running Gree cars, (laughing and applauding) The car in the car "let the world fall in love with China".We are confident.Some people say that they oppose and some people say voting. I don't really say in various ways.If these are real shareholders and real investors, they will definitely raise their hands in favor, and stand up and agree.When Yinlong does not acquire, we will encounter shortcomings below immediately. What should I do if smart appliances?After all the living appliances are connected, a series of issues are placed here with the city grid.It's not that I ask Yinlong to buy him. He can't give me 10 yuan. He wants to sell 20 yuan.Is it a good thing?Recently, Yinlong is particularly busy, and I talk about this (excellent) company. We have worked overtime every day. From August to now, we work overtime every day.However, Yinlong has no rest. From 6 am to 12 pm, their workers are scolding people, there is no way!Sometimes at a node is desperate.

Therefore, I hope that everyone can understand us. To be honest, from my personal perspective, I am not worth tens of billions of dollars like others, and I do n’t have this desire. I can enjoy it according to age. I do more today.No matter how good it is, I personally use it, but since I pick up this (burden), so many employees do not say, but still think of Chinese brands.

Now we already have 7 research institutes. If there are people who are not related to our industry today, people can let you go to see our mold factory.You can see the appearance of the air conditioner because we control the mold.Not only do we open up for ourselves, but now we have been modeling for many factories and many companies in the world.Why do others find you? We are different from others.What we think of is not only the development of the enterprise itself, but also the things we have to take into account for a country and a society.Anyway, the third quarter of this year's report came out immediately, and you let me make a lot of profit, and I said I have done my best.Regardless of the internal control and the control of product quality, we have maximized.However, we still have the opportunity to work for intelligent equipment. There is a video of intelligent equipment to see. Look at the technical transformation of our intelligent equipment for Yinlong. We do n’t say it. Look at this point.

(Part of the part of the recording below, but some netizens compiled the content)

Shareholders: Tesla opened hundreds of patents in order to promote his technology, and Yinlong also for this purpose.Excuse me, President Wei, you said on November 21 that the battery manufacturing technology is open to the whole society and serves the society. Is this competitive advantage of Yinlong in the lithium battery industry?

Wei: I briefly answer your questions and open battery technology. What I am talking about is also the words of lungs. If a technology is controlled in the hands of a business, it is difficult to form a huge market, and the core technology is not open battery manufacturing technology and battery manufacturing process.Because we also have a more core, "control both ends and let go of the middle.""Both ends" are the source of nano -materials that are not open. "Lay in the middle" is a huge industrial chain. It requires all aspects of society to participate in and mobilize the positive factors of society to promote consumption and promote the market to greaterly.Acid batteries and energy storage batteries are very large in this market. One silver, one Gree, and ten Gree cannot be done at all.Therefore, Yinlong announced the opening of the battery manufacturing process and the whole set of equipment. We are sincere, and the purpose is to form a huge market early.This is my question that I answered you. Yinlong's development plan is to control both ends and let go of the middle.Apple is also in the middle of both ends, so Apple's profits are not low and the possession is very large.Therefore, this is also an industrial enterprise. The transformation of manufacturing methods in the next decades is also a transformation of the technology market. Any new technologies need to quickly cultivate the market and expand the market. It has no harm to enterprises.Like a person, if ARM is controlled in his own hands, maybe no one is purchased by the ARM chip now, and the benefits cannot be played.This is a development strategy of Yinlong, which is to control both ends and let go of the middle. The larger the billions of (number) in the middle industry chain, the higher our share.Thanks!Question: Is nano -technology mastering in your own hands?We acquired a US listed company (Oita nano -technology in the United States), lithium titanate is just a product of him. If it is processed with our material technology, any battery material includes graphene can be dry at any time.We acquired this company not only for lithium titanate, but this may be mistaken for everyone in the past.Lithium titanium titanate is just one of the most mature products of Otita nano company, which is also called nano -technology company. He can change many materials through his patented technology, called stone nano -making technology, and change the molecular structure.There are two points behind China's manufacturing behind, one is the material, and the other is the mold. The mold industry in China has gone up, and the process of Chinese industrial products has gone up; China's raw materials nanotechnology has mastered it, and the core backward issue of Chinese industrial products issolved.Question: There is another question. In "Red Weekly", I saw that 1,000 units in Zhongxinyang, Guangdong, were very big. After a few days, "Red Weekly" posted another article to question the company. Ask you.Wei: Look at the order with a normal mentality. If Yinlong rely on a order, it will not succeed.Our day and night equipment is constantly, and the executives work 13 hours.The order rows until next year, how much money is not available this year.I only know this order on the Internet. I have read it for a long time and the analysis is very detailed.There are many people in Heiyinlong, He Gree, and you can't get your stock to two cents.I didn't take it seriously.Without sales conditions, Yinlong will not give him a car.

Shareholders: The company now implements ten years of leasing. Is the income spliming in ten years?

Wei: The business model is "zero -dollar vehicle, ten -year lease, ten -year warranty, vehicle replacement, and win -win situation." This is a model created by the overall team. Win -win is a manufacturer, users, governments, and financial institutions.The Quartet jointly achieves consensus under the same conditions.After the technology model is transformed into a financial model, the business model enters the market. This model does not have installment payment.In the first stage, industrial products became financial products.As soon as the factory was leaving the factory, it received 100 % payment by financial institutions, and financial institutions bought products.The second stage is leased to customers in financial institutions. It is divided into ten years, and the principal plus appropriate profits.Figure a long -term return.There is no one -time sales.This is a question of allocation of income.

Shareholders: When will the SUV go on the market?

Wei: Last year, the State Council of the New Energy Vehicle had six documents. It formulated a strategy of pure electric -based. Automobile production involved the country's policies and the issue of production qualifications.In the future, Yinlong will definitely be the main company of electric vehicles and energy storage.R & D and returning to research and development, technical reserves are also one of them.Any high -tech product is a slow process.This is commercial secret, and it is not too much to talk about.

Question: What about the charging time of lithium carbonate buses?

Wei: Now we are the fastest for 3 minutes.The road is within 200km in the urban bus.At the end of this year, four main lines.2000km.There is a charging pile every 50km.Both nets have been done, and the community lives, supporting charging.In the past, only 5%were required. Now all the communities must have 100%charging capacity.There are no rare problems with charging.

Shareholders: Last time I took a bus in Beijing, the price of Yinlong Bus cost more than 3 million.

Wei: You must not ask the real user. No one gives me more than 3 million.The double -layer car has more than 2 million frames and more than 1 million after state subsidies.Now exports are more than 2 million.Any industrial products cannot be reduced without cost.As long as you look at the scale of investment and production capacity, the greater the production capacity, the lower the cost.Looking at LCD TVs, it costs 300,000 square meters ten years ago.The car has not increased the price. It was more than 200,000 in Honda 20 years ago. Now the price is to rely on large -scale production capacity to lower the cost.(How much is the current price profit?) The profit is not reported to you casually, but there is no subsidy, and the competitiveness in the international market is very strong.I can only tell you that, China's electric vehicles are very rich in profits and strong competitiveness.You cannot only aim at national subsidies. New energy vehicles have entered the international market. Not only are zero emissions, but the price is lower than that of fuel vehicles.

Question: Can Yinlong technology comparable to BYD.

Wei: I can't answer you in this words. In case you are both Gree's shareholders and BYD shareholders.Let the market speak, it is best to interview my customers, or use BYD's cars and Yinlong cars. You ask such customers to be the most convincing power. I can't evaluate their peers casually.

Question: How to evaluate the technical route?

Wei: The same is true of this truth. Putting on the same, Gree air conditioners, customers are the most convincing.Any technology has wiped out the market in the same industry. It is not realistic to buy your products. The personalization of customers and the actual needs of customers have different demands for different technologies, processes, and prices.Just like buying shoes, 20,000 shoes and 20 shoes can be worn on the feet, and customers will choose according to their needs.

Question: On the issue of battery life, whether the lithium titanate battery is shorter.

Wei: I actually answered your question just now. We can create nuclear -powered aircraft carriers. There is no problem with nuclear power. The submarines are all nuclear power.But why don't you need to re -train airplane ship?The highest energy density is the power assembly of the so -called nuclear -powered submarine, uranium -third -generation nuclear fuel.Different market positioning is different.You want to say that the higher the energy density, the greater the risk, and the oil.Some of the cars running on the road will add four fuel tanks. Once the car is on fire, the driver will die as soon as possible.It is not that the higher the energy, the better. Energy density and other important indicators: safety, life, cost -effectiveness, use environment, customer demands are inseparable, and light energy density cannot solve problems.For example, the long -distance electric vehicle on the market must carry 5 or 6 tons of batteries at night for 8 hours, carrying it during the day, and running to the evening one after another.The country advocates energy conservation and emission reduction. If a low weight of a few tons is used, the accounts calculated by cost -effectiveness for 10 years, customer losses, profitable units, and operating efficiency instead of fuel vehicles., Loss, operating efficiency 100 guarantees, the most demanding technology in the automotive industry is buses, and no vehicles must maintain operating efficiency, maintain time, keep driving, and safeguard safety like buses.Bus, we think it is unscientific and unreasonable. With 4 sets of batteries in 10 years, how much energy does 20 tons consume and how much cost. And we can use 2 tons of battery for 10 years.Third, customers will settle accounts. Customers need to run for ten years. Why do we need financial leasing and operation of Sifang, we have been guaranteed for ten years, and no one dares to protect high -energy density in the market for ten years. Who do you choose to be a customer?Can't help you make a decision, I just help you calculate the account. Ten years of Yinlong's technology bus company not only does not lose money, but it becomes the same passenger flow and the same fare (under the circumstances).Responsibility is irreversible. Then who you choose as a user, you make a decision as a user.

Shareholders: We are lithium titanate. In the future, the main application direction is positioned in buses and energy storage. Isn't it so great in passenger cars?

Wei: No existence, first replace lead -acid batteries, replace all UPS in the market, and replace lead acid in the industry industry in the market. Titanic acid is the most competitive.Because he has a long life, high safety, high and low temperature, but the current capacity is small, and the cost has not been reduced. If it can be like the current lead acid -China currently produces lead -acid batteries in 680 companies, of which 10 billion fixed assets are 10Home.Then you have to concentrate these money to dry titanate, and we are even lower than lead acid.This is a market.As for the energy storage market, each family in a community uses 2030 degrees electricity storage energy to replace the family energy reserve.How much energy storage is needed.Of course, this problem also involves small production capacity and high cost.Some users only count the economic accounts and are not environmentally friendly.Therefore, this market field is not limited to bus. The bus is only the most competitive starting point at present, so it developed the bus first.This entry point has all the conditions for profit, manufacturing, and production. From this in, enterprises must continue to accumulate profits, expand production capacity, reduce costs, and continuously expand the market.

Question: President Wei is asking a question. Other electric vehicles are about to charging for an hour, Yinlong is a few minutes, and the response to the charging current increases many times.Will the national construction charging piles consider the demand for the large current of Yinlong?

Wei: If you pay attention to the media, Deputy Prime Minister Ma Kai came to Shenzhen last last to investigate all industries in the country. It has made a decision across the country. It turns out that fast charging has impact on the power grid, so now tell you that fast charging does not have the power grid.Intellectuals are more protected than slow charging.Because slow charging is the same charging, fast charging is rushing, the installation capacity of the stand -alone machine is much smaller than the slow charging, and the fast charging pile is more than 10 units a day, and the slow charging is one pile.It wasn't until last year that this misunderstanding was investigated by the Prime Minister in Shenzhen, restored its reputation.You can go to the scene to visit and investigate. Zhuhai has both slow charging and fast charging.You can ask the electric power company and the bus company. Just in Zhuhai, you will know the total installation machine capacity. Thank you!(The country's charging piles will be compatible with each other in the future, and there will be no such situation that I will not drive the current.) If this is the case), it will not restore the same subsidy conditions. This is the policy restoration.To science and reason.(Is it only your company possessed by fast charging, will other companies be?) (Wei Express interrupted) Now the other manufacturers have done it. It turned out that because there was no such battery, no one used to produce fast charging piles.Now the national charging equipment, no matter who invests and who builds and produces, has the conditions that can be fast or slow.(If there is a fast charging, it is convenient.) Yes, now things are intelligent. You can drive slowly and the charging station can accept. You drive the fast charging car to the charging station.Intelligent charging equipment has been widespread.All charging technologies now have batteries that have a temper of various materials.(I saw the charging current of the bus 200 degrees of Anpei.) 250A, right?This is a national standard, and it is enough to take dozens of safety.

Shareholders: President Wei wants to ask. We believe that Gree's management and all votes agree.As an retail, I believe Gree's management has a vision.I have a few cars myself. I want to ask if Yinlong's technology is likely to make a sports car as an image, just like Tesla in the United States or Trash (audience laughs). Is it possible that there will be a sports car in a few years.Well, as an image, does the current technology reach?

Wei: I can only answer you today. All the internal combustion motor vehicles are lithium titanium titanate is the most suitable for sports cars (applause) and even internal combustion engine diesel engines and gasoline engines are competing with lithium titanate.Because the discharge multiplier is 100C, the discharge multiplier can be called acceleration and initial torque, and only lithium titanate is the most suitable.Of course, whether you can build a sports car in the future, another shareholder just said that it is not what you want to build, and the country will give you a license.We try to adopt your opinions as much as possible, and hope that you will call for the production qualifications to let go of the national authorities as soon as possible, thank you!

(The part of the recording is over here)

Shareholders: Hello, I want to ask a few questions. The first is how many times the cost of the battery compared with BYD?I used to look at it 4 times before. I don't know how much now, but the unit battery capacity. How much is the price difference?The second question is that you said that 10 billion sales this year and 30 billion sales next year. How is this sales goal achieved?What is the calculation based on the current order?What are the urban buses and dedicated vehicles in these sales?There is also a question of what the order structure is, that is, how much market -oriented orders are, that is, deducting orders with shareholders' background or investment (related parties). How much is the proportion of market -oriented orders?

Wei: You have 3 or 4 problems, one is about the cost of lithium titanate.Lithium titanium titanate was in the United States for military civilian more than ten years ago. Who has been to Hawaii?The electricity for lighting at Hawaii was used for the energy storage of Oto Titanium batteries.Because Hawaii is an isolated island, all use wind power and photovoltaic power generation.At that time, the battery cost was 12 times that of the battery cost when the Titanium was acquired.Compared with BYD, the cost of battery is still as high as 50%-60%, and it has dropped from more than ten times to 50%-60%higher than the lithium iron phosphate battery. As production capacity expands, it will be shortened and closer.However, the cost of lithium titanate batteries has the advantage of competing with lithium iron phosphate because we have a long life span.

Dong inserted: Talking about the service life, it (lithium iron phosphate) has to change a set of batteries in 3-4 years, and the other I mentioned just now needs to be continuously upgraded. The third is that their (Yinlong) is too small in size.If you turn it 10 times, the cost and processing cost (will decrease), people are unchanged, and in fact management costs decline.

Shareholders' question: BYD's costs will also decrease.

Wei: There is a downlink limit, raw materials, and so on.However, the lithium iron phosphate capacity now accounts for 900 million per billion in the country, and the remaining 10%is ternary lithium and lithium titanate.Now lithium titanium titanium will become more and more hot. Recently, it is very hot. Many of us want to be technical. Many of them are lithium iron phosphate (direction).Yinlong is also one of the veterans of the 5 major iron phosphate companies in China. I abandoned lithium iron phosphate. I simply answer you.This profit output value forecast is predicted based on sales orders, because the battery may not be able to meet the requirements of the production capacity several times now. Now many large car manufacturers are in charge of the battery, and now we dare not pick up the battery order.Next year will be strategically cultivating major customers and cultivation brands.Only two are supplied to this year, and next year will provide battery products from the top ten passenger car manufacturers, which are expanding capacity.It is not enough to use it now. This is about two aspects of profit forecast.

Shareholders 'question: There is also an order structure, eliminating the shareholders' background and the order from the local government in the local government?

Wei: At the beginning, you are right. We are based on Zhuhai and Shijiazhuang. We have factories in the local area or by government support. It is definitely relying in the initial stage, but this problem does not exist in 2016 and future orders.And now we have opened the sales channels to see the coverage rate of our customer, more than 20 provinces, how many cities, and this year, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have entered. We have no investment in Beishangguangshen and there are no government background.The four major strategic cities in China have entered.(Dong Jianhua: You know that you buy that product through the market operation.) So this year the government has rarely given the market and starts to rely on the government, but in 2016, you can see that all provinces in the past include Guangzhou and Shenzhen.of.But all the provinces this year will be more next year. This is a real signing contract. Basically, the larger province is not blank.Except for Tibet, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, Yinlong has almost no blank province.The full coverage of 2017, including Taiwan's full coverage.

Shareholders: There is a question about Dong as a question. I see Gree who wants to produce mobile phones to buy Gree stocks. I will not buy only air conditioners. I like the company's development.Later, I did not guess Yinlong.I often watch Gree's mobile phone. I have bought 6 units, which is very supportive!Why do I buy, I call my employees, I also opened a small company, I used it all. It was really good for more than 4 months, and it has been fell many times.Later, it fell on the stone at 2 or 3 meters.I have also compared with other companies' mobile phones. The 2nd generation is really good. I also bought 2 generations in the first generation (Dong: 1st generation is embarrassed). It is still possible to buy 1,100 yuan in the first generation.Everyone has money, right?I have used it for 4-5 months in the second generation. At this time, the mobile phone market has changed. Vivo and OPPO rose faster than Huawei and Xiaomi. The sales strategy is that sales staff are everywhere, and even bars are available.I really hope that the mobile phone market is also very large. Everyone uses it and children use it. In addition to Yinlong, I also said that I hope to build a sports car. Yinlong has been doing it for a long time.Gree management can see everything, you don't need to think too much.I want to understand how the plan is. The quality of quality is definitely no problem. Can you disclose the point plan? After all, the mobile phone market is very competitive.(Master applause)

Dong: From the source design, I want to solve the problem of mobile phones in a shorter time. This may be to move the problem of muscles and bones. We are studying.Secondly, our mobile phone is developed by ourselves, manufactured by ourselves, and refused to produce outside the outside, so this is very difficult for us and can not see benefits in the short term. One is to control quality technology. Second, we hope to achieve fully automation through ourselves.The automation line is done by yourself, and it is more advantageous after doing so.We still consider from a long -term perspective.So why can't buy on the market now, not to buy, but that we don't want to sell it public.Because the production line is limited, once the maturity is rolled out, Gree will spread to the national high -speed high -speed, just like the bars you talk about can sell mobile phones. Of course, we may not choose such a way.Thank you very much for buying 6 mobile phones alone. If everyone here buy 6 mobile phones, don't just think of dividends. You make a little contribution to Gree's sales. This is the market.Gree must make the best.(Person next to me: After the latest model came out, I first bought it, I sold my mobile phone), thank you!So I think everyone cares about us, we will definitely speed up, but we cannot be blindly fast.Like Xiaomi once crazy, I don't want to have such a simple sales data change, but to have a connotation change.Gree has come to this day. It is no longer when I saw it in the early days. I ca n’t do it anymore. I have reached my own decision. I ca n’t control me because of others.In this regard, we are more confident.

Shareholders: Yinlong's sales model is "financial leasing, win -win situations". How much does this model occupy the overall sales revenue?

Wei: In 2015, this model accounted for more than 60%, and 50%of each in 2016. The remaining 50%is because some customers have lower cost financing channels.Debt, interest is only 2-3 points, there is no shortage of money at all, so the full payment of Beijing.Of course, there is another double -layer bus in Beijing, which does not have a lower cost of financing. The cost of the 10 -year period is lower.This is according to the user's situation, the proportion of the market is probably the same.

Shareholders: I understand the announcement of the 23rd. This sales model comes with a promise. This big vernacular understanding is that the customer has not paid to the rental company. Yinlong has to get a car and pay the rental institution. Can you understand it like this?

Wei: It can be understood that any financial institution needs to have guarantee measures, but if Yinlong First cannot bear the guarantee responsibility for his product, no one will cooperate with you; the second guarantee is only a legal procedure, zero -risk, which is convenient when it is convenient for convenience.Go to our company to see a after -sales monitoring system.Last year, the Ministry of Finance checked and made up for us, and found that our system really solved the win -win situation of the four squares.Because our system has been advanced to the driver's violation every day, a few violations, a few points, and the quality of my product, the situation of parts and batteries of parts and single batteries are monitored in real time.This system uses GPS and the Internet, which cannot be done in any law.There is a Quartet contract for the buses to destroy the contract.As long as I ensure your operating efficiency, as long as the quality of the product is fine, the public transport in turn will give us a mortgage guarantee for us and financial institutions, and the government has a guarantee.In any social system, it is impossible for buses to stop. If you do n’t dare to stop the bus, you ca n’t destroy your contract.It is impossible to destroy the contract, so you still go to our company to see the after -sales system, and the system is born for this business model.The Ministry of Finance has now promoted this model to the whole country and the industry.There is a certain promise between this four -way win -win situation. The two words you just said should be fully looked at.I have a commitment to financial institutions. In turn, the government has a mortgage and promise to the financial institutions to the government, and the financial institutions are mortgaged. Welcome to the scene to investigate!

Shareholders: If there is only a good side, it is not objective, you also mentioned it just now.Taking Chinese aircraft leasing as an example, the use of recipient -retired aircraft manufacturing enterprises will not refund money (for the leaser) ...

Wei: Financial leasing and financial leasing are two concepts, and there are many financial experts here.You are called financial leasing, and we are talking about financial leasing.Different concepts, financial leasing is deep.First of all, financial leasing requires 3 models. Financial leasing only requires 2 models, one financial model and one business model, and financial leasing also has a technical model.That is, there are technical and financial models to form a business model.Financial leasing depends entirely on business, we are not.

Shareholders: I look at the contract as if it is very unfair to Yinlong, involving credit issues.There are no risks for financial leasing companies. This money is made to make profits. In case customers want to refund, you will also be responsible for paying the gold.From this perspective, pulling a financial leasing, the risk is unbalanced, and Yinlong will suffer.In addition, the money made by this year will spit it out next year.Therefore, the profit is expected to get a question mark.

Wei: I answered your question. You actually expose the core issues in the market. I hope you will track it until you track the truth.Mr. X followed us for 6-8 years of underwriting, including repurchase guarantee.Why?I have worked for this financial model for more than 40 experts on Wall Street for more than a year. This model must have a technical model.There are only two models for aircraft and train sales, and the foundation is unstable.This is the first point.

The second point is that your example just now is right, and everyone can do it.However, China's laws and regulations do not have a 10 -year rent period, and at most 3 years and 5 years.The average service life of bus customers is an average of 10 years. It is necessary to fundamentally solve all the concerns of users. The larger the market is bigger and bigger, the products can become more and more popular.At this time, the technical model, product life, and product quality must reach 10 years.You think you have risks in this 10 years, and you say it is correct.Why don't Beijing buses use financial leasing?He has a lower cost financial leasing, and the proportion of our sales is decreasing.Since the introduction of this financial leasing into China, China's financial leasing is 10 years, and we are the first time to break financial institutions.Minsheng Bank did the first one. At first, it was the first one for us. We definitely needed to make a commitment to Minsheng Bank. For example, we paid the rent without paying rent.But then again, the bus dare not stop.Therefore, we know that the government is the government's 6 major infrastructure with water, electricity, roads, cars, medicine, and teaching. It is included in the government's level 1 budget. It must be included in the budget report of a large number of people. This is the foundation of the financial model.This is not the aircraft and trains you are talking about. It is not included in the government budget, and the risk is very high.The franchise right of the bus company is also a special approval of the government. Anyone cannot be provocative, shaken, and cannot be transferred.

The third point, no matter how the government reforms the bus company, the service function of the bus company cannot be stopped.Therefore, franchise rights, government subsidies, ticket income, and advertising income can support it.The rest is the technical model, that is, our product quality is sufficient to solve the problem of 10 years.Some people say that I have been guaranteed for 6 years and 8 years. I hope you can continue to follow up and report. I support you at all costs. This is the matter.Social chaos in the aspects of finance, term, and risk control.I told me for 10 years for 10 years, and I told me for 8 years in less than 8 years.This is a loan for financial institutions to deceive the trust of financial institutions. You are really right.But we have to go to the scene to see how we solve this problem. My after -sales service center even compares Boeing planes and Airbus. Airbus dare not let it go. Airbus is relying on a black box. We rely on GPS.There is no technical risk.Management risks, franchise risks, and Ministry of Finance's risk, money is a government guarantee.You said why the word is signed for this chapter, for the risk control meeting on financial institutions.How can I not even sign a signs or chapter in China, how can I approve funds to prepare funds?Chinese financial institutions must also be mortgaged to buy a house, and individual consumption must be mortgaged. Financial institutions do not bear risk.But we have capital. If we have money, we can do not use financial financing.The Yinlong model can earn 3 profits: shareholders' investment, profit dividends, and long -term benefits of financial leasing are another income.Yinlong's financial expenses are now given the bank, and the leasing is given to the leasing company. If we have a strong finance, the profit margin is not 13%just said, which may be far more than 20%.This is a major event worthy of your full tracking of reports. I support you.Today, you also hope that you will go to the scene to see. This model has been doing it for 4 or 5 years, not a few words.

Shareholders: I have another question to ask Mr. Dong, who is respecting, and the small shareholders are also optimistic about Gree's management for so many years, but there are many controversies to the acquisition of this plan for Yinlong. I want to ask about the choice.What is the time to vote?Yinlong had a lot of financing before. The previous valuation was very cheap. Until January and February 2016, it was still 56 billion. Why not participate in early, even if you participate in the shares, you will slowly control.Our shareholders are very stingy, hoping that Gree will have the greatest benefit every penny.In addition, Yinlong, a lithium titanate technology, is not the only one in the country, nor is it the only world in the world.There is a micro -power in Luzhou that is also doing lithium titanate batteries, and his battery application has sufficient basis on the passenger cars. Why did you choose other companies?

Dong: You talk about your stingy, I am even more stingy, I will never make a penny.Many new energy companies have found us before, not only BYD, we do not agree with it in the future.President Wei had found Gree a few years ago. I don't know about this.This was what I talked with President Wei after I decided to acquire Yinlong.You asked me why I didn't have a decision early, this was the first one.

As for the second, the benefits they created were peeled off by the bank by the bank, and it was difficult to survive.After several raising funds, we strictly belong to the fourth time. When you are about to die for the first time, you have to give you everything, and the second and third time will grow and ease.Just like when 10 guys marry 1 girl, the little girl must sell at a high price.When the 10 little girls married a young man, they gave him no money. This principle was very simple.

Now that we acquire Yinlong is a technology, not a car. To be honest, I don't see the car now.The car is an extension of the battery to me.You just talked about a battery factory in Huzhou. Yinlong knew it more clearly at the door of the house. Why did you go to Huzhou to buy it?I won't think about it, I never thought about this.

After the second time Wei came to us, in these two days, I felt that this was a good project and made a decision -but my decision refers to the plan to enter this project.In fact, why a few years ago why I bought Tesla and the mixed power, I always wanted to find a good (product).After listening to his technical introduction, we also conducted in -depth investigations, and the investigation was also for a long time.It was still very cautious to hope that he had arrived in the United States for him, and we were not so stupid.To be honest, the bargain we have argued for a long time.President Wei even ran to us at the time of 15 billion to sell. He was finished. What is the use of buying a 15 billion empty shell?It is likely that he is setting up another factory, and there is no one to take him.Many people do not understand, say it is to buy cash!We think more about development.This is already a bargaining result. It started to say that it took more than 15.4 billion to do it.Later, we also dug the question and that problem on their accounts, and the two sides compromised.

You say how much this phone is worth, cost 3,000 yuan, do you sell it to you?Think of this truth.Since I bought it 13 billion, (purpose) brought me 100 billion enterprises.And I believe in our ability. Here I dare to say this. As long as we have the ability, we can earn back 13 billion or three years.It is not possible, it is completely possible.His intelligent equipment is all of us. It costs 15 billion to buy it outside, but how much does I tell him?I made this money. I will do it if I do n’t cooperate with me, it ’s impossible.The profit is saved. Gree can double the profit of the air -conditioning in 3 years. Yinlong has taken one year to make a double. It is not a problem.But I still say this. Everyone here really supports Gree, and Gree promises to give you a good dividend (applause).Another applause is for you, buy more Gree products, what mobile phones, washing machines, rice cookers, and cars in the future.The car market is huge. How many of us do we need a car for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of installation workers. The installation workers must be equipped with a car.I have bought myself.No one may have such a huge market.I just answered you like this, okay, stingy is still not stingy, better than you, and you can pull it more than you.(applause)

Some staff added that Fuzhou Weihong's valuation was 2.3 billion U.S. dollars, which also exceeded Yinlong, with a profit of more than 2 billion yuan.This can be queried online. Last year, the profit was more than 100 million, and this year is expected to make more than 200 million profits.

Wei: From this valuation ratio, Yinlong is more than 50 billion.The battery cell used by Weihong in China is the product of Okitarian Okitarian in the United States that we acquire. There are only two industrialized lithium titanate batteries in the world: one is Otochia and the other is Toshiba in Japan.There are now 6 large companies in Japan.They are single -molecular structures, and nano -ball shapes have only our exclusive secrets.

There are already more than 50 in China that have begun to walk into the industry. They are lithium titanium titanate with dry and single molecular structures, which are prone to flatulence and the production process cannot be solved.This is also the concern of shareholders and speculation on the Internet. You can go to the scene. All battery factories on the right want to do lithium titanate. To be honest.But the problem of flatulence is the molecular structure and the other is the battery manufacturing process. We have hundreds of patents in our light battery technology. This is an open patent that cannot be manufactured.After we acquired Oti, we stopped providing a battery cell for Weirong, and we were not enough.He also stopped providing nano -ball materials. He now bought Ankang Sichuan.Weihong's battery technology is based on Otochia, which we acquired. He is a mainly operator and is now working to a manufacturer.This time we have been in the third phase of the project, and many of them are made by Gree. Many of the intelligent equipment are Gree, and these robots are Gree.

Dong: This platform is also very helpful for our automated equipment.Through such a service process, we have a better promotion effect on related technologies and related parameters.If there is no platform for us, it is hard to say when it is so big.This was originally imported. After cooperating, we told him to do it for us before entering this part.

Shareholders asked: If the acquisition is successful, is it independent development and integration, or is it deeply integrated?There are also teams on both sides.

Dong: Since it is a acquisition, there is a culture of an enterprise, and there will not be two cultures.Of course, it will also transform Yinlong to our side, and it is more of us ... After all, President Wei was really difficult at that time. You have to go to the market, but also engage in production and all aspects.For example, cost control, I think it is defective. Our acquisition will definitely follow us to control costs to prevent corruption and gap together.This must accept Gree's culture.Some people ask if the acquisition of Yinlong will replace the team. I think it ’s strange to change?People are doing well, even better than us, much stronger than us in a certain field.Anyone should give a good job as long as he loves a company.Now that you have acquired, it is not your relationship with me, or a whole.Thanks.

Shareholder asked: President Dong, what do you think of the traditional air conditioning industry?The inventory this year is basically over. How do you plan in the medium and long term?Including strategic and tactical.

Dong: The guarantee on the air conditioner is not to decline in market share, leading the industry.There is also a big development space in the air conditioner -commercial field.For example, there are many demands for submarines and ships used by the army.In addition, Gree products are used for the highest 500 -meter -high building.The difficulty is that the temperature is consistent within 500 meters. This is a technical problem and a challenge.We have already won.There are still a few unique technologies, photovoltaic air conditioners.So far, we may have only us.There are hundreds of orders internationally, and more than a dozen orders have been installed.In the later production, there is still room for growth in the business field.In the field of intelligent HVAC, in the past, air -conditioning cooling, and in the future, air -conditioning heating also requires us to develop.Gree's dual -level compressor is now continuing to be upgraded, and the three -level compressor has come out. When we have a third -level compressor, the dual -level compressor can be sold to the outside world. This is also a good market.

As long as you continue to innovate and focus on the market, the truly good marketing is to create a market and not keep the market.For example, why did Jobs sell well?He created a demand.So we also need to create a demand and maintain a leading position.This is also the goal that enterprise development must be achieved.As for the development of multiple blocks, according to the market.1 million markets can account for 50, 60, and even 70, which is what we want to do.

Shareholders: I want to know the situation of Obi in the United States. According to Mr. Wei, now there are more negative Austrian titanium. What impact does its patent affect the company?The second is why the additional issuance plan is not distributed but has an increased issue. Now there are many negatives on the Internet. The timing of hoping that fund experts choose to buy and sell are very in place.

Wei: I answered you in the first question, and the second question always answers.The negative news about Anti is the fact that the company's 35 -year history has never been profitable.It turned out that the two CEOs made articles around the military market and marched to the civilian market for 10 years later. This is his historical problem.We acquired him for technology. So far, all production workers in the United States have been dismissal. There is no cleanliness of all labor disputes. As for, there is some small shareholders' lawsuits because they have changed a audit firm.It turned out that (audit) was all white. Now the technology production and main research and development have been moved back to China after the acquisition.Tell them two trips and do not understand China's accounting system.The different accounting system and the Chinese accounting audit system now lead to the lawsuit of small shareholders, which are currently processed.In addition to retaining materials research and several core technology backbones, all others have been cut off. The loss should be balanced this year, and it will begin to make profit next year.Over the past 35 years, the Chinese have finally started profitable.Now that we have controlled, we are absolutely controlled. There are many ways to pay for the next delisting or increase capital and shareholding. However, our technology has been bought back, the patent has been bought, and we are all in our hands.

Hope: When we suspended trading at the time, the air -conditioning industry faced a decline. Gree faced a 40%share in the industry to transform. In accordance with the rules of negotiations, he chose to suspend trading immediately.We gave Yinlong's right to choose the right, but Yinlong's shareholders were unwilling to get cash, and were willing to take stocks and share the development of Yinlong and Gree's development.Under this circumstances, we face the problem of diluting state -owned shareholders. We have 18.22%of our largest shareholders in our country. If they do not make orientation, they lose their control equity, so they must be fixed to meet their requirements.So you can communicate with the state assets on this approach.

In the second aspect, for employee incentives, taking this opportunity to launch employee holdings, the capital market is also very agreed.For so many years, Gree's employees have made contributions to Gree. The dividends that share the growth of the capital market include Dong and employees very enthusiastic. From the market, some employees have lost shares -China Merchants Shekou can see that it can’t be done anymore.EssenceIn the next three years, only employees are the most confident.In myself, I do things in accordance with laws and regulations. At that time, I lost my need for family needs, and I also saw the pressure of the industry.Gree's acquisition of Yinlong has a lot of room for growth. I personally have confidence. President Dong sees farther. We may not be able to do it well in this regard. There are things that everyone needs to understand.

Shareholders: As a executive, you have mastered internal information. Everyone suspects that there is insider trading in it.

Dong: Avoid internal transactions as the first.Second, our executives are confident in the brand. Don't look at my stock just can't get in. In fact, I also want to sell it. Why can't I sell such a high price?Not everyone's thoughts of communism, as long as they are not in the sensitive period, everyone should understand.I thought so. When I sold it at the time, the price was very high. One was to buy a house at home in Guangzhou and asked for money.The second selling such a high price is very good for him. In fact, I don't want to hide you and say that I want to sell it so high.But really considering the brand, I answered this question for him.I have also scolded him many times.I said you borrow money.I talked about this in accordance with the relevant laws of the CSRC, and there was no unqualified in the window period.

Hope: It is normal to have opinions, but legal.

Dong: I think it was normal to sell at high prices at that time. Now borrowing money to increase issuance, we must look at it with a large attitude.He created a large amount of wealth with capital and has a part of you.Look at this mentality.I actually scolded him behind.It is not illegal to legal, but it is not good for the company's image.

Shareholders: Some investors say that they have a good income, and my mentality is very good. It is not cheap as a staff member to invest more than 15 yuan. It is necessary to lock for 3 years. I know this.As for the SASAC, Gree's major shareholders have a good mentality. It will be troublesome to develop after no boss support.As a private enterprise, there is no long -term mixed.As a retail investor, it is really diluted, but why do I still add a position?After the acquisition, the employees have been shares, and they must want to make the stock price up.Just now, Mr. Dong also said that we are not speculative in investment, but investment also hopes that the stock price will go up.I am all supporting here.If the acquisition is fixed, we can properly make up for those who dilute, and it will be very simple to return.

Shareholders: I am worried about the situation of Vanke. Gree's cash flow is more abundant than Vanke. How did you plan?

Dong: This is impossible. The manufacturing industry is different from the service industry and the real estate industry. No powerful technical team cannot support it.It is not relying on money, but by team.If you hit money, it is also good for everyone. Manage the company well, don't worry, no.

Shareholders: Now Gree Electric's market value is about 130 billion yuan. After the successful fixed increase, do you have a leap in the market value management of Gree Electric?

Dong: I really did n’t answer well, not very concerned.I only care about what will happen for 5 years and what will happen in 10 years.I believe Gree Electric will become a worldwide enterprise, and its technology allows it to enter the Fortune 500. I am very confident.As for the market value, we believe that as the profit of the company changes, the market value will change, and if it does not change, it will be recovered.

Shareholders: Are there any confidence to surpass universal electrical in the United States?I take you as a common electrical electricity in the United States.

Dong: We are doing motors now. Although the report has not been reported, a company has reported 2%of profits. We are more than ten percent, but our Gree motor compressor has never been sold in the market.Only the air conditioner is included in sales, no sales are not sold for takeaway, and sales are not profitable (profit).

Shareholders: Will you enter the living appliances?Are there any technical reserves?

Dong: By the way, technology should be fine.

Shareholders: I personally invest in value investment. I do n’t care about stocks, I only care about the dividend of the company. I ca n’t find such a good company except Gree.Higher than the income of casual investment.

Dong: Yes.(When it comes to high dividends), it is really proud of Gree, and the university MBA is a case of Gree.The United States takes out Gree's dividends and has one of the best internationally.

Shareholders: The top 5 suppliers of Yinlong have a company with lithium iron phosphate batteries. In the future, lithium iron phosphate consumption consumes greater consumption than lithium titanate. What is the proportion of the two?

Wei: The third phase of Hebei was completed and the fourth phase was started. Please pay more attention.The outside world only hyped lithium titanium titanate. Yinlong's acquisition of Oto Titanium not only looks at lithium titanate, but also looks at the nanomoid production technology of materials.After the acquisition, the northern base has become a national -level nanomaterial demonstration base, and it is valued at tens of billions and 100 billion yuan.

Shareholders: Is this technology more significant to lithium titanate or lithium iron phosphate?

Wei: Yinlong will manufacture products with different technical indicators of different technical indicators in different customers in the market, power density and energy density.Oti is not only produced a material, but also the positive pole material.The same lithium iron phosphate can reach 10,000 times through Obi -titanium technology, and the charging multiplier can increase by 4 times.Lithium iron phosphate batteries can also be charged for 15 minutes and 20 minutes, and mass production immediately.However, lithium iron phosphate is not very good for the system on the passenger cars, because the passenger car has been running for 10 years, because in terms of consumption, the cost of mobile phone notebooks is very good (app).Lithium iron phosphate is unshakable in the leading market in the consumer market. Power battery power circuits on the passenger cars are more important than energy density. In 20 years, they cannot see better competitive materials.

Warm reminder: The views of all futures and stocks are only the real strategy of Asu as the trading. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. You should be carefully evaluated when investing. I wish you a smooth investment!

It is said that the trend of the three black mouse coke coke coke and power coal today, as Adu's judgment yesterday, set a new high, but it became closer and closer to our mouse catching operation.

The above picture shows that the left side of the picture below is the trend of the soybean meal index from the end of June to the beginning of July 2016. The picture on the right is the trend chart of coking coal 1701. The red arrow is the closing price today.The K line in the back was added to Adu, thinking that this trend is more reasonable.

Soybean meal 1609 contract on June 27, 2016 is similar to coking coal 1701 contract on November 4th.

Soybean meal 1609 contract on June 28, 2016 is exactly the same as the trend of coking coal 1701 contract on November 9

Soybean meal 1609 contract on June 29, 2016 Trends with coking coal 1701 contract on November 8th.

Soybean meal 1609 contract on June 30, 2016 trend and coking coal 1701 contract November 9th trend is twin brothers

Seeing that God is coming, Adu will re -posted the comparison chart of the soybean meal and coking coal again. It can be very responsible to find that the trend of the two varieties has risen high before.

Please see the following two trend charts, so perfect

Therefore, Adu will follow the trend before the bold reasoning

The mystery is so simple.

So why do we boldly speculate that the return of the black system

Push for a few days first:

Day 1: On November 10th, the trend of coking coal and the July 1st of the soybean meal 1609 on the left is similar. We wait and see.

If the black line is empty tonight, is it dare to empty, and the price of Adu's carbon is between 2170-2200 and 30 points of stop loss. Coking coal and power coal are similar.Do you dare?

Day 2: Suppose the trend of coke on November 11 is similar to the July 4th trend of the soybean meal 1609 on the left. How can we decide?

Day 3: Suppose the trend of coke on November 14 and the soybean meal 1609 on the left on July 5th, where will we go?

Day 4: Suppose the trend of coke on November 15 is the same as the July 6th trend of the soybean meal 1609 on the left. Do we dare to continue to increase the position?

Day 5: Suppose the trend of coke on November 16 and the soybean meal 1609 on the left on the left will be repeated on July 7th. What eyes will we use it?

Day 6: Suppose the trend of coke on November 17 and the Soyan meal 1609 on the left were perfect on July 8th. Will you move ahead of your own plan?

Day 7: Suppose the trend of coke on November 17 is consistent with the July 11th trend of the soybean meal on the left. You haven't made 10 million at this time. Please don't read Adu's article anymore.

On July 1, 2016, when the spot price of soybean meal and the futures price of the futures price, on the contrary, the futures price rose slightly, and the 100,000 -handed multi -single -liquidation leaving order started the decline of soybean meal.Essence

Today, the price of coke coking coal power coal futures is almost the same as that of the spot price, and there are some premiums on the contrary.Waiting for the boots that throw a single order landing.It's almost almost--

The repetition of history is so amazing. All Adu's strategies must be prepared and anti -preparation. The AB plan is the basic quality of a strategy master.Today's time is limited, let's share it here first!

The author of this article is Peng Wensheng, the chief economist of Everbright Securities and Director of the Institute of Research, and the Vice Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum

I am honored to participate in this annual meeting organized by the Hongru Education Foundation and the Shanghai Financial Law Research Institute.We have a tradition in this forum. Everyone really discusses some issues. Today, I will talk about the current opinion of some hot issues: the relationship between exchange rate and house prices.

Let's mention the recent economic data. The PMI data just announced is exceeded expectations. The stabilization of economic growth in the first three quarters is also higher than expected.Does the PMI be exceeded that the bombardment does not mean a period of time. At least in the next few months, the risk of economic downturn is controlled. How do I think about the future trend of the Chinese economy?

We see the sharp expansion of credit in the first few months of this year, in fact, it means that the economic downside risk is controllable this year.We must compare the stimulus of macro policies in major economies such as China and the United States, Europe, and Japan. In fact, China is still the most direct.Our China ’s credit this year exceeded that the central bank’ s interest rate cut or even negative interest rates an important conduction channel is to hope to stimulate credit but the effect is limited. Our China ’s credit this year has greatly exceeded expectations. The money released supports investment demand, mainly real estate and infrastructure investment.

However, what is the price behind such a short -term downward risk?The price of this price is further increased in house prices after the expansion of credit and water release.Therefore, when we think about the future trend of the economy in the short term, from the perspective of sustainable growth, the cost of economic recovery is the issue of real estate, credit and debt.The pressure is reflected in different levels, one aspect is related to the exchange rate. We see that the exchange rate has obvious depreciation pressure this year.

This year, the rise in house prices and the depreciation of exchange rates have brought a problem. What is the relationship between house prices and exchange rates?Recently, there are many discussions in the market. Is China a decline in house prices in the future or depreciation of exchange rates?Some people even summarize what model of China is, is it Japan's model (house prices fall, exchange rates are not degraded) or so -called Russian model (house prices do not fall, exchange rate depreciation)?A basic consensus behind such a view and a basic logic is that the house prices and exchange rates must be combined to see. Converting China's house prices into US dollars is too expensive, so there is one of the exchange rate and house prices to adjust. The key is to adjust the adjustment.EssenceThe reason why this problem is not only about the asset allocation from the perspective of investment.Both house prices and exchange rates have dual attributes, both asset prices and commodity prices.Housing is an important consumer product, and the exchange rate is not just an asset price. It is an important decisive factor in the relative price of trade products and non -trade products, imports and exports.Therefore, the relationship between housing prices and exchange rates is not only a problem of investor asset allocation, but also the problem of economic development and economic structure changes, so it is very important.I talk about some of my own views.

First of all, we have to pay attention to the facts. What happened to Japan and Russia? Is it that Japan's house prices have fallen in exchange rates without derogation, and Russia does not fall in exchange rates?Let's take a look at a few pictures.The first one we saw that the nominal house prices and actual house prices in Tokyo did fall sharply after the Japanese real estate bubble rupture. Let's take a look at the yen exchange rate without obvious unilateral devaluation or appreciation after the foam rupture, but fluctuated up and down.Let's take a look at the name house prices in Moscow, Russia, and the actual house prices are different. The nominal house prices have not fallen, but the actual house prices have declined significantly in recent years.Therefore, it is inaccurate that Russia's house prices have not fallen. The nominal house prices have not fallen, but the growth rate of house prices is significantly lower than the increase in general commodity and service prices. The actual house prices after the inflation have declined.The exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar is indeed depreciated, especially in the past year in more than a year.So in comparison, the nominal and actual house prices in Beijing in China have risen significantly, and the effective exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated in the past two years.Therefore, in summary, Japan has fallen, and the exchange rate has not depreciated; Russia is a real price house price falling, and the exchange rate depreciation; we China is still high in terms of real price house prices or nominal house prices.The exchange rate depreciates.

After clarifying the facts, let's see what the relationship between house prices and exchange rates are possible.I just mentioned that the exchange rate and house prices have dual attributes, which is both an asset price and a commodity price, so we have to look at this problem from this dual attribute.

First of all, let's look at the real economy attributes.From the perspective of commodity prices, what is the relationship between exchange rate and house prices?Is it mutually replacement or linkage?We can have two perspectives.One is purchasing power parity.Suppose it is a trading product. Beijing's house prices are too expensive. You can go to New York to buy a house.If the actual exchange rate measured by housing prices has the so -called one -price law, effective arbitrage causes high housing prices to bring funds to the pressure of funds and the depreciation of the exchange rate.However, there is a problem with purchasing power parity. It is assumed that they are tradables, and housing is non -trading products, so it is limited to compare house prices in Beijing and New York.However, the actual exchange rate also has another angle. It is not to measure the price ratio between us and other countries, but to measure the prices of our internal trading and non -trade products. Real estate prices and rent are important parts of non -trading prices.The actual exchange rate at this angle affects the allocation of resources in the trade product industry and the non -trade product industry. The actual exchange rate is too high, resulting in too much resources occupied by non -trade sectors, especially real estate -related industries, and the trading department or manufacturing industry is crowded.Press.These two perspectives say that there is a relationship between exchange rate and house prices.That is to say, the exchange rate depreciation is large, and the pressure of house prices will be reduced; in turn, the house prices fall more, and the pressure on the depreciation of the exchange rate will be reduced.But there are two problems here: one is part of the housing is a part of non -trading products, not all. If the exchange rate depreciates to offset the rise in housing prices and squeeze the trading industry and other non -trade service industries, the exchange rate depreciation is very large.Effective; second China is not Russia, China is not a small economy, China is the second largest economy in the world. It is an economy that has contributed to global economic growth in the past few years.In terms of structure, the impact on the global economy will be very large, and our main trading partners will not accept it.Therefore, from the perspective of the real economy, it is unrealistic to offset the impact of high housing prices on the economic distortion of high housing prices.Let's look at the house prices to adjust (not using CPI) local currency to the actual exchange rate of the US dollar. The yen is depreciated after the real estate bubble breakdown. The ruble is the same in the near future.Nearby, we have not experienced the downward adjustment of Japan and Russia.

The second perspective is the financial perspective, which regards house prices and exchange rates as asset prices.The most common perspective of financial perspective is asset allocation perspective.House prices have risen too much, and the proportion of local currency assets may exceed the ideal scope. Everyone is more willing to exchange foreign currency assets and bring pressure on funds.From this perspective, housing prices and exchange rates are mutually linkage. The exchange rate depreciation expectations or housing prices fall expectations easily lead to another downward: house price decline is expected to lead to exchange rate depreciation, and exchange rate depreciation is expected to lead to falling house prices.Then there is a reality of capital account control. We know that capital account control is not always effective. If the control is strict, it may have impact on normal economic and investment, and the transaction cost will be very high.There is another level of financial perspectives of exchange rates and housing prices. The exchange rate affects the credit conditions of investors, and the latter is related to real estate.At a certain point of time, an economy is either an external net asset or a net liabilities. The depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate will have a wealth effect on the private sector's balance sheet.If it is a net asset, the depreciation of the exchange rate will lead to an increase in foreign assets in total wealth. Therefore, there will be an automatic asset allocation adjustment, which will allocate more local currency assets to restrict the depreciation of the exchange rate.Conversely, if it is an external debt, the depreciation of the local currency will lead to an increase in the burden on foreign debt, and it may increase the depreciation pressure of the exchange rate.Furthermore, this wealth effect affects the balance sheet of the private sector, which will affect credit conditions.This has something to do with the financial cycle I talked about in the past two years, because this wealth utility will affect the credit rating of the borrower and affect our domestic credit conditions, and credit expansion is closely connected to real estate prices.In the first half of the financial cycle, the two promoted each other, and credit expansion and rising house prices were linked; in the second half, credit austerities and house prices were linked.If exchange rate fluctuations cause domestic credit atrophy, it is not good for house prices.

Under this framework, you can provide an explanation, why did the house price fall in the second half of the Japanese financial cycle, and the exchange rate was not degraded?The reason is that the Japanese private sector holds a large number of external net assets. A large number of external net assets limited the depreciation of the yen in the decline in internal house prices, and even brought the pressure on appreciation.On the one hand, foreign net assets routinely bring regular income and support international revenue and expenditure.In addition, if the yen has depreciated against the US dollar, the proportion of foreign assets held by the Japanese private sector rose, which has increased the pressure on appreciation.In the case of foreign net assets, the appreciation of the local currency brings a negative wealth effect, tightening credit conditions, and is not conducive to real estate prices.There may be multiple reasons for the combination of house prices and exchanges in Japan. In my opinion, an important reason is that the Japanese private sector holds a large number of foreign net assets.

So why did Russia's actual house price fall?Russia is a typical resource export country. Energy has been impacted, and at the same time, it is sanctioned by Western countries, leading to problems in international revenue and expenditure. Therefore, it is a typical international revenue and expenditure. The fiscal deficit and exchange rate depreciate.The depreciation of the exchange rate has led to rising domestic prices, so it is incomparable with the situation of large economies such as Japan and China. It is a very special resource export country and has problems with a short -term impact.

So what do we think of China?The entire country's foreign net assets are nearly 2 trillion yuan, but the significant difference between us and other countries is that the assets are in the hands of the government, that is, a large -scale foreign exchange reserves, and the private sector is foreign debt.Therefore, our private sector's external liabilities are the same as most emerging markets, which is very different from Japan and some countries in Nordic.In the case of our private sector's external liabilities, the depreciation of the RMB and the decline in housing prices are mutually promoted.If the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, it will cause our debt burden to increase further and increase the pressure of capital outflows.At the same time, our private sector's external liabilities correspond to the private sector with too few assets, which originally had a re -allocation request.If the exchange rate will change from the past appreciation expectations to depreciation expectations, this asset allocation demand will be greater.At the same time, there is a wealth effect of the balance sheet. We owe US dollar bonds. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will have a negative balance sheet, a negative wealth effect.The negative wealth effect limits the credit level of the private sector, reduces the ability of borrowing, and tighes internal credit conditions.So in the second half of the financial cycle, when our house prices began to fall, when our credit began to slow down, our situation was not the same as the situation in Japan. The difference was the difference in foreign assets and liabilities.

To sum up, it is summarized: First, Russia's house prices have not fallen, and the actual house prices have fallen. It is mainly to measure the standards. As investors, we are concerned about its actual price.Second, from the perspective of the real economy, it is unrealistic to expect exchange rate adjustment to solve economic structural problems and solve the impact of high housing prices on the economic distortion of the economy, because China is the second largest economy and has great external influence.Third, from the perspective of the financial cycle, our private sector's external liabilities and the Japanese private sector are essentially different from foreign net assets. They mean the relationship between exchange rates and housing prices. In our circumstancesPart of the adjustment.

In short, I think that the Chinese economy must be sustainable, and the economic structure of China's economic structure must be corrected. The decline in house prices is essential. The depreciation of the exchange rate cannot replace the decline in house prices.Of course, there are many other factors that have many other factors, including land policies and tax policies. The time point for breaking the bream is not easy to say. However, if house prices are not adjusted in time, the overall economic growth momentum will be restricted, and the correction of distorted economic structure will also take longer.The economy must be sustainable, and the bubble of house prices must be suppressed.thank you all.

Note: The following is taken from the author's Sina Weibo from June 16 to October 16th 

The two ends of the investment are analysis and transactions, and those connecting these two ends are waiting.The core of investment analysis is business understanding and probability thinking. The core of investment transactions is odds and reverse thinking.

Power circle and common sense.In the long run, excellent transactions cannot save bad analysis, but excellent analysis may be destroyed by bad transactions.However, the most difficult thing is to learn to wait (whether it is holding or holding coins).

Investment performance is post -test, but the medium and long -term probability and odds of each investment can be determined in advance.Excellent performance is only the result, which leads to the essence of this result.Effectiveness, talent and luck may be the three most important reasons: trying to give you a successful lower limit in the right direction, the talent determines the efficiency and time cost of growth, and luck will always give people who insist on the right person unexpectedly.surprise.

Successful investors are good at computing and choice, they better know how to give up and persist; instead of being able to listen to the six ways, it is better to keep focusing on it.It is better to see your own limitations more profoundly, and you can clearly know the availability and or not in the market.The so -called investment gods are not that they have obtained the mystery, but they are just loyal to compound interest and always practice.

Anyone who understands compound interest understands that the sustainability and profitability of compound interest are contradictions (this is similar to ROE), and Gao Fuli and long -term are not available.Seeing Gao Fuli, if you don't look at time to defeat Buffett, you have basically not touched the investment of investment).It is inevitable to return to the average after Gao Fuli, which has both objective factors and subjective factors.The best scene in the investment career is: the initial high compound profit, and then a stable but strong sustainability.

Investment is particularly easy to indulge in "the construction of perfect systems" at a certain stage, but this is not very different from the life -long motivation to create permanent motivation.The more complicated the system and the more indulgence in the thinking, the farther the distance between the investment is.The longer the investment is, the more you can realize that the most reliable method theory that is simple and simple but hit by the essence. The most important thing is the big pattern and strategic success.

For an investor, a more dangerous situation is the feeling of "truth in the truth" early.If you are boring at the same time or fight for a better victory, you will talk about it with a little different Tao, which basically shows that there is no room for progress.Of course, investment is an unshakable basic principle, but the weight of different elements of investment has no "sacred model".Of course, this is not to say that seeing different thinking, but to maintain the openness of thinking, which is actually a ability.

Concentrated or scattered?If it is considered from a specific stage of perspective, it depends on which one is more important to you.If you consider long -term normal, concentration seems to represent high confidence in the company's mining and analysis.But think about it, if you are so confident, you should be able to dig more excellent targets and be moderately dispersed.Of course, this is essentially a problem. In the end, it is important to study the matching of depth and position benefits, the moderate investment elasticity and risk.

There are many elements involved in the investment decision -making link, but if the refinement summarizes three points, there may be three points: 1. The overall view.It is clear where you are in the entire market cycle, whether it is fear, greed or numb; 2. Value judgment.The bet should be aimed at the objects of the future advantage category, and be friends with time; 3, the expected poor.The predictions contained in the hypothetical and valuation of the value judgment are kept sensitive when the time of poor expectations occurs.

Investment myths are all the stories of victory, but the reality is actually very skinny, even Buffett acknowledged that it is constantly making mistakes.However, why do some people make a fatal mistake and do not cause serious losses?The difference is: 1. Do you subjectively admit that he is a mortal who can make mistakes?2. Is it objectively good at protecting yourself with safety margins?3. Is it dispersed and make up for good odds?Therefore, losses depend on the wrong pre -processing.

From the perspective of PB = PE*Roe, when ROE = 8%, even if PE is 35 times, PB is only 2.8 times.If the company can continue to grow and ROE will be increased to 25%, the PE will be 6.25 times when the PE is 25 times.It can be seen that PE reflects the expected premium, and PB reflects the asset premium.Usually expected reflections are far before the actual changes of ROE, while PB is relatively synchronized or lagging behind the changes of ROE.

It can also be understood from it that the changing trend of ROE itself is the core element of valuation. The biggest mystery of valuation is not the simple addition, subtraction and multiplication of the indicator, but the forward -looking judgment of the future profitability of the enterprise.Accurate.The so -called blur correctness is actually the specific PE and PB can be relatively blurred (or targeted analysis), but the trend judgment of ROE must be correct.

Gao ROE is the embodiment of the company's profitability, and the high and sustainable ROE is the embodiment of the company's strong competitive advantage.So in most cases such a good company market, the capital premium will inevitably be given, which is a higher PB.If a high -ROE company appears very low PB, do you think about why?Maybe: 1. The market is a fool; 2. The company's essence is a strong cycle and is currently at the inflection point of profit peak.This contradiction occurs occasionally, but often speaking, high ROE and low PB are essentially contradictory.

In the field of investment, "dancing with shackles" may not be a kind of restriction, but a protection mechanism.The most typical, such as Lao Ba's "only 20 holes in a lifetime", as the most common fixed investment index fund.It seems that these behaviors are highly limited, but after a long time, "handcuffs" have become golden bracelets.This is actually the reason why the "free action" of the vast majority can't run their virtual disks.

Companies that can continue to bring new expectations are often favored by the market.But there are two situations here: one is that the new expectations are revolving around the main business or upgrading of the industrial chain, and the main expectations are continued to be confirmed. This is the good seedling of excellent or even great companies; the other isThe new expectations of species have a large span and like to follow the wind, and always use new expectations to cover up the unrealized old expectations. This is the seed players who are unreliable and even the old thousand companies.

As for the relative relationship between the company and the price, it is not the most terrible to buy the company at a highly static price.Especially if the company continues to become cheap in the future, it can still be reversed into a good investment.The most afraid is that it is cheap when buying, but the more expensive it is, which shows that the logic of buying is wrong.In this case, the most important thing is the ability to change the mistakes quickly, otherwise the time cost of errors will be high.

At the beginning of the efficient operation, it seemed difficult to have obvious barriers, but this high -efficiency business volume changed to qualitative changes, and then formed a real high barriers based on scale or technology and customer viscosity.Near the maturity period.For such companies, the most important thing in the junior and middle stage should be to grasp three points: 1. Demand expansion of long -term demand; 2. teams that focus on and have strong industrial ambitions; 3.force.

The deterioration of the balance sheet is not a good thing in terms of qualitative speaking, but the cause of its deterioration needs to be divided into two.One is accompanied by a significant decline in income growth, and the abnormal accounts receivable and inventory during the same period; the other is the high -speed growth rate of income, but the early period of capital or scale is needed to lead to a sharp rise in debt ratios and cash flow.deterioration.The former often indicates that the relaxation of credit to the end -of -term income end will face worse results. On the contrary, the latter is because the demand explosion is too quickly exceeding the digestive ability of the current capital.

(June 16) If you try to accurately grasp the evolution path of the bull market in accordance with his previous experience, you have basically been swollen.So the question is, now it is based on the evolution path of the bear market according to the experience of a certain year. What is the probability of success?

Today, I saw a sentence: "What is limited? Limitation is to cut firewood and think that the emperor picks up golden flatness." It is too in place!

Seeing the ranking of an international medical system, I feel that the dignity and decentness of American doctors are based on the business model built by hospitals and insurance companies, but they have the highest expenditure in developed countries.China is the reasonable value of the government's insufficient investment but squeeze the doctor, and maintains the relatively low costs and high efficiency of medical protection.The health insurance in Taiwan and Japan is very effective, but Taiwanese friends have bluntly said that the communism of medicines can no longer be supported.

"The courage and responsibility of intellectuals are always reflected in the two -line combat with power and gangsters, rather than the accusations of fifty steps of the same kind.Without the favor of power, it is not understood by populism. It is destined to become a big V with a wind and rain. It is also easy for investment to please the public: when the market is not good, the bull market will take the lead in shouting tens of thousands of points.Everyday help retail investors to predict the rise and fall. Some things do not understand and disdain.

Fan Ye has a famous saying: How much you can withstand how much praise you can withstand.This can be changed in the stock market: how much you can tolerate how much success you can enjoy.The person who feels tormented in the K -line every day is a typical money to make money to sell flour; it can increase their patience endurance, of course, the gain will be greater, but in fact it is also painful; but I really want to really wantThose who are through are even the indifferent process of this inevitable process.

In the next ten years of development, the development of China is a winner of China. It has successfully separated from the middle income trap. No matter which class is a beneficiary, even the bottom layer has benefited from rising, but the biggest benefit is the middle class;Children, the noble class will not only be damaged but also solidify the class, the bottom life will only be more difficult than now, and the middle class will be the most painful.This is not an ideological competition, but the inevitable social level and structural evolution. Even if the wall is successful tomorrow, this inevitability cannot be changed.

The country's comprehensive technology strength is like the Olympic medal list. The strongest is that the project covers mostly and mostly, followed by the project covering a wide range of medals and other shortcomings.The subdivision of the championship is the second and third -tier competitions that have no fist project but can participate in many projects. In the end, nothing can be done.Objectively speaking, China is currently in the "second" stage. The United States is the strongest. Several old -fashioned industrial power is actually the level of "secondary"."between.

The core of the South China Sea dispute is national interests, not ideological struggles.What's the meaning?That is to say, even if China will become a typical democratic country tomorrow, as long as you do not give up the nine -segment line, as long as you are still strong and have the potential to surpass the boss, you will still be the key "care" object.Everything today is the sequelae that has continued to this day.If you do n’t fight for it, you will pay for it today; if you want to do n’t pay for the next generation, the only way out is today.

Today's Chinese people have regarded peace and stability as a matter of course, but in fact, the entire world has never been peaceful. It is only decades to crawl out of the dead pile.Trouble is that the contradiction intensity in the Asia -Pacific region is continuously increasing. From the historical scale, the Chinese are not so far away from war and chaos.To achieve "soldiers who are fighting without fighting", thick fists and superb wrists are all necessities.

The second choice to retreat is "the strategic purpose of the limited war", that is, to choose one of the controlled and low -cost income in many contradictions, and the long -term income is the largest, and the selected unlucky egg will face dozens of tensGrade decline.To be honest, the game of the great country has always been cold and dark. The small fresh people can write sorrowful articles, so that there is no leek on the countertop.The development of human beings is currently at this stage.

To tell the truth, whether it is value investment or democracy, it is a good thing, but it is also difficult. Many people only see the front and forget it.For example, the market will not benefit you because you believe in value investment. If you do not match the literacy, the more paranoia is more miserable; the same is true of democracy.Good things determine that they are worthy of pursuit; difficult things determine that there must be a high failure rate, and success requires a series of basic conditions.It ’s bad if you do n’t pursue good things.

Then the topic above, if you want to learn the value investment successfully, do n’t go back to Buffett every day; if you want to start a business, do n’t look at all kinds of successful studies every day, what you need to collect most is how everyone failed!A person who has not studied all kinds of failures cannot succeed.Those who just tell you every day, "What is good, you will be a new success when you do something," either a nerd or a liar.

Everyone in the bull market talked about high elasticity, and several rounds of stock disaster began to pay attention to "how to avoid the fluctuation of net worth".In fact, the net value retracement itself is an attached product of market fluctuations. It is completely refused to retreat and invest in the enemy.But the same fluctuations are very different in different backgrounds: the tendency in the foam environment should be to refuse fluctuations, but under the underestimation of the environment, you need to embrace fluctuations. In most unknown environments, what you need is to endure fluctuations.

A book says: "A mediocre general will list a bunch of problems and question marks for themselves when facing a complex environment.At a glance at a glance at the essence and pest, and acting with it. "This is actually the same as investment decisions. Outstanding investors are good at focusing on the market and the company.Logic fulcrum ".

The macroeconomic L response to the listed company is that most companies that are closely related to macroeconomic connections will face the continuous pressure of performance. In this case, the high degree of dispersing itself is equivalent to copying a small macro index.However, in the environment of L, we can also find some industries that have declined in the short -term and macroeconomics to produce hedging, long cycle, and continuous improvement of prosperity. Among them, "lucky and capable" friends are the gift of stock disaster.

As the interim report gradually disclosed that some companies with greater expectations have gradually filled the valley with their performance. Even if the market innovation low believes that such companies are difficult to return to their previous lows.From the perspective of investment, the company's business uncertainty declined at this time, but the value of investment also declined.In fact, this efficiently demonstrates the dialectics of the company's business fundamentals, market consistency expectations and odds.

The weight of the same company thinks differently under different odds.At a very low price, the focus is to understand what the main concern of the market is and in the worst case, and the core is whether the odds are in place; in reasonable price, the short and medium -term information is already highly effective, the point isFar, the core is the continuity of growth; when the price is extremely high, no small probability event cannot be ignored.In other words, the extreme state is compared with the angle, and the thickness is thick.

From the perspective of valuation, the first person I personally fear is not expensive, but it is difficult to measure value.The core that is difficult to measure is that there are too many variables or too far from the boundaries of the ability; the second is not expensive, but a cheap trap.It looks cheap and makes people ruthless, and once it proves that the trap is a big loss.If other elements are more certain, then "expensive" is actually a very simple problem, which is easy to measure.However, the important assumptions of valuations are terrible if they are unclear or overturned.

Facing the most afraid of extreme state in the face of the market, because the scene is too exciting.However, from the perspective of professional investors, the real extreme state is actually the easiest to deal with. The extreme delegation of value and price and the return of the average return make the decision at that time in the clearest situation.Instead, it is a vague period of the market. Facing multiple directions or clearing the direction, the evolution path may be extremely complicated. It is difficult to talk about the optimal choice in this situation.

Many things you just need to work hard, you can do hard work without contributions, and diligence will have a basic benefit guarantee.But the brutal and simple character of investing in investment is that you never ask how much you pay, but just depends on you right.This type of work is the second place, and the first is the correct values and methodology.Otherwise, the direction is wrong, the more diligent, the more bumpy, the more obsessed with the more crazy.

It is also luck. Most of the novices in the investment look correct because of good luck, while the investment veterans often get good luck by correctly.The former is random and passive, while the latter is high probability and active.It is normal for a person's investment performance to be lucky once or twice.But if it always looks so lucky, there must be a factor that attracts good luck.And a sign of investment enlightenment is the watershed line that learns to distinguish between ability and luck.

The previous two days answered some friends asking how to work hard to career in career investment.In fact, professional investment is a high -risk choice, especially in the early stage of elimination rate.It doesn't matter if you are not occupational in your career.In addition, it is best to start a professional investment in the bear market. In the cruel environment, people can more rationally evaluate themselves and experience the difficulties of investing in investment.It is not suitable to lift the past, and then decide if you want to survive it.

A few days ago with a friend and a colleague he brought by him, I learned that I was a professional investor. Friends and colleagues kept asking how I did it.It is neither staring at the market every day nor running the company frequently. When I asked many popular concepts, I did n’t know about it.After that, my friend came with a message saying that the buddy told him after dinner that there was a scammer like I was like me.

After looking at the girl's summer vacation, the child asked the child to track and record the work of the parents one day and talk about it.Visual inspection of this homework is bad ...

As of September 29, 16, the increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shenzhen Composite Index this year was -13.04%and -13.99%, respectively.23.34%, of which 459 (15.54%) of more than 10%(15.54%), more than 20%of 327 (11%), more than 40%of 204 (6.9%), more than 60%of 157 (5.3 5.3 5.3%), 121 (4.1%) of more than 100%.The average increase in the entire market is -0.93%.

In the same period, the income of the sunshine private placement of third -party statistics (based on the latest data): a total of 1001 products obtained by positive income, accounting for 27.67%of the total number of 3617 products this year's revenue record, of which more than 10%of the income exceeded 10%, more than 20%Of 73, more than 40%of 13, accounting for 5.88%, 2.01%, and 0.35%, respectively.

On October 16, 2007, the highest point of 6124 points (October 17, 16th), the average increase in the number of 1132 stocks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 94.44%, and the median increase was 49.82%.The compound yield is 4.59%(the median yield of the same period of the main board of the deep fixing index is also the same), which is actually higher than the 5 -year government bond interest rate.From this point of view, A shares are not just not playing hooligans, it is very kind.

Assuming that since the top of this super top, it is based on the industry segmentation of Shenwan: The median yield of the 9 -year yield of the industrial color category is 0.9%(actually not losing money), and the median of the chemical industry is 68.65%, Steel is -57.85%(seemingly the worst), home appliances are 108.34%, food and beverages are 68.5%, medical and biological 155.95%, real estate 27.75%, mechanical equipment 86.46%.

The Hang Seng Index was topped 31958 on October 30, 2007.The average number of calculations of the Hong Kong motherboard 1704 stocks increased by 66.65%, and the median was -14.43%.The average increase in the same period of all Hong Kong stocks increased by 61.86%, with a median of -17.3%.If it is miserable, the yield of Hong Kong stocks is 1160 at the same time, accounting for 59.39%of all Hong Kong stocks.The Shanghai Stock Exchange is a negative 327, accounting for 28.91%of the total Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Someone always told me that Hong Kong stocks are representatives of mature markets, and A shares should be on.I wondered that two ends like Hong Kong stocks (a large number of listed companies are from outside, and the main flow of money on the market is also from the outside) market. How can it become a model?It is not so much a different species.Of course, as long as the market is enough, you can make money, but to say that the development and learning direction of the A -share market can only be US stocks.

As the saying goes, men are afraid of entering the wrong line, so what is a good industry?In fact, there is a most intuitive observation point. If you can see many middle -aged and elderly people in this industry, and these old guys are in the peak of their careers, generally, it is an industry that can be entrusted for life.On the contrary, do n’t look at the industry ’s very lively and bright, but basically all youth meals. It’ s not rare to retreat to the edge of 35 or more. Then transfer to career early.

Think of this cycle of the Rio Olympics, it is also a typical cycle of the Chinese stock market.Looking back at 12 years, I am really emotional.It can be said that from the perspective of wealth in the past 4 years, there is also a grand competitive stage. The difference is that regardless of whether they are willing or not, you are all on the court.Since it is a game, it is normal to win and win.But I don't like losing, and I don't want to pay too much for winning, so I can only continue the self -cultivation of one retail investor.

(July 1, 16) Watch a ranking of private equity performance for five years. The championship product of the data of 5 years is 4.27 times, and the average income of the top 10 is 2.35 times.This is the highest yield of thousands of private equity products and has not considered the problem of stability volatility.Investment is not easy. If you think it is easy, it is an illusion or a bad sign.

Do not invest is the risk of increasing harm over time. Major capital permanent losses are the most terrible risks. Fluctuations are the most common and must bear risks.The first type of risk comes from the lack of consciousness, the second type of risk comes from recklessness, and the third type of risk comes from objective laws.For professional investors, the first and second types of risks need to be completely avoided.The third type of risk must be accepted frankly, but it needs to be made up with sufficient odds and anti -fragile systems.

The learning progress of investment is actually very difficult. From seeing understanding, understanding to realization, from realization to reunion, from reunion to integration, every node problem will get you halfway.In 11 years, I realized that the essence of investment is the three elements of "object, timing, and strength".Reaches a state of determination.After a long time, you will understand that this line is really a talent that is both talented and hard -working, and occasionally fights.

What makes me more anxious than not making money for 2 years is to find that I have not grown for 2 years.Without understanding the new thing, it must not be because I have exhausted the truth, but because I have been slack, slow, laziness, or more terrible.The happiest place to invest is that you can earn money to earn money, or even count the money.But the most cruel thing is the probability of always returning to zero overnight.The continuous progress itself is to avoid the biggest guarantee of zero.

The advancement of investment in investment is not as good as being less than lessons, and lessons are not as good as thinking. Diligence is not as good as a good master. Good masters must also cooperate with good quality. In fact, good quality also requires good luck.So which one do you think you are blocked?Most of them think that they have not encountered a good master, and few people feel that their own character needs to be improved.This has revealed the answer to the question.

The so -called character is actually an investment personality.I personally appreciate rationality, dialectics, moderate, and clumsy.On the one hand, there is no shortage of good masters. On the one hand, there is no shortage of works of so many investment masters and the case summary of the cases of outstanding investors on the Internet. It is actually enough to learn.On the other hand, you can also see, which good investor was fed by a good master on his trouser belt every day?

There are two ways to lose money: 1. You really lose money; 2, although your income has increased, the average growth rate of social wealth is much higher than your income growth.There are two ways to make money: 1. You really make money; 2. Although your income has not increased, the main assets of most people have depreciated sharply.In the past, the improvement of the wealth class mainly depends on the latter 1 and the 2 of the former, but in the future, there will always be 2 at the time of the latter.

Height, depth, and angle are three different styles of fundamental investment in fundamentals.Highly values the overall opportunity, and a long -term regular research on a major scope to capture systemic strategic opportunities as the core; the deep type is mainly aimed at the individual, focusing on the in -depth research and long -term value measurement of the enterprise, and the core growth with high -quality enterprises is the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as the core as its core; The angle type is also mainly based on individual research, but the current market expectations and corporate value are mainly grasped the opportunity of market errors.

In the world of investment, the results of a big opportunity far more than thousands of toss.In the same era, everyone actually faces the same opportunities. The difference is only to grasp.Real opportunities to grasp once to change the situation once; grasp the two new lives; grasping the whole family three times will be different.Judging from the historical laws of A shares, in fact, every 3-5 years, there is a high probability that you will encounter a good opportunity. However, most people have already been abandoned in various small toss.

However, the ability to grasp the big opportunity requires sufficient advances.To put it plainly, you do n’t study today. The big opportunity after 2 years is basically without you.It has not improved in 5 years, and in 10 years, I can only watch the winners even as a few life steps and look at the ocean.It seems that life is long, but the golden period of real learning and feedback to investment results is actually more than ten years.I missed the gold window of this wealth, and it was too late to understand.

There are two types of big opportunities: one is to see that a major trend grows together with the times.For example, in the past ten years of real estate, the increase in a single year is not amazing, and the big income is actually boiled; the other is to seize the opportunities from the crisis and use the public's fear and greed for me.The previous one requires a good forward -looking and large pattern, and the latter is the keen intuition and insight into risks and opportunities. The common requirements for the two are: strong patience and perseverance.

(August 16th) The economic situation of the L -shaped type shows that the current traditional enterprise that constitutes the profitable subject of listed companies is difficult to have a trend of profitability; the current low interest rate level indicates that it is difficult to significantly significantly from the perspective of liquidity.Enhance the valuation of the stock market.If there are no obvious positive elasticity in terms of profit trends and discounts, where does the bull market come from?But the good news is that after all, A shares are already large and diverse. Even if you repeat the long bear of 01-05, I believe that there will be more opportunities for individual stocks.

If there is something worse in this world than being driven by greed, it may be driven away by fear.In fact, each foam is in this way. It was because of value. After half the scene, it was blindly optimistic and greedy, and most of the last entry was accepted because of "missing this time, no chance anymore".The last stage of the foam is indeed the most profiteering stage, but the premise is that it can smoothly escape the cash.If the bubbles can be rich, there are no poor people in Europe and the United States.

Is an expenditure first distinguished from consumption or investment?In fact, it doesn't matter if you consume, it is not expensive, either you are rich and willful, or you are happy to buy Grandpa. This is not measured by economic benefits.If it is an investment, the perspective is actually simpler to measure the "risk income ratio". It is necessary to consider the long -term period of investment, the opportunity cost of optional varieties, the rationality of different asset allocation structures, the resistance to accidental risks, the mid -to -long financial finance, and the mid -term finance financial.The implementation path of the target.I can't tell these things. Let's talk about "whether to buy". Basically, the degree of financial management has not yet passed.

(September 25, 16) If you have been buying more houses in the past ten years, it is definitely a master of investment and admire; if you start to pour the house in the past few years,Yes, congratulations; if you do not rely on the house to get rich but at least low cost solve the housing problem, there is at least no passive reduction, fortunately; if you have not occupied the above, you will start buying your best to buy a house in the near future ...Take care of yourself.

Investment faces a paradox: the effectiveness of the market determines that the known information will be reflected by the price soon, and if you want to overcome the market, you need to make a decision at a time that the information has not been clear.EssenceIs this possible?I think it is possible, but it is really not easy.It requires good business insights, the ability to integrate fundamental fragments information, and the ability to judge odds in accordance with market expectations.

(Connected) If you specifically evaluate the difficulty, overall it will improve simultaneously with your requirements for excess returns. If you have a harsh time goal for excess returns, this difficulty is infinite.On the contrary, if you have a normal mind, you can take a relatively moderate thinking to ensure the high win rate while significantly reduced the height of decision -making.But keeping usual heart, why isn't it a difficult action?

It is difficult to accurately predict the asset rise and fall, but it is not so difficult to make decisions that meet their long -term interests.The first is to stand on the side of high probability and common sense. The so -called gentleman does not stand under the wall; secondly, arrange the medium and long -term countermeasures to allow you to be in a must -win position, and pay at most the cost; finally, learn to make choices.Short -term interests obey long -term interests, tactical arrangements obey strategic planning, and profit targets obey the principle of risk control.This is actually the winner rules.

Instead of thinking about how to die perfectly?From a spiritual level, it is key to ensure that you have been ignorant but not feel ignorant.It would be better if you just have a bit of perseverance and impetuousness and competition. If you still have the minds of ideology and dominance, it is even more of the topic; at the technical level, you should dare to gamble, especially dare to go on leverage.The most popular varieties are specially selected, and they are decisively entered at the moment when their valuations are the highest valuation and the highest performance.In the end, remember that you do n’t admit your mistakes, and you will lie on the spot where you fall.

When people go smoothly, they are easy to float, especially for investment. If they coincide with outstanding results in these two years, they often look at others and they will not speak.Unfortunately, this is not self -confidence, called shallow.For those who invest in, they must always leave a position for their own trough period. This is not pretending, but to understand enough investment history and a deep understanding of the nature of investment.EssenceThe humility of the market may not make you succeed, but the arrogance will definitely make you unlucky.

Wang Jianlin's small goal choice is actually suitable for investment.Don't come up first, pick up the posture of becoming a great investor. First of all, the goal is not to lose money, then improve to continuous profit, and then realize financial freedom. Finally, consider whether it can be great.The embarrassment of life is often the ideal that is too great, and the ability is too humble.Or have a dream every day, but never act.

"Low -interest environment+high -speed price increase" is indeed a paradise that uses leverage. The low interest rate makes the investment cost lower, and the rise in prices can cover up all investment loopholes.However, the interest environment is changing, the range and direction of price rise and fall will also change. In particular, for poor mobility assets, it is necessary to consider the essential characteristics of the medium and long term.The often situation of investment is that when the price fully reflects optimistic information, everything that happens is not good, and the same is true.

"Market is effective" seems to be the same as "the market is correct", but there is actually a essential difference.The market is effective. It is assumed that the market can reflect most of the information. The effective reflection includes "known, correct, and certain" information, and also contains "speculative, unconfirmed, uncertain"Information.The market is correct, assuming that the market can give an accurate and proper reflection after the market can be integrated.I think the market is valid, but it is not necessarily correct.

(Connected) If the market is really correct or always correct, then investors can almost have nothing to do.However, the market is effective. In the long run, the inherent value will inevitably deviate from the price for a long time, and the investment will have anchor. In the short period of time, the effectiveness contains the "fundamentals, uncertainty and emotion" factor.Find the opportunity when the error is enlarged in the conflict of these people.

(Connected) If you are more subdivided, the strong and effective market as a whole is relatively stable, but the efficiency of obtaining opportunities is also low; the weak and effective market fluctuations are greater but the efficiency of obtaining opportunities is also high.For the former, the object selection is a decisive and the timing choice is relatively weakened; for the latter, the weight of the object and the time in investment cannot be despised.In the strong and effective market, it is difficult to counterattack, and the weak and effective market counterattacks are easy.

To live well in the world of investment, one must rely on the sense of risk, and the other must rely on the intuition of opportunities.A nose that can smell risks is a basis for living, and you are not afraid of no firewood.If there is any intuition for big opportunities, it is difficult to live well.In fact, regardless of risk and opportunities, it is essentially the treatment of uncertainty. Learning to understand the complexity of the world and the limitations of individuals is the basis for establishing this processing mechanism.

When Danish physicist Barc studies on sands, when the sand is constantly piled up, the sand piles will continue to accumulate and gradually enter a "self -organized critical state", and then collapse will occur, but the accurate time and form of collapse will be difficult to predict.American investor Gayi believes that this has many similarities with the evolution of the market. For investors, rational observations and avoiding this asset that is in a risk of self -organized criticality is the bottom line of success.

However, most people we see belong to two categories: the first category is to watch the sand piles constantly gather and rise and start to believe that this is a completely different sand pile in history.This can find out various reasons to make yourself more convinced of this point; the other is to make yourself smart and believe that you can accurately predict the accurate time and form of collapse and become the last winner of the victory.

Reading some books of investment masters often find out that strong rationality is like them, and they still bother to establish firewalls for themselves to isolate the murmur of the market.These measures from looking for a quiet office place, to consciously set the market terminal to inadequate use in the room, and then look out outside the market to find activities that make the soul stabilize.And we are fragile and immature like us, but they often believe that staring at the market at all times is the king of victory, and even monitor the simulating N display as a sign of professional masters. There is no harm without comparison.

I was surprised that a elder sister of the company suddenly died of myocardial infarction, only 50 years old.In fact, she has long been in financial freedom, but she has been working hard in her career, and in recent years, she has been around more than one such example.Although I admire a person with a strong career, people are really younger when they reach middle age.Overall, the world is driven by people who are struggling, but happiness from individuals is a variety of ways. It is not a blessing to settle in ordinaryness.

In the final analysis, investment is to eat by judgment, and maintaining a good judgment requires a relaxed normal.Thinking is a strange thing. Every day, he is highly nervous for every short -term interest. All you get is fatigue and anxiety.Learn to transfer attention to places that have nothing to do with the current market, and keep yourself relaxing your body and mind. You will be surprised to find that in the joy of poetry and far away, you often come up with some good ideas.

The ultimate goal of investment learning is to enter the realm of "the Kingdom of Liberty".At this time, you have already studied the various styles of different schools. After long -term practice and various struggles and reflections, all the scattered knowledge points will start to become smooth and fusion one day.The point of view will present dialectical unity in different directions. The complicated investment system has become increasingly simplified into several simple input and output interfaces. At this time, you know that you are free.

(October 30, 16) The high fluctuations in the market do not represent high risk. On the contrary, the calmness of the market is not equal to balance. Putting on different standards is completely different.A small wave.The key to equilibrium and imbalances is not a short -term volatility, but the problem of how far from the value line.In other words, the degree of volatility only reflects the intensity of emotions, but it determines the deviation of price and value in the medium and long term.

There are many similarities in life and investment: both are essentially uncertain, but they both have a way to improve long -term winning percentage; more important than knowing what to do is to understand what is absolutely unable to do; decide to decideOne of the life luck is often just a few judgments and decisions; various short -term accidents will be ironed by time, and the final result is basically fair; what to do determines the difficulty, the most painful thing is that the most painful thing is not to miss the missed.It is too late when I understand.

For young people, it is most important to live, and when people are in middle age, it is more important to live better than living.Unfortunately, there are not many wonderful people when you are young, because you often worry too much when you do n’t worry; people live less when they are in middle age, because they can understand that they can understand what they mean.There are fewer things.

Either religious beliefs, poetry and far away, and professional investment. In my limited experience and observation, those who use these three to evade real life or change the state of survival to barely cater, basically there is nothing to end.On the contrary, the kind of life attitude is very accumulated, waiting for the material and mental state to try it after the water is completed, and basically it has obtained a good result.

People live for a lifetime and do not pursue the prestige of others to see your face, but you must have the confidence that you don't look at others.Be a good person, but don't need to be a gentleman.Can be grieved, but can't bear to swallow everything.Can't eat hard, but don't enjoy blessing.In fact, the tossing time is long, and it will eventually find that it is easy to live in the eyes of others, and it is difficult to live as the real yearning in your heart.

Let me tell you a story first:

A hunter went to check his cage in the morning and found that there were 12 turkeys in the cage. Before he put down the cage door, a turkey slipped out of the cage."Well, shook hands slowly, let me wait, see if the turkey will run back to the cage by himself." When he opened the cage gate and waited for the turkey to return to the cage, there were two turkey runningGo out."Seeing ghosts, 11 turkeys are already good. How can I let those two turkey run away? Now as long as the three turkeys who go out are one back, I will close." Soon, there are three turkey.I left the cage, and then there were 3!When there was only the last turkey in the cage, the hunter Mao: "Either one is not required, but if there is one return, I will close the cage and go home with 2 turkey." Finally, this hunterGo home empty -handed!

When you have some experience in stock trading experience, when you read this story, you will have a smile that will make a heart -seeking smile!This psychological process is very familiar to them, and everyone will experience this process!Buy the stock at 20 yuan and set a stop loss for 18 yuan. When the stock falls to 18 yuan, have you thought about waiting?Maybe the stock rebounds!If the stock falls 16 yuan, will you pat your mind and say, "It should really be done according to the fixed rules! Let's leave at 18 yuan; now if the stock rebounds 5 cents, I will say goodbye!" The stock fell to 10 yuanWhat should you do?Will you make hair?Will you make it fierce: "I spent this time! Now I won't go, I want to see where you will fall to the lowest?"

Frankly speaking, except for your own beliefs, everything else opposes your success in the stock market, even if your relatives and friends are the same!At the beginning of the stock market, it may be generous. Over time, you will understand how vicious it is to collect debt.

Therefore, we must know that in the stock market, we must first keep in mind the 5 major survival rules:

Law 1: recognize the trend;

The trend of the market is changing, but the future development trend of the market can also be captured. This requires investors to capture market emotional trends as much as possible.It should also be prepared for reverse adjustment, because the reverse operation must suffer a certain amount of loss, and the stop loss position must be set.

Law 2: inertia thinking and reverse thinking

Inertia thinking is a common thinking mode for investors, but the changes in the market in operation requires investors to break the inherent inertial thinking.However, in the stock market, 99%of active traders are the easiest to look at the top, and the bottom is empty. This is the big mistake made by investors. Therefore, if you want to make moneyInertia thinking, reverse thinking, reverse operation.

Law 3: Outside the "city", overcome greed, soaring and panic

Once you can't see the situation in the operation, you must be outside the market, because the cost of delay is much smaller than the loss. Don't be greedy when you encounter the bull market.Adjust your psychological state, make a calm judgment thinking, and continue to make a profit in the operation.

Law four: decisively choose trading transactions

When deciding to buy and sell operations, buying and selling is just an instant operation, but the profit and loss brought by it cannot be estimated, so you must decisively when you make a choice. Do not hesitate blindly.No matter how regrettable, you can't follow the public to follow the public. You must build your own trading plan and investment method, because there are no experts in the stock market, and some are only experienced and technical analysis methods that you operate in actual combat.

Law 5: peaceful mentality is the key to investment

Maintaining a calm mentality at any time is the right choice, because maintaining a peaceful mentality and clear mind will not rush to operate news in the stock market, and will not conduct a large number of transactions when you are anxious.The dilemma of the transaction does not allow your own situation in the stock market to affect his investment judgment, in order to make the right decision and obtain benefits.

Familiar with these 5 major survival rules, at least it can make you lose less in the stock market, so how can you make money in the stock market?In fact, there are many ways to make online forums, but they are all mixed. In the eyes of the author, wanting to make money is nothing more than a good stock. This is the key.And the good stocks need to have these three thinking guidance:

1. Probability thinking

Probability thinking has been applied in Texas Hold'em. The essence of Texas Poker's essence management, mentality management, and probability victory.The probability of thinking in the stock market is also very important. Because the opportunities and risks in the stock market are probably probably and accidental, it is impossible to be alone. When you buy the stock, you will have a full position and the daily limit.Other legal means cannot be realized. Only our profit model is a high probability in the statistical sample is an effective profit model. Making money is not necessarily the last word. It depends on whether it can be sustainable and stable.

The victory of the ages is reason, the victory of the moment!The result of one random event can be used to predict the results of another random event.For a problem with a probability of only 50 %, even if it is guessing out of thin air, there will be a continuous time.It cannot be used to explain what to do afterwards. The key is to see what logic we have mastered at the beginning and what are the correct choices, rather than observing it afterwards!You can't set a trend first before finding the argument. The stock market has enough theories. Afterwards, all phenomena are explained. A effective analysis method must be related to the research object in principle.The tools provide solid support for judgment.

2. Game thinking

In the stock market, money is only flowing in all parties in the market, which requires the study of game thinking, because the money you make is to pay for other investors. The market itself will not make blood.There are only a handful of dividends, which is not the same as the market environment in the United States. There is no soil to survive in value investment. Fish farming first raises water. High -oxygen tropical fish will die soon in a hypoxic environment of cold water.Each stock is a bureau. The major shareholder retail investors are enlisted. The major shareholders and the main force are the leaders of the bureau. They are big pigs in the game of Zhizhu. If the piglets want to make money, they must follow the big pig., Study the big pigs, ambush the big pig, find the weakness of the big pig, or find the direction of the interests of big pigs and pigs!The cost of studying the main bargaining chips, studying the subjects recognized by the main force, studying the main force of injuries, and studying major shareholders must make inevitable actions for their own interests.The market trend is the biggest factors that restrict the enthusiasm of the main operation. The general trend is not good, and the main force is not easy to ship. There are many judgments in the general trend: policy, market capital, market emotional face, and the main funds of the market.These can continue to summarize through daily re -examinations.

3. Net thinking

The rise and fall of a stock is not an indicator. One factor determines that he is determined by multiple factors to jointly form a joint force. To study a stock, you must study whether the market's general situation is matched with his own operating ability to make money.Whether the effect is matched with your own position? Study whether the stocks you choose have potential hotspots, whether the sector has strong allies support, the favorable factor of individual stocks, the main force, the topic of the subject matter, the technical surface, the more thinking, and the more mindfulness, andThe enthusiasm of other stocks is relatively main operation. It uses a series of quantitative extra points reduction systems to determine operating, rather than shooting head gambling, and Zhuge Liang afterwards.

Like the movement of anything, the stock price movement also has a certain law. There is a close relationship between high -priced stocks, low -cost shares, and low -priced stocks. In a long -term market, it often follows the order from high to low.After passing, the other section will soon take over the leading list.Mastering the rotation of the sector is expected to move from one victory to another.How do we grasp the signal of the start and decline of a certain sector as soon as possible?

There are three main signals started in a certain section:

1. Look at the increase list. If in the top 20 of the gain list, when the stock of a certain sector occupies more than 13 or more, this situation can be initially determined that the plate is initially determined that the sector is initially determined.

2. Look at the trading volume. If of the top 20 in the transaction volume, when the number of stocks in a certain section accounts for more than 13, this situation will occur for a period of time.The possibility of rising.

3. Look at the trend, choose 5-8 of each representative stock from high -priced stocks, medium -priced stocks, and low prices. It compares their trend strong and weak.The number of strong individual stocks is more, so this section is the startup section we are looking for.

The sign of the decline of a certain section has the following points:

1. Look at the increase, if in the top 20 of the increase list, the stock of a certain section is less than 14, and it shows a decrease. At this timeItems

2. Look at the volume, if in the top 20 of the transaction volume, the individual stocks of a certain section are less than 14, and there is a decreasing trend, which proves that the sector is about to enter the state;

3. Looking at the ascending space, in general, the main force from the establishment of the position to the distribution must have at least 50%of the rise. If in a large -scale multi -headed market, after a certain section starts, the increase is less than 50%, which can be regarded as it can be regarded as it canLow-risk investment zone; the increase can be regarded as a risk investment zone between 50-80%; the increase of more than 80%, which can be regarded as a high-risk speculative area. When a certain sector's stock price enters the risk investment area and high-risk speculation zone, it willWe must be alert that the rising power of the sector is not enough.

4. Looking at the trend, from the original sector with a strong upward trend, choose 5-8 representative individual stocks to see if the moving average continues to be divergent or gradually converge.The convergence state, and even the moving average of some stocks starts to diverge downwards, indicating that the sector is about to rise or has risen in place.

5. Looking at the leading stocks, if the leading stocks in a certain section have risen weakly, or the first adjustment has been taken, indicating that the sector is already in the sunset Xishan, and the adjustment is nearly.

Human cleverness is by no means in terms of speculative skills, but is down -to -earth, lies in kindness, diligence, seriousness, trustworthiness, and persistent pursuit and persistence of justice and truth.You can set foot on speculation, but you will never succeed in speculation.Speculation is like climbing Mount Everest. Choosing it is irrational, but after choosing any irrational ideas and practices, it will bring a disaster. It is not deep enough to have any luck that can only show that the lessons that have been explained.When you see an ease of master, there must be countless bloody wounds behind him.

The exploration of the stock road is not stopped, there is no state, only a higher state.We can only move forward step by step under the premise of correct directions. There is no shortcut in the road of success. Mostness is our good teacher.

one.Our life should not be based on making money on the stock market. We should become the people who are responsible for ourselves, around the people, the society, and the country.Because in a real sense, you are just the owner of the wealth of the name. Wealth belongs to the entire society, but now there is only you for the time being, and the amount of wealth has nothing to do with whether a person is happy.The stock market is a place for hunting for funds. A person's success must be based on the failure of more people.If we are lucky enough to make money, I hope everyone can think about the sweat, tears, and even life hidden behind these money. While spending money to enrich our lives, we can use this money to do a little things that are beneficial to society.EssenceIn this regard, I think that the accumulation of morality and goodness are good for themselves, and the owner of money is better than the slaves of money.

two.The stock market is like a charming but brutal devil (I now feel more and more like a spiritual life, huh, a bit superstitious).Not only can she swallow your money, but she can even swallow people's lives and souls.Sadly, people cannot defeat the stock market in an absolute sense, because judgment and imagination cannot defeat the facts, or whether your victory is determined by you but the stock market.I think the ultimate masters are those who can be calm and retreat.The reason why Lvinston failed was because he was superstitious about his power and could not refuse the temptation of the stock market.In other words, he couldn't let it go. In "The Memoirs of the Stocks", he can see that he gave up his original holiday and hurriedly killed back to the stock market.Hehe, it is easier to get it, and it is the most difficult to do.In the stock market, you must pay attention to it yourself, you must pay a considerable price, but you cannot give up everything.The stock market is not important. You must pay attention to finding a balance between the two, otherwise it is easy to lose money and lose your life.(It is not like taking a steel wire ??? Perhaps professional masters will experience more in this regard ????)

three.If you want to succeed in the stock market, you must correctly understand the nature of the stock market.The closer you are, the closer to success.The most important question: What is the stock market?Some people may not think about it, but any shareholder is conscious or unconsciously answering this question.Of course, this question does not have the ultimate correct answer.At this stage, my understanding is that the stock market is a place for re -distribution of wealth, and the power behind the stock price lift is humanity. The specific price of the stock is achieved through multiple and air competition.All my thoughts are around this sentence.It is easy to make money in the stock market occasionally, but if you want to laugh for a long time, you must continue to discuss the following issues.

1.What is wealth?What does it mean to yourself?What is its actual influence on others?

2.Do you know yourself?Do you know others?Do you understand human nature?

3.What is the competition?Do you know it?How are you competing?How is the result?How do others compete?

Four.It is necessary to correctly realize that the difficulty of winning the stock market competition is far greater than other industries.The reason is: 1. The stock trading profit is fast.2, work is not hard.3. Low entry threshold.These factors have led to the intensity of competition in the stock market much more intense and cruel in other industries.Due to the defects of human nature and lack of understanding of the laws of competition, most people will be a victim.We must face this severe reality: it is not easy to make money in the stock market!IntersectionBut there are some people who have been relatively successful for a long time.So, where is the road to success?

five.I have a long period of time and I am deeply trapped in the theoretical and skills to find the answer to this question, but I haven't found it.After continuous learning and understanding (of course, it is not appreciating the stock market, but because it is tasting life). Now, at a glance, the answer to this question has been placed in front of me.As the saying goes, I do n’t know the true face of Lushan.You can see that there are mid -line masters and long -term masters in the stock market; some people have succeeded in using technical analysis, some people have succeeded in using value investment concepts, and some people use the theory to successfully use the theory.We have invested a lot of time, money, and feelings to struggle in the sea of stocks, but still defeat again and again, and scarred. What does it make them a small number of lucky people?My current point of view is: methods, theoretical, and even ideas are not the key tips. The reason why the masters stand out from the beings of the lure is because their individuals have a distinctive characteristics. These special people have found methods that suits them for themselves., Theory or concept, and be good at using the timing.Methods, theories, and even concepts can be learned, but you can't learn their traits.For example, you can make a temporary undulating ups and downs of the stock market like granite. Are you ready to cover the stock for more than ten years?The core competitive advantage of Bafitte is more patient and firm than other fund managers. You can learn the value investment concept, but can you do his patience and firmness?

six.Masters have different methods of success. Only by exploring their hearts can we find the key to their victory.The stock market is the competition of human nature. Those who can survive in the stock market for a long time are undoubtedly strong. The strong power of the masters is their minds. The common feature of all masters is that they can be at the level of mind (similar to long -lasting mental state) level level levels.Establish your own unique core competitiveness and continue to gain competitive advantages in the market, that is, masters have a knife that belongs to his own heart.But we will find: we will find: we will find:

1.They all have the minds and mentality of facing difficulties in the face of difficulties.This belongs to the level of life and world outlook.

2.They are all those who have firm faith and obey.

3.They study hard, be brave in practice, and like to face challenges.

4.They are good at learning from the experience of themselves and others, starting from me.

5.They are calm, patient and tough.

6.They have the overall view of the overall situation and vision.

7.They know their own defects and have effective restrictions.

8.They love the stock market and are willing to dedicate themselves to their careers.

Have you seen these quality shadows on masters such as Bafitte, Sorcese, Lynch, and other masters?Do you see these are the essence of the master's true strength?

seven.The above is the common quality of the masters. This is a necessary condition for the road of success, and it is also a necessary material for creating a master's knife.The road to the success of the stock market is definitely different from person to person. Everyone is different, but there are common rules to find.If you realize that the competition of the stock market is a comprehensive competition at the level of humanity, then you must establish your own unique core competitiveness at the mind level and continue to gain competitive advantage in the market. That is to sayYou can tailor you to make your own knife, which is also the only hope that you can survive in the cruel money killing field for a long time.All the methods, theories, and ideas you spend time and labor now are nothing more than a sword.There is no trick to take the life of different enemies in different circumstances, and the superstithers who are tricked often die in the tricks they think they know the most.The power of tricks is that the strength of the user, the strength of the opponent, and the cooperation of other conditions such as the environment, in fact, the invincible tricks in the world do not exist at all.The ordinary tricks will be amazing by the masters, and even if the sophisticated tricks are low, it will be flawed.Long -term competition is spoken by strength, and the outstanding mind is the embodiment of the true strength of the stock market. Whether the heart has multiple truly long -lasting and powerful power is the key to success or failure.Competition in humanity level If you have no advantage in mentality and personality and vulnerability, isn't it for nothing?If you are drunk all day in studying different methods, theories, and concepts, confusing that you are trying to find the invincible tricks in the world to sweep the stock market without effectively strengthening your heart -level cultivation, the end of the book is unbeaten?

eight.If you want to be a master of stock forest, you must pay attention to cultivating these outstanding qualities, and lack of one will lose!These qualities must be developed for most people. This requires a long time and all kinds of discipline. Sometimes you even give up some of the most fundamental faith in your heart to get it.Its painful taste is unimaginable.The glory of human nature is bred in suffering, and adversity is often the best teacher to cultivate outstanding heart.This is the real reason why the stock proverb says that it is not possible to cultivate mature shareholders without the ups and downs of the ups and downs.The true meaning of maturity lies in the maturity of their minds, not because they read this book, or suddenly discovered some tricks against the stock market.Competition never believes in tears. Only strong people at the mind level can survive in the stock market for a long time!

There are still competitions such as skills, knowledge, and other aspects in other industries, but the stock market is completely naked human competition, that is, the competition of people's comprehensive inherent quality.Therefore, the pit is abducted, and the ingenuity is omnipotent. Have you ever seen so many other places to play a variety of tricks and robbers who want to count your money anytime, anywhere?Where do you see deception and lies so much in the market?Why can't you do the simplest low buying high?Relying on smart and luck can only help you win for a while. What do you say to rely on you to win like this?

Nine.After saying so much, you can actually summarize in one sentence: the success of the stock market lies in whether it can break through the barriers of human nature, surpass themselves, and create a rigid and soft knife for themselves at the level of mind.This is the common point of all the masters. If you do n’t have your own knife, even if you spend more time to study those high -end swords, you can only have the end of death or surrender.You spend all your best to become a lucky one different from 90%of the losers, but in the end, it will only be contrary to his wish, because this is not a problem that can be solved at the level of winning by relying on methods, theories, and ideas.Mind.It is impossible to take a shortcut in the exploration of stock roads.Haha, can you understand why Peter Lynch said that it is useless to teach his method to others?Because it was his own knife method, wouldn't you want to use these knives to ask the enemy's life with these knives?The concept of value investment must be added with the Barfitan -style beliefs and patience, and the growth of the US economy can be exchanged for the success of the Barfield.In any case, success comes from the perfect cooperation of Tianshi, geographical interests, and people.The only thing you can do is to cultivate people, maximize the location, and wait patiently for the time.You can embark on a speculative path, but you must keep any speculative psychology!

ten.The master's knife is actually an outstanding mind.For novices, it takes a long time to accumulate the process to achieve, which has nothing to do with the height of a person's IQ and the theoretical knowledge.I believe that the day when you have the heart of the master, you naturally have the vision of the master at the same time.Although the K -line is still those K -line, although the waves are still wavy, it will really become lively and vivid from this moment; although the tricks are still those tricks, it can only be practical to you from this moment.Before the critical point of qualitative changes has not reached, even if you are full of menstrual and clever, how can you see gold everywhere with the eyes of human weaknesses?"When wealth comes, it will be so anxious in the future, so fast, making people strangely in that difficult years, where did these wealth hiding?" Does this sentence understand now?How many people will fight back? How many people will fight in ancient times?Only the battlefield can achieve heroes, and only suffering can create outstanding minds.It is ruthless in the sea and sea. There is no shortcut to speculate on the road of speculation. I hope that people who are destined to understand this is actually very simple.Coupled by the cleverness!People with a biased personality, who only want to take away the money of others by speculating. He has the silver in the stock market or late or early to be taken away by others!As the so -called six roots are not clean, why do you do it?The essence of the share road is outside the stock!

eleven.With your own knife, you really embarked on your own successful path, but forging this knife is something that any master and seniors can teach you. It is like wanting to learn to swim.Fluid mechanics and sports physiology will not help you much!The road to the master is a long and painful transformation road. Loneliness is your only partner. Failure is your best teacher!Bai Ningcheng Steel is as clear as mirrors, as tough as flowing water; when you live in a real life that is not happy and not sad; when you find that the chest is constantly flowing, there is constantly flowing in your chest.When the courage is "although tens of millions of people go", after thousands of practice, your knife is practiced.Will it be far from the day of pulling the knife and the world?

Are you willing to wake up from the gorgeous dream and decide to embark on the road of swordsman who always knotted with your heart?The prodigal sons of Tianya, even if you are in the rivers and lakes, where is your knife?

Guide: This article was a speech at the invitation of Suzhou academic circles in 1922. Although it has been a huge change in society in the past 93 years, it still has a reference significance for your youth generation.

Zhu Jun!I have been lectured in Nanjing for nearly three months.There are several times in the Suzhou academic circles and invite me. Unfortunately, I have my homework every day in Nanjing and I can't get over.Today, I can get together with the monarchs of the schools in the city, which makes me grateful.But there is one, and you have to ask the monarchs for forgiveness: because I have been with some illnesses for a month, I have barely supported. I ca n’t give a long lecture today.

Ask Zhu Jun: "Why enter the school?" I think everyone answered publicly: "For the sake of learning." Then asked: "Why do you want to learn?" "What do you want to learn?" I'm afraid I am afraidThe answers of each person are very different, or they can't answer themselves.Zhu Jun!I always answer for you: "To learn to be a person." The mathematics, geometry, physics, chemistry, physiology, psychology, history, geography, Chinese language, English, even what philosophy, literature, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, science, sciencePolitics, law, economy, education, agriculture, industry, business, etc., are just a means of being a person. It cannot be said that depending on these to achieve the purpose of being a person.Due to your proficiency in those pieces of you, you can become an individual, or another problem.

Human psychology, there are three parts: knowledge, affection, and meaning. These three parts of these three parts are complete and developed.Why is it called "Dade"?Because these three things are the standards of human ordinary morality, three must be available to become one person.How about the completion of the three pieces?Confucius said: "The people are not confused, the benevolent is not worried, and the brave is not afraid." Therefore, education should be divided into three aspects: influence, emotional education, and consciousness.narrow.—Chomatari to teach people not to be confused, love education should teach people not to worry, and to teach people not to be afraid.Educators teach students, and we should use these three as a one. We educate ourselves automatically, and we should use these three.

1. How can I not be confused?

The most important thing is to develop our judgment.To develop judgment: In the first step, you must have a considerable common sense. To further, you must have special knowledge for what you have to do.If a person has no common sense, hearing the thunder, saying that Lei Gong is prestigious, he sees the moon erosion, saying that it is the greedy of the shrimp.Then, there is no idea that there is nothing to make trouble. When you encounter a little difficult problem, you can solve it by asking God, asking, looking at the phase, and fortune telling.The so -called "puzzle" has become the poorest person.The teachings taught by elementary and middle schools in the school are that people have many basic common sense, so as not to explore all things in everything.But just this common sense is not enough.When we are a man, we always have a special occupation.This career is not to do it alone, and many people have done it before.They have accumulated countless experiences, and they have seen some principles and principles. This is specialized.I intend to do this profession, so I should have this special knowledge.For example, do I want to be farmers?What kind of improved soil, what kind of improved seeds, and what kind of defense of water, pests and insects, etc., have become knowledgeable.We have such knowledge. If you apply him to deal with these things, we will naturally not be confused.Working, business, and so on, each has his own specialized knowledge, as well as.Do I want to be a fiscalist?What kind of taxes can be born, what kind of public debt can be born, etc. It is the predecessor's experience to become knowledgeable.

We have such knowledge. If you apply him to deal with these things, we will naturally not be confused.Educators, military masters, etc., each has his own specialized knowledge, as well as.The knowledge we obtained in higher schools is this category.But is it enough to rely on this common sense and knowledge?No.The universe and life are alive, not dumb. What we meet every day is complex and changing, not simply, printing boards.If we only learned this one, then we understand this, then we came to follow the things that I haven't learned, and we are in a hurry.Therefore, we must also develop the overall wisdom in order to have a fundamental judgment.How can this overall wisdom be developed?The first one is to hone us the rough brain, told him to become fine and practical. Then, no matter how difficult it is encountered, you can think of his rules.EssenceThe second one is to make us have always raised him, and it really raises him and told him to turn into Qingming. Then, one thing is to follow, so I can judge him very calmly and clearly.EssenceThe above -mentioned common sense, knowledge, and overall wisdom are all the requirements for knowing education.

2. How can I not worry about it?

Why don't the benevolent worry about?If you want to understand this truth, you must first know what the outlook on life of China is.One of the words "benevolence", all the use of the Confucian views is inside.What is "benevolent" is difficult to explain in words.The next explanation can be said to be: "The realization of the general personality." Confucius said, "Benevolence, people also." The meaning is called "benevolent".But we need to know that personality can not be seen alone, and it must be seen from the relationship between people and people.Therefore, the word "benevolent" was from the two, and Zheng Kangcheng solved him as a "phase doll".All in all, we must have a sense of interoperability to become one, and then my personality can be realized.Therefore, if we do not talk about personalityism, there will be nothing to say about this.In other words, the universe is life, life is the universe, and my personality is different from the universe.

Experience this truth is called "benevolent".But why do you worry about this "benevolent"?There are always things that have always been worries, but ends of the outside: one is concerned, or failure, one is concerned.When we have a "benevolent" outlook on life, we will not worry.why?Because we know that the universe and life will never be perfect, so the Sixty -four hexagrams of the Book of Changes started to "do" and eventually "unbelievable".evolution.What we have done, but in the long distance of tens of thousands of miles in the universe, move forward one inch or two inches. Where is it successful?But what's not doing?If you do n’t do it, you do n’t even move one inch or two inch, but that really failed."Benevolence" see through this principle. Only if you do n’t do things, you will not fail. Everything will not fail.Wanli Road moved one or two inches, is it successful?So the Analects said: "You can't do it." You think: What else can people who have this outlook on life can be said?

Furthermore, we will not worry about gains and losses.why?Because I think that this is mine, I can do it.Even the personality does not exist alone, and it cannot be clearly drawn this part is mine, which part is from others, but there is something that can get me?There is nothing to get me, and of course nothing is lost in me.I just learn to learn and work for labor. It is not a means of doing a means of doing learning and working to a certain purpose -it can be "income" for us.So Lao Tzu said, "It is not born, not holding it for." "Both people, the more you have, the more you are with others, the more you think." You think: What else do you have to gain and lose?Can you worry?All in all, with this outlook on life, naturally you will feel that "heaven and earth are giving birth to me, and everything is with me". Naturally, it will "get into the world without being unhappy." His life is purely fun and artistic.This is the highest emotional education.

How can I not be afraid?

Without confusion and worries, of course, fear will be much reduced.But this is a matter of will.If a person is weak, he has a rich knowledge, and he will be temporarily unused. If you have a beautiful sentiment, he will change his hexagrams temporarily.But how can the will?The first one needs to be bright.Mencius said: "Haoran Qi, to Grand Grand." "If you do n’t have a heart, you will be discouraged." He also said, "It's not shrinking, although brown, I have no choice?Thousands of people, I go. "The vulgar words said good:" In his life, you don't do something bad, and you are not surprised to knock on the door in the middle of the night. "A person must maintain the courage, and you need to start publicly from all behaviors. This is the first.The second one should be restrained by the desire.The Analects said: "Zi said:" I haven't seen the rigid. 'Or right to say: "Shen Xun.' Zi said:" 枨 枨 论 论, 焉 焉 焉? "Hundred chain steel will also become soft.

In short, a person's will, from strong to weakness, from weak to strong.One person has a weakness of will, and this person is over.I can't afford my own Lord, what else can I do!Suppressed by others and being slaves in others, as long as you are willing to fight, you can finally restore freedom.His will to be a slave with his own desire. Then, it is really a lot of room for recovery.Confucius said: "He is not flowing, is strong and neutral, and relies on, strong, and the state of the country, without change, strong correction, the country has no way, until death, and strong." I honestly.Tell Zhujun, you will never become a person if you do not do so.But it is not easy to do so.If you can get home with your will, you naturally look at what you should do. He does not hesitate at all.In this way, it will be considered as a lifetime, and there will never be a ugly state of hiding the head and the left branch.This is the purpose of consciousness.

Let's take these three things to do the standard of human beings. Please think about it. I do that one by myself?Is that a little grasp?If you can't do it, you can't even grasp it at all, alas!That is really dangerous, you may not be able to do it in the future!Speaking of education in the school: The third layer of love of the second floor can be said to be completely absent. The rest is only the first layer of influence.Even if you know how to give birth: there is only the so -called common sense and knowledge, as for what I say about the overall wisdom to develop fundamental judgment, it is indeed not at all.This kind of education of "selling intellectual grocery stores" is really shuddering to think of his future!Now this kind of education cannot be changed for a while. Our cute youth, except he has no place to be educated.Zhu Jun!Do you want to be a person?You need to know danger!You have not trembling your own thoughts and self -help, no one can save you!

Zhu Jun!Don't think that some disconnected knowledge is learning!Let me tell you honestly: If you are a person, the more knowledge is, the better. If you ca n’t be a person, the more knowledge, the worse.Don't you believe it?Try to think about the nationwide thieves and people scolded by the people across the country. Is it knowledgeable, or have no knowledge?Think about the bureaucrats and politicians that people hate — are people who specialize in warlords and people who are evil and fish.Zhujun must know!These people, when they were in school for more than ten years, were full of anger and innocence. Why not like the monarchs, why did they fall into such fields?Qu Yuan said: "He's former grass, but Xiao Ai is now? How can he have the cause of him and the harm of it."Go to the bad road.The monarchs wake up!The person you hate and hate now is the lesson of the car.

Zhu Jun!Do you doubt now?Is it dull?Sad and painful?Do you think you can't resist the oppression outside?I tell you: You are suspicious and dull, you will be confused because you do n’t know. You are sad and painful, and you are worried because you do n’t think you can resist the oppression of the outside world.EssenceThis is your knowledge, affection, and unreasonable training, so you have not become a individual.I hope you have painful consciousness!With consciousness, it will naturally automatically.So outside of the school, of course, there are many knowledge. After reading a volume of scriptures, a history, you can see the good teachers of the monarchs everywhere!

Zhu Jun!wake up!Determine your fundamental wisdom, experience your view of personality, and protect your free will.Your adult is not an adult, just look at these years!

On December 27, 1922, he gave a lecture at the Suzhou Student Federation

Jia Yueting rarely reflects on the expansion of money to burn money.On November 16th, LeTV Holding C EO Jia Yueting released a 5500 -word internal letter to reflect on insufficient company funds due to the excessive rhythm. It announced that it would change the rhythm, say goodbye to burning money and focus on existing ecology.It is worth noting that Jia Yueting accepted an exclusive interview with Tencent on the same day. The tone also reflected that "expansion is too fast".

Behind Jia Yueting's high -profile reflection, it seemed to include crisis public relations.In the past week, with the rumors of LeTV's capital chain, LeTV's stock price continued to fall. Xiaomi Guanwei "Xiaomi Spokesperson" questioned LeTV's supply chain arrears, which further took the authenticity of LeTV's capital chain.EssenceLeTV's possible "crisis" is not a source of water. LeTV's "ecological" expansion has been questioned for a long time, and it is considered "unknown" by the outside world. It is particularly controversialEssence

In fact, while Jia Yueting reflects on the expansion of money, some people should reflect on my country's capital market, especially the A -share market.With the support of ultra -high price -earnings ratios, the market value of LeTV.com, a share listed company, once exceeded 100 billion yuan. At the same time, LeTV's stock price also rose up and down.It is rumored that the cumulative decline in LeTV's stock price reached 14.62%.Obviously, LeTV's problem actually reflects the problems of the A -share market itself. At least in terms of the value discovery function of listed companies, the A -share market does not fully show the characteristics of the effective market.

The A -share market is the main channel and core battlefield of LeTV's capital operations. Its unreasonable mechanism and low valid defects have provided LeTV's financing to provide controversial convenience.At present, LeTV's cumulative directly financing in the A -share market exceeds 10 billion yuan. In addition, Jia Yueting himself has repeatedly cash from LeTV's high -level cash out or pledged equity pledge to LeTV blood transfusion. Regardless of whether the above behavior involves direct violations of laws and regulations, you can.Often, the long -lasting high valuation of LeTV.com undoubtedly provides convenience for the above behavior, and also highlights its irrationality.It is also certain that financing is too convenient, rare and seductive. In fact, it makes LeTV's burning money expansion easier to lose impulses, rather than have sufficient business rationality.

Unlike companies that are easy to quantify as assets, Internet companies, as light asset companies, are more difficult to valuation, which actually puts forward higher requirements for the supervision of the A -share market.Compared with traditional industries, emerging industries have higher risk and lower quantization. Therefore, it depends on direct equity financing in terms of industrial attributes, but the premise is that there must be good market supervision.Taking the financial report of the Internet listed company as an example, because the characteristics of light assets are difficult to directly, accurate and quantitatively quantify, traditional financial accounting standards cannot be fully matched with Internet companies, which determines that Internet companies have more methods to control the final performance of financial reports.EssenceIt is for similar reasons that for investors, the invisible threshold for investing in such companies has actually been raised, and the importance of strict supervision of regulators is highlighted.

Implementing the supervision of A shares focuses on returning to the market and empowering the market.The introduction of the IPO registration system and the delisting system is a fundamental measure to correct the high valuation of the A -share market. However, if it cannot empower the market, the launch of the above system is likely to make the market more lost.The so -called empowerment of the market means that through the establishment of the inversion system and the collective litigation system, the right to supervise the rights of market entities such as listed companies to market participants represented by shareholders.As far as Jia Yueting and LeTV are concerned, the market has a lot of controversy and doubts about its frequent capital operations. Some disputes have completely reasons to rise to the height of the truth through institutional channels.This status quo also helps the standard development of listed companies.

When the issue of LeTV's capital chain is hidden and the stock price has fallen sharply, Jia Yueting's reflection may be timely. It must be seen that LeTV's business strategy, ecological thinking, or uniqueness, but he borrowed radical financing to expand and pull the forecast on the front.The approach to overlooking cash flow must be unsuitable.However, for LeTV's radical financing, more reflection should come from the A -share market. To some extent, it is precisely because of the unreasonable high valuation of the A -share market and the incomplete market supervision.The network may be proven to be facilitated in financing for the rights and interests of small and medium shareholders.

In recent years, the domestic private equity industry has developed rapidly.At the 2016 Global Private Equity Fund West Lake Summit held in Hangzhou yesterday, Tang Yiting, chairman of Le Rui Asset Management Co., Ltd., said that domestic private equity will become the main force to undertake overseas funds on the demand for Chinese asset allocation, and will also become a global asset for domestic funds to help domestic funds.Configuration new power.

Tang Yiting said that there are three forces that are promoting the rise of Chinese private equity funds, namely the increasing attraction of RMB assets to global investors, the global allocation of domestic residents, and the global influence of the People's Bank of China.

First of all, China's securities investment market has continued to increase overseas. With the introduction of the opening policy of the stock market and the bond market, and the Chinese market is included in the important international index, the demand for overseas will become stronger.Tang Yiting said that last year, the Central Bank of China opened the interbank bond market and the foreign exchange market to the central banks of other countries. In February 2016, the central bank released the quota of interbank bond markets in the intermediate and long -term institutional investors overseas, indicating that the "threshold" has been demolished.

In terms of goods, China is currently becoming the world's largest and most active commodity trading market.

"The way overseas institutional investors enter the country are usually the way of institutional investors. Through the form of FOF or MOM, hedge funds that have the pursuit of absolute income characteristics and stable performance returns have become the favor of institutional investors." Tang Yiting said.

Globally, Tang Yiting said that China's economic volume and the high -speed development of China have begun to show the global asset market through the independence of the People's Bank of China."Now, the Sino -US exchange rate has begun to interact, and the RMB slowly decouples with the US dollar, reflecting the influence of the Bank of China on global assets. The change in the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China not only directly affects China's financial and real economy, but also global financial and economy.It has an important impact, which is particularly obvious this year. "

He said that the influence of the renminbi is mainly manifested in the impact of the last two exchange rate fluctuations on the global market. Once in August last year, in January of this year, the depreciation of the renminbi caused a substantial fluctuation in the global financial market.

In his opinion, China's private equity funds have a more thorough and profound understanding of the central bank's policy, and have unique advantages.In the past, this advantage was not played, mainly due to the close reasons for the linked currency in China and the United States. Now the independence of Chinese monetary policy has been greatly strengthened. In the past two years, China has also increased private equity funds overseas.Unprecedented development opportunities.

At the 2016 Global Private Equity Fund West Lake Summit held in Hangzhou yesterday, Wang Wan, President of China asset Management Company of Qiaoshui Fund asset management company, said that the current global economic environment is a bit like the United States in the late 1930s and Japan in the 1990s. "In such an economic environment, the investment portfolio should be balanced. "

Wang Yan believes that the economic environment is mainly driven by three basic forces: one is the growth of long -term productivity, and the trend of upward for hundreds of years; the second is the short -term business cycle, generally 5 to 10 years; the third is 50 to 75 years.Long -term debt cycle.

"Our environment is the end of the long -term debt cycle, and the debt cannot continue to rise, because the debt and debt capacity are close to the limit, and the global monetary policy is close to the failure." He said that the market interest rate is also close to the lowest limit of the lowest limit.At the same time, due to the quantitative easing of the Fed in 2009, it also lowered the expected return on various assets.

In his opinion, most countries are currently close to the stages of the failure of monetary policy, because interest rates cannot be greatly reduced. In this case, the downlink pressure of long -term debt cycles offsets the upward trend of short -term debt cycles and productivity, which has led to the economy in the economy.A slow level of development.

Based on this, Bridge Water Fund made a summary: the world will be in the "unconventional" economic environment and market conditions in the future -inefficient growth, low inflation, low returns, and the pressure of various types of assets in the market in the future will increase.

So, what impact will such economic situation have on investment?

Wang Bo said that in terms of risk -free income, the return rate of previous cash can reach 5%-6%, and the return rate of all investment portfolios is 7%-8%. If the cash yield is very low, it will lower the entire investment.Combination.

"If the investment portfolio is made according to capital, for example, 60%are placed in stocks and 40%are placed in bonds. Most of the risks will be in a single asset. As the future economic environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, the entire entire will make the entire entire.Investment and returns cannot be combined. And what we currently do is to balance the entire investment portfolio as much as possible, "he said.

In simple terms, the framework for their investment is to first separate β and α when investing. When doing asset allocation, they will also take into account the configuration of balanced risk.Determination, so as to achieve a relatively stable return.

According to a reporter from the Futures Daily, Qiaoshui Fund has been established for more than 40 years, and currently manages about 160 billion U.S. dollars in the world.

George Soros is an investment master of the United States and Buffett, and it is also a speculator, devil and economic criminal in the eyes of many people.In his career, he has caused many people to remember many people's memories of the huge shocks caused by the US dollar, pounds, yen, Germany, Thai baht and Hong Kong dollars.

Soros at the London Institute of Political Science and Economics (LSE), James Edward Meade, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1977, and Karl Raimund Popper, a British philosopher Karl Raimund Popper,From the perspective of philosophy seriously, and explaining the way of world operations, the new theory of the new theory of the establishment of financial market operations is more profound.The influence of these two masters laid an important foundation for Soros's primary secrets -reflexivity.

Soros's reflection theory is also called the theory of regression. It means that when observing a certain investment variety, it is generally found that a certain trend will be found. Once the market starts to move in that direction, this trend will often continue for a period of time.For example, when the market gives investors a "improvement of performance" signals, the company's stock price usually rises, and the company's performance and market stock prices are promoted to each other, allowing the trend to continue.So there was a benign cycle, and the market and reality were like mirrors, reflecting the other party's touch and influence each other.

Specifically, Soros's investment theory can be divided into 24 points:

1. Breakthrough distorted concept

Thorrus found that human cognition was defective through early philosophical studies, and his views were distorted. The core of financial investment was to write an article about the lack of omissions and distortions of humans.

2. Pay attention to market expectations

Soros disagree with the complete free competition model established by traditional economics theory. He believes that the development of supply and demand relationship will be manipulated by the market, which will lead to price fluctuations rather than tend to be balanced.In addition, the future price trend is determined by the current buying or selling behavior.Therefore, it is necessary to rely on your own understanding to expect the market.

3. The ineffectiveness of the market

The effective market theory of classical economics assumes that the financial market will eventually go to balance. According to Soros's point of view, the operating method of the financial market is destined to be an invalid market, that is, irrationality.Relying on the valid market theory, the judgment of the market is also unreliable. Utilizing and grasping the investment opportunities provided by the invalid market, Soros's fund has developed a large development.

4. Find deviation

The market expectations of market participants in the uneven operation of the financial market have inevitably deviated market expectations and objective things. The tendency to find excessive non -balanced markets to find the market is a shortcut to find investment opportunities.

5. Discover contact

Market participants have prejudice operations, and prejudice itself can also affect the promotion of the event.Soros believes that the prejudice of market participants and the process of reality are reactionary, and future events are shaped by current expectations.

6. Reveal market bias

According to the theory of reflection, the market is inherently unstable, prejudice and cognitive defects will further lead to market fluctuations, and will once again affect investors' expectations -two -way feedback between cognition and reality. This instability will be the speculatorsExtremely beneficial.

7. Use market instability

When the market expects to be deviated with objective things, the financial market will have a continuous "ups and downs" unstable state, thereby providing investors with opportunities to understand market ideas.

8. Grasp confusion

Soros believes that the foundation of the stock market is not a logical level, but based on the psychological level of group instinct. Understanding the root cause of chaos in the financial market is the good recipe for making money.

9. Make good use of over -reaction markets

The cognitive defects and blind obedience of retail investors will extend the market too much, and when the deviation is too large to exceed a critical point, the opposite trend will occur.Soros will follow the trend most of the time, looking for a turning point in the trend and preparing to invest in reverse.

10. Basic aspects

Soros believes that the prejudice of market participants not only determines the market price, but also affects the "fundamentals", thereby reflecting the theory to play a role.Once the fundamentals are affected, it can be one step fast.

11. Investment first and then investigate

In investment practice, Soros always assumes a development trend based on research, and then establishes a small position to test the market. If it is valid, he will continue to invest huge sums of money; if it is wrong, he will withdraw funds without hesitation.

12. Forecast trend

Soros is good at analyzing the industry and stocks from macro social, economic and political factors, in order to discover the huge gap between expectations and actual stock prices to make a profit.

13. Courage to break through

Many investors' mistakes are clearly and accurately grasped market trends but missed the opportunity because they lack confidence.Soros's point of view is: If you have a great grasp of a certain transaction, you should be bravely injected in large quantities and keep a balance on high leverage.

14. Listening is Mingming

Soros believes that in addition to analyzing professional knowledge, intuition's role in investment is also important.And his intuition often comes from the macro consideration of international trade status and the views and strategies of the macroeconomic development trend from many international financial authorities around him.

15. Survival self -protection

Although investment with credit leverage can expand profitability, once errors occur, they will lose heavy losses.One of the reasons why Soros succeeded was that he was good at survival at a desperate place. When he found the mistake, he closed early and retreated in time to avoid greater losses.

16. Accept the error

Soros believes that although it is not a glorious thing to make mistakes, this is part of the game after all.Therefore, at the beginning of the investment, he often assumes that the investment positions he established may be wrong and alert. In this way, he can discover and correct mistakes more time than most people.

17. Don't gambler's mentality

In Soros's view, it is understandable to bear the risk itself, but the lonely gambling adventure should be stopped in time.

18. Thinking and self -introspection

Soros has a beaming of the financial market. He believes that the effect of interest rates and exchange rate changes takes time, so the entire investment is often a long -lasting battle.Spending time to think, learning and self -provincial are often an important part of the waiting process.

19. Endure pain

Soros once said that if you are not ready to endure pain, then don't play such games anymore.Investors must know how to keep calm and suffer losses.

20. Psychological quality

Stable psychological quality and steel -like will are important secrets of Soros's success. He understands the unreasonable side of the market. Therefore, he is like a shepherd. In most times, he moves with the cow group. Once there is an opportunity, there will be an opportunityIt will be keenly aware of and rushing to the front of the cattle.

21. Both sides avoidance

Soros is a master -level figure in the field of hedging funds. He knows that he has diversified the composition of risk assets in the investment parts through bets and shorts, thereby avoiding risks to a certain extent.

22. Keep a low -key

While Soros opened his investment in investment, he often kept low -key on himself. He was always taboo for his investment strategy, and he rarely announced his secrets in the public.

23. Make good use of leverage

Understanding leverage can not only improve investment, but also further increase the rate of return.However, lever investment not only requires good psychological quality, but also needs to maintain the skills and abilities of leveraged balance.

24. Best and worst

Soros's macro analysis is to pay attention to the large pattern -international politics, monetary policy, inflation, interest rates, exchange rate changes, etc.Then he will choose the best and worst stocks in the industry and ignore other stocks. He believes that this cock strategy will perform well.

The core of the transaction is trial and error, and each transaction should be tried and error.

People care too much about the success or failure of each transaction, and the winning rate of 30%, but can make money. This principle must be thorough, 60%of the winning rate, but eventually losing money. This principle must also be thorough.Almost most traders are too concerned about winning rates and pursue winning rates throughout their lives.Because I care about winning percentage, too attached to the gains and losses of each transaction, you have no courage to try and error.

Everyone ignores a more important indicator -odds (profit and loss ratio). The winning percentage is limited. The winning percentage will never reach 100%, but the odds (profit and loss ratio) are unlimited.The odds can reach 2 times and 3 times in practice ... N times, it is possible. When the odds reach 10 times, the winning rate of more than 10%can make money.In exchange for multiple losses for a large profit (high odds).

The common point of transactions and gambling: Both the fund management strategies with probability and odds as the core elements win; the differences between transactions and gambling: The probability and odds of gambling games are static and certain.The probability and odds of futures (or foreign exchange) transactions are dynamic and uncertain, and cannot be accurately calculated (can only be statistics afterwards). Traders need to dynamically grasp themselves. This is also the biggest difficulty of trading technology.

For example, after the Texas Hold'em game, after knowing the probability and odds of various types of brand types, players are only how to do fund management; and for futures transactions, traders must not only do fund management, but also how to design one of them.The set of trading rules with probability or odds of odds.In other words, trading rules and fund management strategies are two wheels of transactions, which is indispensable.

No matter what genre trading technology you believe and accept, you will eventually come back to gambling with probability and odds as the core.The successful trading person must be the thinking of the casino owner, and the trading loser must be the thinking of gamblers.

Therefore, do not use the thinking of gamblers, but to trade casino thinking, this is the only way out of traders.Your trading system is equivalent to the game rules designed by the actuary of the casino, and this game rules must have the probability or odds advantage of long -term bets.Used for actual combat.Don't believe in any form of precise predictions, your friends only have the "big number of laws."If you have designed the rules of the game that must be lost, the better your mentality, the stricter discipline, and the stronger the execution, the more you pay. Therefore, it is meaningless to talk about your mentality and trading discipline.

Whether your trading system can have the advantages of probability or odds is the basis for all trading games, otherwise, you cannot engage in trading activities at all.Therefore, research gambling is closer to the truth of transaction than research transaction technology.The core elements of gambling and transactions are probability and odds, and all gambling and transaction technology exist for the advantages of the two.

Scientist Kelly used the Kelly formula in invention of mathematical probability theory, which has a profound influence in the world gambling field.

Kelly Formula: F*= (PB-Q)/B


f* - Betting amount to the proportion of total funds (that is, "capital position rate");

P -The probability of winning expected to win (that is, "winning rate");

Q — The probability of failure to fail (that is, "1-win rate");

B -The ratio of expected profit and expected losses (that is, "odds");

The "use of small bloggers" strategy is low, but the odds are high. It mainly rely on multiple small losses in exchange for high -profit advantage strategies for high -profit. Therefore, it must be guaranteed at a very light position (4%position rate) to ensureThere are more opportunities for trial and error; and the "use of big blogging" strategy has a high win rate, but the odds are low, and they can get better results at a higher position (40%position rate).

In short, the winning rate or odds can win as long as you have an advantage. Of course, those who have the advantages of high winning rate and high odds at the same time are rare talented figures.

Recently, the China and World Economic Forum of Tsinghua University were held in Beijing.The forum was hosted by the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, and the theme was "Seeking Breakthrough 2016".On the forum, Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University, and Wu Xiao, vice president of Renmin University of China, begged to start a discussion on the Chinese stock market.Wu Xiaoqiu believes that financial reform should create more financial products so that financiers can choose freely and match suitable financing instruments based on risks and income.This article is sorted out by the discussion content.

Wu Xiaoqiu believes that the registration system will be promoted within five years, but the degree of social governance will be needed.

7%of the renminbi depreciation is a recent basic bottom line

Li Daokui: We say that economic breakthroughs, do you think is possible? In the next year, investors' enthusiasm for real estate has gradually retreated, and funds have shifted to the stock market?Although the stock market is still sluggish, is it possible that for a period of time, the real estate has weakened and the stock market has begun to strengthen?

Wu Xiaoqiu: The scale of China M2 is very large.my country's economic growth rate is between 6.7-9%, but the average growth rate of M2 is more than 13%, so the size of the currency is getting larger and larger, and it is currently about 240%of the GDP scale.This is a factor, but where will it go in the end?How to configure such a huge stock?It is still a very important issue.It can be seen that our huge M2 stock did not cause CPI to rise, which is very strange.If this phenomenon is placed twenty years ago, malignant inflation will definitely occur, and prices will rise by 30-50%.But this phenomenon has not occurred now. This is an important result of reform and opening up -it allows the asset pools in our economic system to accommodate more monetary assets, including the two major sectors of real estate and financial assets.At the same time, the depreciation of the renminbi is also objectively alleviating the pressure of the currency pool.Of course, the renminbi must not be depreciated without limit, and there must be a limit.7%of the renminbi depreciation is a recent basic bottom line, which is currently around 6.7%-8%, close to 6.8%.

On the one hand, consumption of M2 stock can release the pressure of the asset pool to a certain extent, on the other hand, more importantly, we must find a way to lengthen M2.There is a order of currency in finance. China is from M0 to M4. This is an asset order based on asset liquidity. Real estate must be outside M4 because its liquidity is poor.Of course, the price of real estate has also consumed a part of the pressure, but this should not be the main channel for our pressure to consume the pressure of currency pools.The main channel must be through the development of the capital market, including the bond market and financial markets.Investment must enter the capital market faster, so we must promote financial reform, create more financial products, so that financiers can choose freely and match suitable financing tools according to risks and income.

Li Daokui: According to the current point of view, our stock market accounts for only 14%of the investment, while the United States is 23%, and our stock market is relatively sluggish.

Wu Xiaoqiu: I think the stock market is the most important and most effective channel for M2. It has a better means of bit yuan depreciation, which is better than promoting house prices.To increase the stock, we must first ensure tax cuts and expand the scale of Treasury bonds, including reducing the dependence of enterprises to bank loans.In addition, IPOs must be promoted, which is also a means to increase the stock.Secondly, we must allow some existing stocks to enter the stock market. The rise in capital market prices is far greater than the great depreciation of the economy and the significant increase in house prices.It may have two sides, but it has more benefits.So compared with the three, it is the best choice to make currency gradually entering the capital market.

Li Daokui: So how to guide the stock market to rise?In addition, how should the stock market absorb the stock of our broad currency without promoting the rise in real estate. What should I do?

Wu Xiaoqiu: By expanding M3 to reduce M2.The expansion of M3 actually reduces the pressure of currency and reduces the pressure of rising house prices.Last year's big fluctuations in the stock market had a great impact on our market.Through our experience research, in the face of such a market change that is almost a crisis. Generally speaking, it takes 3 to 10 years to eliminate these negative things like China.Moreover, we do not have the ability to quickly enable the market to step on the roads from the haze, because people’s confidence is not enough, and many system construction has not been completed.M2 gradually enters the capital market.However, it is certain that the market will not have a significant decline in the market in the long run. From the perspective of cycle or currency flow perspective, its upward trend still exists.But this trend is not short -term. For example, this incident happened last year. This incident was abnormal, and the destruction of the entire financial system in China was huge.

Why are Chinese investors more willing to buy GEM?

Li Daokui: Ask a specific question. Our blue-chip stocks have a very low price-earnings ratio, which is much lower than the United States and Europe. Especially bank stocks have returned to below the net limit, only 85-90%of the level. Why?Is the psychological factors of ordinary people, or because of the fundamental principle of finance?

Wu Xiaoqiu: There are two reasons.First, because the social security fund has not fully entered.When investors in the social security fund enter the market, he will rationally choose these blue chip stocks.Because from the perspective of returns, blue chip stocks can reach 5%, and if its dividends reach 50%, up to 10%of returns.However, the country's price-earnings ratio of these institutions is very high, and ordinary commercial investors will be reluctant. If you invest in blue chip stocks, the annual income payments will be only 7-8%, and he wants higher income.But I think that from a long cycle, 8%of the income is very good.Of course, this is also related to the risk preferences of investment, and their preferences have truly growth projects.Obviously, investing in blue chip stocks will not have such a significant growth.The uncertainty of great growth is also very high, but the core of the investment is not to invest in its certainty -to calculate its income in advance -and smart investors generally prefer investment uncertainty, that is, in the future, there willA lot of expected returns, and there may be great risks.Therefore, this also explains the characteristics of high P / E ratio of GEM.And whether in the economic age or the post -industrial era, the great enterprises in China's capital market will definitely bred in the GEM, because the main board is difficult to operate, it is too traditional and warm, and it is difficult to expect. Therefore, investors are more willing to invest in entrepreneurship.plate.We can't say which philosophy is correct.However, once the structure of our investment has improved, investors will be more willing to buy blue -chip stocks instead of GEM.

Li Daokui: The Chinese economy seeks to break through, but there are a lot of money in our currency. How should we break through?How to develop the capital market?In the past ten years, have Chinese stock markets and real estate markets have a alternate relationship?

Wu Xiaoqiu: From the perspective of the cases of various countries, the stock market and the real estate market do have alternateness.Investors will choose better investment categories, and income and risks can reach the balance point of the market at the same time, which is also based on investors' preference for the market.Especially for the financial market is not particularly developed, we will find that CPI does not rise, but its house prices have risen.From this significance, China's financial system is not deepened enough, and China's investment market has poor ability to provide diversified and liquid financial assets.Therefore, we must promote China's financial deepening reform.When financial reform has reached a fairly high level, the diversity of financial products has been greatly rich, and objectively suppressing the rise in housing prices, or market alternation.

Li Daokui: Looking forward to the growth rate of the two in the next two years, do you think the stock market will surpass real estate, or will the real estate turn over the stock market?

Wu Xiaoqiu: If the stock was sold last year, the income would exceed the buying house, but if it was not let go, it would not be sold at 5,000 points, and then it would not work.But from the perspective of our reform, from the perspective of China's trend in the future, I really don't want this will (the development of real estate development exceeds the stock market's willingness) to be realized.

For example, in 1900, a few people bought houses, gold, bonds and stocks, stocks and small and medium -sized enterprises.After a hundred years, by 2000, they compared their respective income. The $ 100 income of buying stocks was about 20 times higher than those who bought bonds in the second place, which was higher than those who bought a house in the third place.30 times, 40 times higher than buying gold.This story contains some objective economic laws, and the income of buying stocks must be the highest.why?Because buying a house, quite a few people buy liabilities. If the yield of buying a house exceeds the yield of buying stocks, this means that the income and liabilities are unbalanced, which meansInvestigation means that you will go bankrupt after financing, and it is unbalanced from the perspective of the company's finances.The reason why the company can make money after paying off the debt is because the income should be greater than the liability, which is the objective financial law.

Li Daokui: Will China be different from the situation in the United States? China violates this law?

Wu Xiaoqiu: The Chinese people like savings very much because they have demonized the speculative market.They will not think that things in the market are their own wealth. The financial market is empty. I don't know if it is gone.No, it is still there.It ’s not that my money becomes currency. It is still there. As long as the country is, the regime is, the law is there, it is still there.

Li Daokui: Putting on theory, personal feelings, and professionalism, we give young people an objective suggestion, what should I do in the next two years.For example, there are 500,000 people today, do you pay a first loan, or buy a stock first, and take it out two years later and then buy a house?

Wu Xiaoqiu: If you buy a house near Tiananmen Gate, don't buy it.If you want to get married and buy a house now, don't buy a house mother -in -law.At this time you have to buy a house, because people's survival is the main, and development is the second place.If you have a lot of money, you already have three or four sets of houses, and you will be stupid to buy a house. It must be my direction -investing in the stock market.If you are living, you still have to buy the first set, even if you go to Hebei, you have to buy it.

The social crowd can be roughly divided into two categories: people who are trying to achieve financial freedom and those who have obtained financial freedom.

There are two roads that realize financial freedom: become people like Buffett, or find people like Buffett.

On the way leading to financial freedom, there are frustrations, falling, loneliness, and taunting, but with the perseverance and peace of mind and remoteness of the golden stone, it may be close to the final victory.No matter how many difficulties are, it is worth working, because this is the happiness we want.

When I was a kid, I often listened to the radio "According to the US" Happiness "magazine, and I rarely heard this" Happiness "magazine later, but often saw the Fortune magazine in the famous American magazines.It took a long time that this "Fortune" was the "Happiness".English Fortune has both wealth and happiness, showing that happiness and wealth are so inseparable.

In the early summer of 2012, I wrote the fifth anniversary of the column of the "Qian Jing" magazine.Let's self -preface.

I have always been considering and worried about writing such a topic, because the word INESTOR in English can be translated as investors, investors, or investors, but in the Chinese context, investors and investors andThere is a huge difference in investors.

After repeated considerations, I think that if a person cares about investment, after experiencing a cyclical test of the market, he can still defeat the broader market and obtain absolute returns, and solve the financial problems in life; at the same time, spread investment knowledge to the publicTo benefit the society and help a lot of society and families make a contribution to the harmony and stability of society through investment in the realm of financial freedom. Such people are called investors.

1. Differential materials must stay for seven years

Since 1993, I have been investing in this bank for the twentieth year. During this period, I started investing in the United States in 1998 and Hong Kong invested in Hong Kong in 2000.For a long time, I have encountered questions such as "how much return this year (or last year)?" After answering many times, the standard answer is: "I have been doing this industry for 20 years, and it is still there."

Those who understand will naturally understand that after seeing the above answers, there is no need to ask more, because anyone who has experienced the capital market in the past two decades knows the ups and downs.

Although there is no eye -catching picture of thousands of miles and bleeding, it is no less than the shocking rivers and lakes that are more than thousands of miles away and eliminate the enemy.The healthy goals run counter to the "bulls" who have lost their freedom and even life.

Unfortunately, only after history, the answer can be revealed. This is the "uncertainty" commonly said.

Since I did not deliberately make investment records in the early days, in the past two decades, I have slightly estimated that my cumulative return on investment was about 200 times, that is, 20,000%(+20,000%).

From the spring of 1993 to the spring of 2012, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose from 1550 points to 2300 points, a cumulative increase of 52%(+52%), rising only 800 points, equivalent to 2%(+2%) of the annual compound interest.In the same period, the inflation rate was lower than the regular deposit interest rate of banks in the same period.

If 80%of the market participants are not even a winning index, it can be seen that choosing securities investment as a profession in the past two decades is not a good choice.

In the past few years, he has been invited to write columns for the Qian Jing magazine. As of the real simulation portfolio of the May issue as of May, the cumulative yield of the column in the past five years (April 2007 ~ April 2012) was 112.92%(+112.92%), While the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 32.20%(-32.20%).

Due to the fixedness of magazines, this "dance with handcuffs" is more practical. For example, our reality children's financial and business education accounts have accumulated in the past two years (April 2010 ~ April 2012)The return rate was 63.2%(+63.2%), while the return rate of the magazine column in the same period was only 19.8%(+19.8%).

Generally, the investment level of only unilateral bull markets or bear markets is insufficient. It is better to have a record of the complete cycle.It happened to be organized in May in May. From May 2005 to the end of April 2012, it was seven years old. During the five years, the bear market and two years of bull markets have experienced the market cycle of "bear -cow -bear". The performance is as follows:

During the above seven years, the whole world suffered a heavy blow from volcanic outbreaks, tsunami, earthquake, blizzard, nuclear leakage, drought, flood, SARS, financial crisis and other non -human situations, and after experiencing crazy, panic, fear, despair and other non -human situations, every time every time was everywhere, every time, every time, every time, the original.A 1 million final growth was 7.03 million, which was equivalent to+32%of the annual compound interest, and the cumulative return rate was+603%.+28.89 %%.

This is just a rough reflection. Due to the different periods of investment, the different market allocation, and the different degrees of understanding of the investment philosophy and the tacit understanding, the result is not completely consistent.Daily asset management work major challenges.

The earliest reading about investment was "OneuponWallStreet" bought by my father. The author is the American legendary fund manager Peter Link. He published in 1990 Economic Daily Press, with a price of 4.90 yuan.After more than two decades of time and space, the pink shepherd book is still miraculously standing on my bookshelf.

When I read it, I ca n’t see a lot of things in it. What I was most impressed was that Lin Qi bought the first stock called Feihu Airlines. It rose from 7 US dollars to $ 32, which solved the problem of tuition.Proudly wrote: "It can be said that I finished my" scholarship "by Flying Tiger's" Scholarship ".Unexpectedly, only eight years later, I had almost the same experience as Lin Qi.

Second, the stock market provided by the United States scholarship

In contrast to the atmosphere of scrambling to apply for a civil servant today, the society was popular in the society 20 years ago. Many hot -blooded young people resigned from the public office to pursue their ideals. In 1991, I also joined the army of "100,000 talents to go to Hainan".

When I arrived at Haikou of Coconut Wind Haiyun, I met a person who was not tall and wearing glasses, and the scholar looked like the Book of Changes. He was called Pan Shiyi -the later chairman of SOHO China.Lao Pan is good at digital and market, and his mouth is excellent. He is good at making friends. He walks on the street with him. He often meets a acquaintance in three or five minutes.

Later, Lao Pan recommended a young man with glasses. He was a graduate student of the National People's Congress. At that time, the graduate student was still very scarce.Keeping the old machine, sitting in a simple cold chair in the yard, and talking about the future of China, he is called Yi Xiaodi. He is now the chairman of Sunshine 100.

Later, I saw the ideal and plump Feng Lun (the chairman of the board of directors of Wantong), and Wang Gongquan, who had deep eyes (the famous venture capital leader in the future and the more famous "elopement emperor" in 2011).In short, at that time, they had no house and no money. They were not familiar with where the future was. Some were only youth, enthusiasm and ideals, but young people were just temporary "poverty", but they were not "poor".Although there is no money, they are far away. In the next 20 years, they will interpret ideals into reality.

The interaction with the bloody youth has almost no improvement in my later investment level, because at that time, the Chinese stock market was only limited to Shenzhen and Shanghai, and people in other places rarely understood.

The first enlightenment should be to listen to Zhang Zhiping, chairman of Hainan Securities at that time, to talk about stocks, and he later worked in the China Securities Regulatory Commission.At that time, the book that was impressed by the stock was the "Shenzhen Stock Market" written by Water Transport, but he would not be famous for financial literature in the future. After a long time, he learned that his representative works include "The Bandit of Wulong Mountain".

The actual entering the stock market should be in 1993, and the large -scale contact of the stock market at that time was basically at that time, because the Tianlong and Tianqiao of Beijing were finally on the market at that time.At first, the actual reasons are the same as everyone. It can make money in the stock market. It does not require privileges, no relationship, no gift giving, not to give gifts. It is really good.Almost everyone can enter the stock market without hindrance.

Many years later, I gradually realized that it was the "seemingly low threshold" of the stock market that actually harmed many people and made many people go forward and obsessed. In this regard, the stock market is similar to the casino.The person who is still mixed with the market in the market is the gambler. The little gambling is overwhelming. If you want to get financial success through gambling, it is tantamount to seeking fish.

The initial account opening was in the business department of Article 40 of Huaxia Securities. One of the common leaders at that time was Fan Yonghong (the general manager of the Huaxia Fund), and the busy famous stock critic Zhao Xiaoyun.The people of the rivers and lakes -the surname Wang Mingya.

It was not a good time to enter the market that year. In the spring of 1993, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index reached 1500 points. The 2005 Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was 998 points apart from 12 years.Essence

At that time, the whole society was exploring. In fact, everyone did not understand why the stock rose and declined, so all the seemingly theory today can even be said to be active in the media and market wells.It will be found that the words of Zhen Zhen were more delusional and judging today.

After the stock market reached 1,500 points in the spring of 1993, it fell tragicly to 300 points the following year, which was almost harsh.At this stage from 1993 to 1995, I am in the stage of "playing and playing" like many people now. There is not much money. It is not happy to fall, but it will not jump off the building; I am excited and I can't solve the problem.

Like many young people, I have accumulated the capital of the principal through serious work, and at the same time, I continue to be hungry and thirsty.

In the days when the Internet has not yet appeared, the acquisition cost of text information is much higher than today. Going to Xinhua Bookstore to read books is often reluctant to buy. In order to save 2 cents for deposit on bicycles, you need to park your car.The place where money is returned to the bookstore, but fortunately, the book was opened at that time.

Even if you go to the library, you basically read a book, and you are reluctant to walk back from the bookshelf back. This has gradually developed the habit of reading quickly.

This kind of dark exploration disappeared in 1995, and the text of Buffett appeared in my life for the first time. It was like a bright sun shot in the black house, and the ship of the vast night found the beacon of the road.

This book was the later "Buffett's Road" (also translated as "The Word of the King of the Stock"). Investment concepts such as "buying stocks are buying companies", "good companies, good prices" and other investment philosophy are well known to everyone, but at that time, it was simply simply it was simply simply.The sound of the sky is unheard of.

Today, Buffett's books occupy more than 100 bookshelves, both Chinese and English.After many years, Buffett's scenery was incorporated into the "Buffett, happy birthday!"In a article.

With the spiritual light from Buffett's investment ideas, all sowing all sowed in the stock market in early 1996, in the letter to friends, wrote: "Almost all funds were invested before the Spring Festival.Can".

In the following two years, the method of "buying and holding" was adopted, and only two stocks were held, namely Changhong and Xinghua, and obtained about ten times the return.Times.This experience was published in the "Financial Times" series in the "Communication of Stock Investment" at the time, so that after more than ten years, some people found me.

In early 1996, static data showed that even if the stock price did not rise, Changhong's dividend rate could reach 10%, and the annual deposit interest rate at that time was 10.98%.After 20 months, Changhong's stock price rose more than ten times. After that, I decided to go to the United States to study. It can be said that I read the American MBA in the United States with Changhong's "scholarship".

How to win 10,000 miles away from the time of far away from far away from the ocean, no Internet information, and no online transactions, this is an unprecedented challenge.

Third, 40 times the two years after the crisis

In 1997, the "China Business Daily" happened to be published in the same edition as a report on Buffett's photos. I briefly translated it for excitement and sent a copy to the distant American Omaha.Soon after receiving the thank you letter from his office, I also gave me a desire to "have a day to see Buffett in one day".

In the exotic country where people and land are sparse, they regain English to deal with TOEFL and GMAT, until the MBA of the University of St.I believe that many seeds that may become a great investor have been stifled under the rearrassment of the early life cost of life.

The only source of financial sources is existing capital and income from investment or income. The US market needs to be familiar with, and the main investment is still in the country.

At that time, the Asian financial turmoil had intensified, and countless wealth on the market died with the wind, and to endure the great floods that had not encountered in the following year.In short, the blow is connected to the blow, like a drowning person, and whenever he wants to breathe, he is poured into a bruce of muddy water.This is a day when there is no day or night, anxiety, only the day when successful, not allowing failure.

The crisis is in danger. In the letter to domestic friends in 1998, it was mentioned: "Buy Vanke B at the current price, even if its stock price does not rise, dividends have 20%of the income."However, there was no online transaction at that time, and B shares were not even telephone. They sent people to place orders every day. The market was extremely depressed. Sometimes there were no transactions in the number of days, because the transaction volume was zero.

The Internet at that time was very limited. In order to obtain the information of the domestic capital market, I spent a high price in Chinese bookstores in Los Angeles to subscribe to the Shanghai Securities News at a high price.

This is probably incredible for the "fried" stocks who have stared every day. Everyone usually thinks that the stock market is changing rapidly and the opportunity is fleeting.The performance of the A -share investment has doubled, and the investment targets include Dongda Apai, Tongfang, etc.

In the fall of 2001, it was scammed in the A -share market and was severely hit.At the same time, it was found that the price of many H -shares in Hong Kong was far lower than that of A shares, so it was also the beginning of our Hong Kong stock investment.

I concluded in my letter to investors in the fall of 2001: "This is the first time I have seen the background (A -share) market outlook since 1996." I did not expect that we were lucky enoughStock bear market.

After moving to Hong Kong, I bought a series of stocks with high dividends, including PetroChina, which was later in Buffett. At that time, more than one Hong Kong dollars per share.It doesn't matter.

By the way, in the fall of 2007, we repeated a large A -share retreat in the fall of 2001. Because of the consideration of the overestimation of A shares, the price of the same stock is far lower than the A -share market in the international market.The investment letter named "Farewell to Goodbye", so all A shares were emptied around September 2007 and moved overseas.But this time was not as lucky this time, caught up with the 2008 financial crisis that swept the world.

This is the first time that we have collapsed in all markets. In the past, in the past, the United States was okay when the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, the collapse of American technology stocks in 2001, China was okay, and the United States was okay when China SARS was rampant in 2003. In 2008, it wasAll markets collapsed, and its strength was only comparable to that economic crisis in 1929.

Compared to Buffett Teacher Graham's severe blow in 1929, it took seven years to recover. We recaptured all losses in 2009 and were lucky.

In 2001, the United States was attacked by "9? 11", and the long -established technology stock bubble began to crash. Like the sharp blade falling in the sky, all people who dared to take over halfway were dripping.It fell beyond recognition, shrinking by more than 90%.China ’s online stocks, Sina, Sohu, and Netease, which took the last bus, did not escape from doom. Sina fell from 55 US dollars to $ 1, and NetEase fell to 0.60 US dollars.Yuan.

If you think about it, if your life's life fell by 99%, he fell half of it.At this time, some of the courageous people began to attack. The most famous of which was Duan Yongping. After receiving the light of Buffett's investment concept, he went to invest in NetEase and finally earned more than 100 times, which laid the greatest classic investment in his life.

During this period, I invested in Sina and Sohu, and obtained about 40 times the return in the following two years. This history was later recorded in an article entitled "Let Qian Work Practice".But I saw too much fierce, and I didn't dare to do my best this time. The mood was no longer the heroic pleasure of "desert sand is like snow, and Yanshan Yueyue".

This year, I finally realized a long -awaited dream -to see Buffett.Buffett said, "You may be my first shareholder from Beijing."

After many years, I amazed with Buffett and Munger's group photo and hanging in the office. This three -person photo was cut into two people when it was adopted for the first time by the media six years ago.Go, because "who is this old man"?

Only in foreign countries can I feel that I am buried in the heart and the nostalgia of the motherland.When I flew back to the Capital Airport for the first time in a few years, when I saw the land of the motherland through the dazzling window, my ears were full of the melody of the song "My Motherland": "This is our motherland, I gave birth to me to raise me.place".I couldn't help crying and said in my heart, "The motherland, I will never leave you anymore."

During this period, the significance of financial freedom was recognized to national dignity, national unity, and family harmony, and mostly related to the economic foundation.Money is no longer just money. It is the crystallization of the past youth, struggle and sweat, hard work and wisdom. It is the source of happiness in the future and the source of family harmony.Munger said: Wisdom people can use money to get happiness.

In 2004, it was the fourth year of the decline in A shares. In the heavy snowfall of Vancouver, I wrote to domestic investors in a strong snowstorm, the title was "Seasoning Season".

Fourth, the only beautiful ending of wealth managers

Actually, as early as 1996, he did not intend to contact an industry called investment management (or asset management, wealth management) in the future.When investing as a profession, the separation of investors and investment managers occur.

The true significance of investment is to optimize the allocation of social resources. Through the development of investment enterprises, create employment opportunities for society, increase taxes for the country, provide satisfactory products or services to the public, and maximize value for investors.

When investors have failed to manage investment in person, they face double losses: one loss of money, two losses youth.

The significance of investment management is that even without considering profit and loss, it saves youth for investors, giving them the opportunity to complete what should be done, good at doing, and like to do, and in line with the laws of social division of labor.

In the autumn of 2001, it was believed that the A shares were specifically returned from abroad to dissolve the entrustment of everyone.In the era when the call machine was upgraded to a mobile phone that year, after three years, some people could not be contacted, and the funds that turned over to the Lord will be returned.

This deeds that are completely opposite to the "fleeing of money" circulating in the society actually left the unexpected good reputation for me in the future, and even more believed that "the society needs good people."And it takes time to prove this. It takes many years to establish a good reputation. If it does not work for five years, it will be proved for five years.With a lifetime, there are no shortcuts.

In order to properly arrange the responsibilities, I even wrote the first will of life at the age of 29, which surprised and impressed many people.

"As far as the use of funds is concerned, I care more about your money than yourself."This is what I say to investors in 2004, but this does not indicate that there is no loss in investment in specific historical stages.

In fact, while helping a family to achieve the realm of financial freedom, there are also cases of failure, and the reason for the failure is only one thing in the end: it does not work in accordance with the rules.

After paying the cost of youth and capital, we finally summarized the working principle of the 16 -character work to increase the probability of increasing the chance of winning: "conceptual identity, appropriate funds, smooth communication, and tacit understanding."

Generally speaking, investment knowledge, experience, and so on only account for one -third of the successful investment factors. Many factors other than investment, such as toughness, perseverance, the nature of funds, investment planning, communication ability, etc.Factors that have nothing to do with investment may determine the final investment fate.

My own investment style can be summarized as Shouzheng.It is about that it can grow on the basis of value for money. If it is "keeping positive", it may be stable and more than that, which is "surprisingly" that it may be too risky and the risk is too great.However, any method and system are coexisting and disadvantaged, and there is no perfect world.

In the choice of investment objects, we hope that "good enterprises and good prices", that is, can obtain excellent operations at the right price.As for what is an excellent enterprise and a suitable price, each investor has its own interpretation, just like a thousand readers of "Dream of Red Mansions", there will be a thousand different Lin Daiyu.

It must be acknowledged that I am not good at it, such as judging the trend of the dealer's institution, such as judging the short -term trend trend, etc. We never buy ST stocks, and we have not even opened the GEM account so far.

The conditions we like at least include: 1. Profit; 2. Sustainable profitability; 3. Third, growing sustainable profit.The more important indicators include net interest rates, ROE, PE, PEG, etc., as well as the quality of managers.But reality is always more complicated than books, and we often look at it.

In actual operations, the method of holding positions and centralized investment is usually adopted to continuously select the objects with better performance prices according to market changes.This method is facing two major risks while having advantages.

Holding positions are usually manifested as heavy warehouses or full warehouses. This behavior stems from the inspiration of the most successful stratum in reality.There are usually only one type of people in the Forbes Wealth Ranking -the holders of outstanding companies.

Observing the most successful class in finance, they will find that successful entrepreneurs usually choose to adhere to their economic difficulties. They rarely have an attitude such as "stop loss first when the economy is not good, and wait for it".Most of them are the characteristics of using liabilities, that is, financial leverage.

Concentrated investment is an important means for achieving investment goals, otherwise, only one percent of capital is only one percent of capital, even if it has grasped ten times the stock, it is not helpful.Understanding the concentrated investment of the object is more secure than the decentralized investment in unknown.

The risk of holding positions is to encounter systemic risks. For example, in the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, and the 2008 global financial crisis, it caused serious negative effects.Corresponding to this systemic risk is suitable people and suitable funds, not the so -called "stop loss".

In my investment system, there is no usual concept of stop loss based on stock price changes, because it is impossible to recognize what 10 yuan is worthwhile, and it will be sold to 7 yuan.

As early as 1997, published in the "Financial Times" article proposed three reasons for selling their own stocks: the quality of the target company worsening, valuation, and better choices.It has not changed for many years.The risk of centralized investment is that the investment target is not right, and the means of controlling this risk is hard work. There is no other law.

The clues of investment targets are usually derived from the details of reading and life.My main working method is to read, thanks to the huge convenience brought by the Internet.A large number of reading can be compared horizontally and vertical to go to Wu Cunjing and go to pseudo -pseudo. Lincoln once said: "No one can deceive everyone at all times."

The habit of reading for a long time makes me feel that reading words can even get more useful information than I met in person.Love life should also be a way to discover good goals. The clues of some investment objects are completely caused by the details of life. For example, Tan Tianzhong determines Baidu, watching Feng Xiaogang's film investment Zhonglian Zhongke, and the street strolling and found Tan Carpenter.The investment process is generally the process of collecting, researching, judging, execution, and patience, and then repeat.My whole time is basically in this constant reading and love.

I also often have a defamation of the behavior of "cubs selling grandfathers and not pain", and it has almost become an occupational disease.In addition to or participating in some shareholders' meetings, I rarely do so -called field surveys, which is different from that many institutions like to spend huge sums of money to conduct field investigations on the spot.

The only exception is a Canadian financial company invested in the Hong Kong market. Its history span three centuries and covers banks, investment, and insurance business. In order to understand the company, I even applied for a period of time.

In the process of investment, I am not afraid to meet people who do not understand investment. The most afraid of people who know half -believe but always have ideas.This semi -doubtful nature often evolves into a full letter (or the risk that causes high points to enter the market), and has evolved into a full suspicious (or regret that causes the bottom to clear the position).

Finding the right investment method or the appropriate manager is a method of successful investment.However, in the process of investment, no matter how much we do, we are only the probability of increasing the chance of winning, but we cannot eliminate risks.

In the capital market secondary market, investors who can go through more than fifteen years or not, there should be all people, they are all hone "trainers".The money was refined, and the public funds from the public funds were made with others' money.

The fledgling young people suddenly had the billions of billions of raised legitimately raised even more even more than knowing the funds of investors. They refined the fixed management fee and became a big guy.Look at it.

Regardless of public funds or hedge funds, as wealth managers, they should be a combination of responsibilities and capabilities. Their final beautiful ending is only one: after the experience cycle, they defeat the broader market and achieve absolute profit.It would be better if the problem can be solved.The successful investment of this "live up to the coming" is as successful as all successful, which is fascinating because of scarcity.

5. Benefits of faith

I originally wrote one or two annual investment reviews to investors every year. I often encounter investment questions that need to be answered on weekdays. There are many overlap. In order to improve the efficiency, I gradually answered them in an article.The tradition of the article is the "Seasoning Season" in 2004, "Settlement of Seeee" in the autumn of 2007, "The Farming of the People in the People" in 2008, "The Staff in the Dark Night", "Professional Victory of Professional Victory"And the World Unsuccessful "and so on.

The spread of this concept inadvertently plays the role of investor education. In the future economic crisis, it has played a firm effect. The benefit of belief is that it can make people live a difficult time.

October in Jinqiu is the entire 100 issue of the "Qian Jing" magazine. During this period, I have been intertwined with their youth and moon for more than five years.

The original intention of writing the "Qian Jing" column is to let people who are desperate for investment know that without inside the inside, do not listen to the black mouth, do not listen to the black mouth, do not follow the dealer, or even "fry" stocks every day, it is also the possibility of successful investment.I planned to write only for one year, and it was full of the global financial crisis in 2008, so I gritted my teeth and persisted until now. I didn't think it was gradually getting some readers.

Although I have always had the writing habit of "the article is together, and the song and poetry are done for things", at the end of the 2007 bull market, it should be written that this monthly column is an extremely wrong decision. This "ox tail tail"The decision at all times made me regret it in the future, and my own experience was miserable. I also showed this misery to people.This once again proves that no one can predict the market, and I am no exception.Fortunately, there is enough time to give me a chance to prove that in the long run, we don't need to win by luck.

The bit or less in life has become a text material. To some extent records what they see and hear, they are so popular that I am called "the best person to write articles in the investment community".Even after publishing "The First Best Not Stocks", some people think that I am literary and artistic, not investors.

I often review the past writing. Originally, I was afraid of writing and repeated content, but found that some articles were really pleasing to the eye. It was as if I accidentally read the papers when I read MBA in the United States more than ten years ago.In my heart, I rose my fantasy: "Is this time I wrote it in myself!"

The most meaningful is "Qinhuai River in Pagang", "Color Economist", "Finding Osmanthus Scenery in Autumn", "The Objectives of Investment", "Buffett, Happy Birthday", and has good literary and concepts.

For example, in the article "Find a person like Tiannan", the depiction of spring: "In April of Vancouver, the mountain is still snow -capped on the mountain, but the cherry blossoms are blooming in the park.The lights are colorful, and the petals are dancing with the wind, falling on the shoulders, hair, and falling on my arms. "

As for the "Fifteen Years 10 million", which is widely concerned, it should be inadvertently in line with the wishes of many people's hearts, but the realization of this goal needs to be fully implemented after understanding and the spirit of "unity of knowledge and action".Not easy.

I especially like the second anniversary of the column in April 2009. "Someone boast of my article". The potential meaning is that in addition to the good article, we actually invest better.Remember clearly that during the entire writing process, the body trembled with excitement as if burning, so that the older generation of writers said, "If you want to touch the reader, you need to move himself".

This article still feels very fresh. One of them "Spring is here. Last year's cherry blossoms bloom again. There is a large cherry tree outside the window, and a bunch of pink flowers bloom., With a clear blue sky background, the fresh grass that has just been cut off the smell of fresh grass. "It was a letter from the relatives written to Beijing when he overseas.

At that time, it was the spring of Vancouver. I re -swimming the old place again not long ago. Sitting in front of the same grassland, the season of cherry blossoms has passed, and the eyes are still green.Old friends are opposite, and still remember the dialogue in April 2009. "After three years, in April 2012, it is estimated that the financial crisis should pass."The length and intensity of the crisis.

As we said, "Even if our spirit can cross the confusion in front of us, we can see the future beauty of the future. Our heavy body still has to stay at the moment of time and space, and after the necessary hardships."

This October is also the fifth anniversary of the financial crisis. From October 2007, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index's 6,100 points have fallen to 2100 points today, and the cumulative fell two -thirds, and the market value has shrunk by 7 trillion.In contrast, the birthplace of the crisis in this round of crisis, its stock market has almost fully restored after experiencing the crisis, and the contrast between this is indeed thought -provoking.

Over the past five years, I have seen too many lives and deaths, and the misery of the media has continued to jump into the eye.Facing the market of Xiao Suo Lingluo, who knows whether it is full of chicken feathers or gold?Thinking of the famous saying in MacArthur's famous speech: The veterans are not dead, but they are just withered.(Oldsoldiersneverdie. TheyjustFadeaway.) I want to say: Investment is not dead, but it is just withering.(Investorsneverdie. TheyjustFadeaway.) Even if it was the past five years in the past, people saw that the desert flower was in full bloom.

The only regret is that while it is possible to prove that everyone has achieved financial freedom, it has not reminded much of the difficulties and cruelty during the period.

Do not expect every effort to have a positive return, read notes more than ten years ago, see the above paragraph: "The seeds we broadcast today, on the future road, if there can be 80%germination, 60%bloom, it can bloom, and 60%flowers.As a result, our happiness is enough. "

6. The strategy and road of successful investment

Living in a worry -free life is the pursuit of most people, and this realm is called "Financialfreedom".What we have seen and heard for many years tells us: If people have a wealthy, they are usually happier.

Charlie `Munger said: Smart people can use money to get happiness.Cao Renchao said: "85%of happiness can be obtained with money."Sincerity!

If the state of financial freedom does not have the shade of the predecessors, it usually needs to be established and take care of it.Social crowds can be roughly divided into two categories: people who are going to success and those who have been successful are not the poor and rich people who often say.Those who are going to success, that is, those who have not yet reached the realm of financial freedom; those who have "successful" are those who have obtained financial freedom.

The former is represented by the workplace white -collar "Durala". It should be paid to their own work, and can achieve the state of financial freedom through the implementation of appropriate financial planning. This stage can be completed with about three economic cycles.Strategic strategies need to focus on proper "concentration", and concentration of firepower may be possible to turn over.Please refer to the article "The difference between a battle and war".

The latter is represented by successful entrepreneurs, and the goal should be the preservation and value -added of wealth, because it is not uncommon for the example from "having" to "no". At this stage, the strategy of asset allocation should be properly "dispersed."

The former often gives up because the goal is too far away; the latter often misses the opportunity because he is too confident.These two types of people may be exchanged in reality.

For those who think that the goal is too far away, we will break down the goal and call the initial stage of financial freedom as "financial health".It is believed that a general family can achieve the goal of financial freedom through a fifteen years of implementation planning.If you are lucky, time may be shortened, but your luck is not within the scope of effort.See the article "10 million years".

The standard of financial health is one person or family, and its property income has reached or exceeded its daily work.If a person earns 8,000 yuan per month, one day, even if you lie at home, you will have 10,000 yuan per month.

This feeling of peace of mind is like if you want to drink a glass of water with a whole bucket of water and put it next to it; if you want to drive out, the fuel tank is full.I have not yet encountered people who spend time because they have property income.On the contrary, as far as you see, no successful person is not hardworking, and no successful person does not have to think carefully.

There is a tradition of "shame to talk about money" in Chinese culture, but at the same time, there is also an ancient training of "the gentleman loves the money".For wealth construction and preservation, the "Tao" we discuss here is investment.

Investment can also cover the creation of enterprises, real estate transactions, antique collection, PE, VC, securities market, etc. In view of the uniqueness of enterprises, the high intensity requirements of PE and VC on social relations, the professionalism of antique collection, and the poor real estate transactions are poorThe liquidity, our focus eventually fell in the second -level market, which is usually the stock market.

But these do not reject each other, they are organically crossed together in life.The change of potential, randomly and "change" is the only unchanged.

Nowadays, the word wealth management has been deeply rooted in people's hearts, but the public rarely peek into the whole picture.Financial management is actually composed of four parts: banks, insurance, investment, taxes.The core of the entire financial management is: income increase, open source and throttling.

In these four parts, as far as the fundamental goal is concerned, the banking business provides convenience. The insurance provides guarantees. The tax refers to the throttling.Factors, the most difficult and most risk part.

There are only two roads for investment success: one is to be people like Buffett; the other is to find people like Buffett.According to the principle of division of labor, the vast majority of people do not have to do it.

The seeds of pursuit of financial freedom are actually deep in everyone's hearts.In the process of investment, there may be frustration, falling, or loneliness, or taunting, with the perseverance of gold and stone, and the mentality of quietness and tranquility may be close to the final victory.No matter how many difficulties are, it is worth working, because this is the happiness we want.

Life is so fast that the story is not over, because we are all on the road, and we hope that you will be there in another 20 years!

According to the interpretation of the Senior Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, it is of great significance for manufacturing and non -manufacturing. It shows that my country's manufacturing production and market demand will be heated, the price continues to rise, further stimulating production, and the company's expectations will continue to get better. The expansion is accelerated. 

The National Bureau of Statistics announced in October in October (PMI) and non -manufacturing business activity indexes in October, respectively, 51.2%and 54.0%, respectively, an increase of 0.8 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.It shows that the manufacturing index has risen significantly, the non -manufacturing industry has maintained an expansion, and the growth rate continues to accelerate (the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on November 1).

It can be seen from the manufacturing and non -manufacturing index announced by the National Bureau of Statistics that the trend of economic warming is significantly better than expected: on the one hand, the five major classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing industry are improving.The production index, the new order index, and the supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, respectively, 53.3%, 52.8%, and 50.2%, respectively, which is 0.5 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.Maintaining rapid production, growth rate of market demand and the time for delivery of raw material suppliers.Although the employee indexes and raw material inventory indexs are still below the critical point of 48.8%and 48.1%, respectively, 0.2 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points increased from the previous month, which shows that the decline in the amount of work of the enterprise continues to narrow and the main raw material inventory.The scale of contraction is reduced.

On the other hand, the six classification indicators that constitute the non -manufacturing industry are located above the critical point index and continue to be prosperous.According to data, the business activities index, the new order index, the investment price index, the sales price index, the employee index, and the business activities expectation index are 52.6%, 50.9%, 53.7%, 51.5%, 50.0%, and 60.6%, respectively; Except for employees' index and business activities, the expectation index has declined, which has a large increase than last month, which shows that the non -manufacturing industry continues to be stable and progressive, and the market demand continues to warm up.The overall level of investment in production and operation has continued to rise, the increase has increased significantly, and the overall level of sales prices continues to rise. Non -manufacturing enterprises have continued to be optimistic about market development expectations from market development.

According to the interpretation of the Senior Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, it is of great significance for manufacturing and non -manufacturing. It shows that my country's manufacturing production and market demand will be heated, the price continues to rise, further stimulating production, and the company's expectations will continue to get better. The expansion is accelerated.At the same time, it indicates that the accelerated gathering of new kinetic energy and the continuous optimization of the structure; the supply -side reform has made positive progress, and the production and operation status of some traditional industries has improved.

This positive change tendency is happy to have the tendency to change in the manufacturing and non -manufacturing industry, but it must not be complacent and ignore the problems behind it. These problems are mainly manifested in four aspects:

First, due to the weak global economic recovery, the import and export situation is still severe, and the promotion of internal and external demand should be realized.According to the published data, the new export order indexes and import indexes were 49.2%and 49.9%, respectively, all under the boundary point.It shows that it is currently affected by the continuous weakness of the world economy and the unscrupulous demand for domestic consumption. The import and exports are still in a downturn. Governments at all levels and related economic functional departments should keep their minds calm, grasp the economic situation correctly, and introduce more preferential policies to motivate import and export trade enterprisesExpand production and operation, implement more active consumption plans in China to boost domestic consumption demand, and help promote the new export order index and import indexes to return to the critical point as soon as possible, creating a loose environment for stimulating the economy.

Second, the tension of corporate funds has not been fundamentally resolved, and it is still necessary to have a hard recruitment for enterprises.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 40 % of the proportion of enterprises reflecting capital tensions and insufficient market demand, especially small and small enterprises' reflection of funding tensions have intensified.This shows that my country ’s economic and financial environment is conducive to manufacturing as the core, and it is not formed by the fact that financial and other factors such as finance still have not tilted to the real economy; it also shows that the current economic recovery may be driven by real estate. These require all levels. The government and functional departments have paid attention to the correct research and judgment of the economic and financial situation, and adopted measures to prevent excessive funds from gathering in the fields of real estate and other fields to advance industrial bubbles, further guiding social funds to "get rid of reality", and laid the foundation for economic stability.In particular, in the process of adjusting the bottom of the economic L, policies such as tax cuts, relaxation of control, protecting property rights, encouraging innovation, and dilapidated new establishment are needed to allow corporate and residents' micro -subjects to rest.

Third, small and medium -sized enterprises are still operating disadvantages, and they must implement the "double innovation" economic strategy.From the data of the Bureau of Statistics, although the PMI of small and small enterprises has recovered significantly, it is still under the critical point.In terms of the scale of the enterprise, the large enterprise PMI is 52.5%, which is 0.1 percentage points slightly than the previous month.There is a possibility of further expansion.This shows that the difficulty of small and medium -sized enterprises represented by private capital has not broken the situation, and some administrative and institutional obstacles still become the "block tiger" on the road of development; especially the "door" business concept of the financial sector has not changed.Enterprises obtain financial resources at an absolute disadvantage.Therefore, governments and functional departments at all levels should determine the determination of the strong men to break their wrists, resolutely break the old system and mechanism, further emancipate their minds, change their concepts, and implement support for small and medium -sized enterprises in their important strategies in promoting economic growth, creating fair operation competition competitionThe environment allows the "double innovation" economic strategy to land, take root, flowers and results.

Fourth, de -production capacity, deleveraging, and destocking still face large pressure, and supply -side reforms need to spare no effort.At present, the changes in the stability and recovery of the manufacturing and non -manufacturing industries, thanks to the "three, one, one reduction and one supplement" determined by economic work this year; and at present, there are some adversity tendencies, that is, some local governments are continuing to promote de -capacity for de -capacity.In the process of destocking, the determination is shaken due to the heating of market demand. If this trend of thought recovers, this year and the future, the manufacturing and non -manufacturing indexes have a danger of decline.In this regard, governments and functional departments at all levels should seize the favorable opportunities of the market recovery and the recovery of corporate confidence, increase the structural reform of the supply side, put the cost reduction in prominent positions, consolidate the production and operation of enterprises and consolidate the production and operation of enterprises andInvestment confidence will fundamentally improve the supply environment of the enterprise and promote the continuous improvement of the overall efficiency and efficiency of the enterprise.At the same time, the old roads that are stimulated by traditional industrial investment should be changed, and some gradual and steady growth measures should be implemented in the new economy and new development directions, providing inexhaustible motivation for the Chinese economy to complete the low and extensive business pattern.

Li Daxiao, the chief economist of British Securities, published an article in "Kung Fu Finance". A shares improved in economic data. After the weekly line, there were eight signs of the stock market.

Signs 1: Economic data is good.In October, PMI reached 51.2%, and the growth of GDP in China reached 6.7%for three consecutive quarters.The trend of economic data has brought very strong support to the entire stock market.In the third quarter, the performance of listed companies is also getting better, and it may change from downward trends to rising trends.

According to the data of the National Economic Operations in the first three quarters of 2016 issued by the National Bureau of Statistics in October: In the first three quarters of 2016, the GDP was 52997.1 billion yuan, which was calculated at comparable prices, a year -on -year increase of 6.7%.In the quarter, the first quarter increased by 6.7%year -on -year, 6.7%in the second quarter, and 6.7%in the third quarter.In terms of industries, the added value of the first industry was 4066.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%year -on -year; the value -added of the second industry was 20941.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 27989 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%.In the first half of 2016, the GDP was 34063.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7%year -on -year.

Signs 2: Blue chip stocks have begun to rise.The rising trend of blue chip stocks has provided a very strong support for the slow cow of the Chinese stock market.If it is a junk stock, the Black five rises, the market is not so reliable; but the blue chip stock rises, and the entire market will become very solid.Because blue chip stocks are the focus of one by one, one by one goes up one by one, so it is very solid.

Signs 3: Lianyang around.From June 2015 to the present, the Shanghai Index Week K Line first appeared four weeks of Lianyang for the first time, bringing great confidence and strong support to the bulls.

Significance 4: The entire market breaks through the year.This also laid a very strong foundation for confidence.

Signs 5: During the process of Lianyang around, the market transaction volume is mildly enlarged, and more a week, bringing a steady stream of reinforcements to the market.

Signs 6: Since 2638 points, the market has unknowingly reached 503 points instead of 503 points.If it is negative 503 points, the market is a slow bear. If it is 503 points, it is a slow cow.Usually increased by 15%-20%, which can be defined as a bull market.Now the market has risen by 19%, providing a very strong support for Slow Cow.

Signs 7: The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index reached a new high in ten months.

Last Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a low -opening trend.In the morning, the synthesis composite index opened by 0.19%, and then showed a trend of slow vibration.Especially in the afternoon, blue -chip stocks such as brokerage firms and railway infrastructure collectively made a collective force to drive the Shanghai Composite Index soaring.On the market, the Shanghai Composite Index was touched to 3140.93 points, a new high in the past ten months.

Signs eight: Golden fork.When a very important indicator moving average appears in a golden fork, the entire market should have a strong support from a technical perspective.

In summary, Li Daxiao firmly believes that China's stock market has entered an optimistic stage. The multi -market, multi -army and multi -party troops will usher in victory.

rise!rise!rise!It is the recent running trajectory of the black system.After three years of bear market, the black line broke out in silence.From the beginning of the year to today (November 7), the thread increased by 61.4%, power coal increased by 117.8%, and coke coal increased by 167.5%, and coke increased by 210.3%.At the same time, the exchanges increase the power coal fees twice.In this market environment with rising prices and strict supervision, where will the "black system" go from?Today's coking coal 1701 contract increased by 9.97%, an increase of 137.5 yuan/ton, and closed at 1516 yuan/ton.Qihe.com connected Cheng Binghong, Zhejiang Business Futures Analyst, to analyze the viewing coal and the next trend for investors.

Coking coal 1701 contract trend

Qihe.com 1,Last week, the coking coal 1701 contract has gone through a week of finishing, which has made many investors speculate whether the black rise is already in the end.However, today's coke coal has reached a record high with nearly 10%of the increase. Is the fundamentals that support the rise in coke coal continuously fermenting?

Cheng Binghong:Last week, the steel market rose, and the profit of the steel mills has strengthened. As of this week, the coking coal inventory of the sample steel mill has decreased again. The average number of days of coking coal inventory in large and medium -sized steel plants in China can still be at a historical low of 9 days.The demand is still strong; last week, independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory can be reduced again, and coke enterprises are in the preparation stage of winter storage, and the demand is still strong; overall demand is supported by coking coal prices.

In addition, the price of auto transportation has soared, and the tension of train skin has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the coke coking market. Especially in the Shanxi region, the fire transportation vehicle leather plan is very tight, resulting in the continued decrease in the arrival of steel mills; although the Development and Reform Commission has held many meetings to release some advanced coal production capacity,However, due to the time for the early safety inspection work, the increase in production is lagging behind; and the production capacity of advanced coal is close to saturation, which is difficult to increase production in the short term.The tension of coking coal supply and demand in the short term is difficult to alleviate.

The fundamentals are still tight, but we also noticed that the growth of terminal demand under the condition of tight real estate policies has a slowdown trend. In addition, the northern haze is coming, and the steel plants and coking plants in Hebei are environmentally friendly production restrictions on environmental protection production restrictions.The influence, as well as risk factors such as frequent pressure on policies.Overall, the fundamentals that support the price of coking coal will not change much in the short term, but the risks are gradually increasing.

Qihe.com 2,Does a single -day increase of nearly 10%mean that coking coal has ushered in the final stage of accelerating rising?From the technical form, is it possible for the market outlook to continue to innovate?

Cheng Binghong:At present, from a technical perspective, coking coal 01 continuously blocking the daily limit board has a trend of accelerating the top. The futures are still attached to the spot. When the spot still has a rising power, coking coal may continue to rise., But recent fluctuations may increase.

Qihe.com 3,The current black system is undoubtedly a popular sector in the product. What suggestions do you have to hold investors holding "double coke"?For investors who have not participated in this wave, will there be opportunities for arbitrage in the black variety room or future spot room?

Cheng Binghong:It is recommended that investors who hold dual -focus and multi -order pay attention to risk control, set the stopping point in time, and reduce their holdings at high time in time, stop profit and leave the field, and do not chase more. At present, it is not recommended to short according to the fundamental aspects and technical conditions.

With the increasing number of steel mill maintenance, the seasonal reduction of steel for steel has gradually emerged. It is recommended that investors pay attention to arbitrage opportunities to buy RB05 air i05.

For a long time, investment should be scattered or concentrated, which has always been the focus of controversy in investors.

Investors mainly based on the god of stock god Volon Buffett believe that investment needs to be concentrated. Choosing some good companies they know for a long time and enjoying long -term returns are the famous ways of investment.

However, Peter Lingqi, the headpiece of the US public fund in the same period as Buffett, is known for its nickname "stocks of love" and bought countless stocks in his career.Obviously, Lynch is a decentralized investment enthusiast.

In fact, the author believes that the controversy should be concentrated or decentralized, and in fact, it has not seized the core of the problem.The key to how to control the position is how much we have.

For example, do you need to choose 20 banks to disperse their deposits?Obviously not needed, because bank deposits are very stable and certain assets, he only needs to choose one or two reputable banks.

However, can an angel investor invest all his assets on one or two projects?In the angel investment industry with a high rate of failure, doing so will inevitably face huge risks.

Is a national debt investor, do you need to scattered the same period of the same period on many different national bonds?It is not necessary, because the repayment risk of government bonds is basically zero, and the same period and return on national bonds, buying a few more than to increase liquidity, it does not help much.

Conversely, when the garbage bond yields have risen and the price plummets, can an investor who uses a trusmal bond (Buffett has been an investor once in 2002 to 2003) Can you buy only one or two bonds with a heavy position?Even if the junk bond market rebounds, the investors in heavy warehouses may lose their blood due to the default of their bonds, which will not have a chance to rebound with the overall market.

It can be seen that the key to the problem is not to be decentralized or intensive, but how much is our certainty and successful grasp of an investment opportunity?Large certainty can be concentrated, and small certainty needs to be scattered.

In a great sense, this definition is in a high level.For example, if we determine that the junk debt market is extremely underestimated, we need to focus on investing in junk bonds.But because we have little grasp of a single junk debt, we need to decentralized to buy a bunch of junk debts.

In fact, not only investments, but any decision -making will face the problem of concentration or scattered.From some historical cases, we will find that the two are not opposite: strong certainty is concentrated, and weak definitation should be decentralized.

Before the battle of Guandu, the counselor persuaded Yuan Shao not to fight with Cao Cao because Cao Cao was good at using soldiers, and concentrated operations may be defeated by Cao Cao.The advantage of Yuan Shao is that there are more food, so it should be attacked on all sides, so that Cao Cao could not catch Yuan Jun's main force, exhausted Cao Jun, destroyed his base, disrupted his heart, and finally won.Yuan Shao didn't listen. As a result, Cao Cao had been in the Guan Du for half a year.

During the Anti -Japanese War 70 years ago, Mao Zedong created the modern and modern guerrilla tactics in China. With his own land, he was short.It can be said that Mao Zedong played the advantage of scattered operations to the extreme.

However, in the war of liberation in just a few years, the three major battles rolled.And the people's army with millions of troops and countless heavy artillery, in the face of the Kuomintang forces that faced people's hearts, do you need to disperse operations?

Therefore, concentration is still decentralized, but it is not a matter of essentialness. The level of certainty is the most important problem.Strong determination is concentrated, and weakness is scattered.

When a young Hungarian named George Soros came here in 1949, the London School of Political Economics was still chaotic.The trauma of the Second World War has not yet recovered. The victims of Nazi, the exiles of communism, and the fragmented British leaders all used London as a shelter.Everyone wants to find a theory to explain why Europe destroys themselves and how it can be rebuilt.The Labor Government reshaped Britain in the form of a new welfare country. The assistance of Marshall's plan has accelerated the reconstruction of the European continent.In the speech hall of the London School of Political Economics, the impassioned Marxist and liberal Fedrich Hayek were argued with Kanesists and anti -Kanesists.It was in this era that the historian of the school wrote: "The myth of the London School of Political Economics was born."

Soros had suffered difficulties before entering the campus.He was born in a wealthy Jewish family in Budapest. During the Nazi occupation period, he left his family and said that he was a Christian who was hiding in his father's acquaintances and survived.Have he seen all kinds of abuse bodies on the streets of that city?Tied with both hands and crushed heads.He once sold jewelry to vendors in the black market in order to help his family make a living.

In 1947, he was less than 17 years old. Soros waved goodbye to his parents that he might never see, and left Hungary to London to find a better future.In London, he has done dishwasher, housing painter, and restaurant workers.There was a class told him that as long as he worked hard, he might one day he would become his own assistant.The summer before he was studying at the London School of Political Economics, Soros finally found the work of Zhongyi and worked as a lifeguard in a swimming pool with not many people.He reads the works of Adam Smith, Thomas Hobbes, and Nicolo Makiavili.

At the London School of Political Economics, the most authoritative figure to Soros is Karl Popper.He is a Austrian philosopher who came to the United Kingdom to avoid the Nazi persecution and leave his hometown -that is, this person, and the young man who has completely unconsciously inculcated his thoughts to the most famous hedge fund manager.The central argument of Poper is that humans cannot know the truth. What they can do is to explore and approach the truth through continuous experiments and errors.This view has obvious attraction to a person with a background like Soros, because it implies that all political dogma views are flawed.Poper's masterpiece "Open Society and its enemies" allowed Soros to build his life dream, that is, he dedicated himself to philosophy.It guided Soros a unique way of thinking about financial issues, and also inspired him to name the charity he founded as the Open Social Research Institute.

Soros left the London School of Political Economics and his grades was mediocre and did a job without any future. He sold a lady's handbag in northern Wales. He wrote to all the investment banks in London to seek a primary position and get rid of this fate.Because of the lack of social relations, he was always rejected by these units, and finally got a job at a brokerage company opened at a Hungarian immigrant.After learning the basic knowledge of finance, in 1956, he managed to come to New York and calculated that as long as he was boiled on Wall Street for 5 years, he was enough to save enough deposits to support his life as a philosopher.

① But he quickly found that he was good at investing, and felt that exiting this field was a pity.By 1967, he had become a well -known Wall Street brokerage company specializing in the European stock market, the leader of the research team of Anhe Blazhelord.After giving them the idea of selling, I met the department managers of Alfred Winslo Jones, in 1969, he launched his 4 million US dollar stock selection funds. He called it the Double Eagle FundAnd managed the fund under the asylum of Blaoshi.

By then, Soros fused Poper's thoughts with his own financial knowledge, forming a complex he called "reflection".As Poper proposed in his works, the details of listed companies are too complicated and non -human capable. Therefore, investors rely on those guessing and shortcuts that are close to reality.However, Soros realized that these shortcuts can also change reality, because the guess of bullish bullish will promote the rise in stock prices, so that the company raises funds at low cost and improves performance.Due to this cycle, the certainty is even more impossible: people cannot clearly perceive reality, but the most important thing is that the reality itself is also affected by these unclear views, and these views themselves are constantly changing.Soros concluded that it was completely different from the valid market.

① Soros estimates that he will need $ 500,000.——Ar author note

The academic community believes that rational investors can get an objective stock valuation, and when all information is reflected in the price, the market has reached an effective balance point.But for Popper's believers, this premise ignores the most basic limitations of cognition.

Even though his financial career had begun in the 1960s, Soros continued to hide in the study of his resort house, racking his philosophical thoughts on paper.His thought also affected his investment way, although it later showed that Soros used reflection theory to explain the success of investment belonging to Zhuge Liang afterwards.

In an investment notes written in 1970, Soros explained the operation of the real estate investment trust fund with clear reflex.

"The traditional method of securities analysis is to try to predict future income." But as far as these investment trust funds are concerned, future income depends on investors' expectations for them.If investors are optimistic, they will inject low -cost funds to the successful trust fund shares to the successful trust fund shares.Low -cost funds will increase income, which in turn increases the possibility of success, so as to persuade other investors to pay a higher premium to invest in this trust fund.

Soros insists that the trick is not to pay attention to the expectations of income, and do not pay attention to changing the psychology of investor expectations. Instead, pay attention to the interaction between the two. It is predictedIt is estimated that collapse will be inevitable.Sure enough, the Real Estate Investment Trust Fund followed the process of Soros's expectations from prosperity to depression.His fund made a lot of money when they rose, while the other made money when it collapsed.

In 1973, Soros left Anheblai and established his own company.The office he rented was only one block from his cooperative company in the western Central Park. His partner also came from Ansheblai Company. He was the impatient workaholic analyst, named Jim Rogers.When he interviewed him at his home in Manhattan many years, Rogers discussed while he was also working on a bicycle, and installed laptops and telephones on the car to handle multiple things at the same time as much as possible.Together with Rogers, Soros continued to look for the unstable balance that might reverse.For example, he saw that relaxing financial control is changing the rules of the banking industry, and the dull department of the stock market became vibrant. He made a lot of money from bank stocks.

He discovered that the Arabian -Israeli war in 1973 changed the defense industry because the former Soviet weapons and equipment used by Egypt performed well, indicating that the United States faced unprecedented challenges.Soros predicts that the Pentagon will quickly convince Congress to invest, so he invests in a large number of national defense stocks.

When Soros realized that the rules of the game changed, he would buy boldly.After he judged that military expenditure would rise, he became the largest foreign shareholder of the defense contractor, the defense contractor.He was willing to be desperate before determining his point of view.If he finds an attractive rough investment idea, he will think of others.Because he believes that perfect cognition is impossible, there is no need to investigate details.During a skiing on Switzerland, he bought the "Financial Times" on the bottom of the cable chair. During the rise, he saw the British government's plan to assist Rolls Royce, and called his agent on the top of the mountain to ask for asking his agent to ask forBuy British government bonds.This makes experts entangle in detail.Soros’s motto is: "Invest in first, then investigate."

As of early 1981, Soros had achieved unusual success.

His hedge fund was renamed Soros Fund in 1973, and in 1978 it was renamed the Quantum Fund, and had accumulated $ 381 million in assets. Although the stock market was not good in the 1970s, this was almost the initial initial initially.100 times the capital.This young man who once reluctantly maintained his livelihood in London and sometimes relied on charity support, accumulated personal wealth worth $ 100 million, and he himself became a charity.

In June 1981, in the brief introduction published in the "Institution Investor" magazine, Soros respectfully called Soros "the greatest fund manager in the world."His opponent used tennis players Eli Nastas to praise Bio Pogg's words to express his admiration: "We are playing tennis, he is playing something else."

Soros does not exceed the realm of self -appreciation.He wrote: "I take a step back to look at myself, and my heart is full of awe: I saw a perfectly polished machine." I didn't mean to laugh at the slightest.He also acknowledged on another occasion: "I imagine that he is a God or an economic reformeer like a Keynes (they all have a general theory) or even better.The English pronunciation sounds like "relativity"). "But the tragedy is that he is not happy.If an investor wants to succeed, he needs to use his instincts and pay attention to the market. This kind of attention may be very strong, so that investors can feel it.If his investment portfolio is troublesome, Soros realized that the first feeling of this is the cold back.If Soros believes that the market may be unfavorable to him at any time, he will conform to the physiological signal given by his body and sell the stock he holds.Investment activities consume all his time and energy. He believes that he is a boxer who has sacrificed all his personal life for his victory. He compares himself to a patient who is a fund -spending fund in his body.

When he achieved successful one after another, Soros began to rethink the focus of life.In 1980, he dismissed Gim Rogers, who was irritable, Gim had repeatedly driven away young employees in the company, and did not help Soros to share some jobs. This made Soros disappointed.With a heavy -duty partner.Due to distraction, his investment performance fell.

In 1980, the return rate of quantum funds exceeded 100%, but the following year lost 23%, which was the first loss of this fund.As a result, Soros encountered a tide of crowding, and the capital he managed decreased from $ 400 million to 200 million US dollars.By September 1981, Soros, who felt humiliated, entrusted the remaining money to other investors. He himself withdrew from the investment market like Michael Stanhart 3 years ago.

When Soros returned back to full -time investment in 1984, he found a balance.Before that, he had been paranoid. If he was no longer paranoid, his performance would be affected.But during the period when he was in a middle age, a psychologist helped him get rid of some devils.He acknowledged his success and allowed himself to relax. He knew that doing this might be killing chickens and eggs, and it was meaningless to know not to do so.He gave up the operation of the fund to identify the fund by instinct, just like something in the body had been removed from him.He compared this change to a painful surgery, and in this surgery, he endured the pain of removing stones from the salivary gland.Once these stones are removed and exposed to the air, they will turn into powder.Soros recalled: "Those who entangle my heart are the same. In a sense, they disappear when they see it."

Soros replaced the signal of back pain with more intelligent things.Since August 1985, he has always insisted on writing his investment ideas. He hoped that the practice of this record of ideas would improve his judgment. As a result, the "real -time experiment" of "real -time experiments" was dense and duplicated.The profound reflection of the implementation is also a true portrayal of the speculators who work.In addition, Soros's diary wrote down one of his greatest achievements -betting on the US dollar, he called "the huge success in life."

Soros no longer admires the popular stock selection of Wall Street, but his focus on reflection cycles has made him think about opportunities.Just like the Michael Marcus, who has giving up the position of the cotton exchange and becoming a multi -faceted Michael Macus, Soros can not find any reason to understand everything about a few stocks. I just hope to predict some small changes.Know some fur so that you can seize the opportunity when a big change occurs.By the 1980s, the floating exchange rate after the collapse of the Bretton Forest system gave him a place of martial arts.At that time, the value of the US dollar was based on the viewer's view, and Soros believed that these views were defective. In addition, because these views may be reversed at any time, the value of the US dollar will change sharply.

This is not a traditional point of view of the currency market.In the 1970s and 1980s, most economists believed that the currency market and the capital market would become an efficient balance.If the US dollar is overestimated, the exports of the United States will be affected, and imports will increase. The trading deficit generated will mean that foreigners need to be used to buy American goods.The reduction of other currencies in goods will reduce the value of the US dollar and reduce the trade deficit until the system reaches a balance.Moreover, in traditional concepts, speculators cannot destroy this process.If they accurately expect the future direction of the exchange rate, they are just accelerating the balance point; if they judge the wrong process, the process of reaching the equilibrium point will slow down, but this slowdown will not continue because speculators will lose money.

Soros realized that the balance theory could not explain the actual currency changes.For example, from 1982 to 1985, the US trade deficit continued to grow, which means that the demand for the US dollar is weak.However, during this period, the US dollar appreciated. The reason is that speculative capital flow has promoted the rise of the US dollar, and the flow of these speculative capital is often self -enhanced: when hot money flows into the United States, the US dollar appreciation, and the appreciation of the US dollar has attracted more speculative speculation.Those who keep the exchange rate away from the equilibrium point.

If speculators are the real power to determine the exchange rate level, it means that currency will always show the process of prosperity first and then depression.In the first stage of this process, speculators will form a universal prejudice, and this prejudice will be self -enhanced, and the exchange rate will be used to stay away from the level of trade equilibrium step by step.The farther the exchange rate deviates, the more speculators feel that they are right, and the trade will be even more unbalanced.In the end, the huge trade imbalance of trade will overwhelm the prejudice of the speculators, the situation will reverse, the speculators will have a 180 -degree turn, and the trend of a new opposite direction will appear.

In the summer of 1985, Soros fully dealt with how the challenge was to judge the reversal time of the dollar.On August 16, when he started to write a diary, he suspected that it was coming soon.President Reagan reorganized his management team at the beginning of his second term, and the new team seemed to be determined to depreciate the US dollar to reduce US trade deficits.In terms of correlation, the same conclusion can be obtained according to the fundamental aspect: the decline in interest rates makes the speculators holding the US dollar in power.If political measures and low interest rates join forces, even if some speculators abandon the US dollar, the trend of currency appreciation may suddenly reverse.In the second stage, all speculators who want to hold the US dollar have already held it, and the market has almost no buyers, so only a few sellers can make the market reverse.

Whether Soros is about to come is about to come.If the US economic growth accelerates and interest rates rise, this will make the US dollar reversal less likely.On the other hand, if the bank starts to shrink credit, the value of mortgage value decreases and reduces the information feedback of credit, the problems in the banking field will slow down economic growth and promote a significant decline in interest rates."How do I judge? My only competitive advantage is my reflection theory." This theory makes him think of the risk of self -reinforcement financial confusion, so he tends to gambling in the US dollar depreciation. In addition, some technical indicators also point to this conclusion to this conclusionEssenceAfter considering the semi -scientific, reflected semi -philosophy, and semi -psychological assertion of the chart, Soros concluded the investment conclusion: short -haugnds.Despite some doubts in their hearts, Soros still decisively built a position.

As of August 16, the quantum fund has a relatively $ 720 million major currency worth $ 720 million, including Japanese yen, German Mark and British pound.Equity capital.The danger he rushed was amazing. He said lightly in his diary: "Generally speaking, my investment in any market should try to not exceed 100%of the fund equity capital, but I want to adjust the definition of the market composition.Introduction to my current thoughts ... "This thought hedge fund was actually eliminated inadvertently.

On September 9th three weeks later, Soros's second diary recorded that his investment was not good.The US dollar appreciated because of a series of optimistic economic indexes in the United States. This gambling game caused quantum funds to lose $ 20 million.Soros began to reflect again.He continued to focus on the weak banking system, and the chart impressed him that he might be transferred: Germany Mark seemed to follow some model, suggesting that it is about to appreciate significantly.Then Soros conducted a further analysis of this. He settled from the currency authorities to consider that even if the economic situation was better than expected, the interest rate may be maintained at a low level.Increasing interest rates, the swaying lenders do not want to see the increase in capital costs.In addition, the Fed can not increase interest rates because Reagan's reorganization government is determined to strictly control the fiscal deficit and alleviate the pressure of inflation.After that September, after Soros weighing the pros and cons, he decided to adhere to the bet that he was still losing money, but if the market was more unfavorable to him, he would give up half of it.

Soros' investment decisions are often victory in danger.The fact is that the market is effective at least to a certain extent, so most information has been reflected in the price. The speculative art is a point that others ignore, and then use that small advantage in a large number of transactions.Soros often looks for evidence, forms arguments, and then sways. A word that guests say casually during lunch may have a decisive impact on him. He may stand up from the seat and let the trader change the investment direction.Soros's decision on the second week of September that year on insisting on being short is one of the situations of life and death.If he hesitates a little after the loss, his life will be rewritten.

① However, Soros did not hesitate.

September 22, 1985 -less than two weeks after his second diary, US Finance Minister James Baker and France, West Germany, Japan, and the British Finance Minister gathered in Plaza (PlazaHotel).The five countries jointly promised to coordinate the intervention of the currency market and promote the decline in the US dollar.The news of the square agreement made Soros a profit of $ 30 million overnight.The next day the yen rose by more than 7%, the largest day of a single -day increase in history.

Soros is lucky.He thought of the Reagan government in advance hopes that the US dollar will fall, but he does not know how the authorities will operate, nor can he predict the meeting on the square.However, what happened after the square meeting had nothing to do with luck, just to make Soros a legend.Soros did not fulfill his profits in the short US dollar and eat the old books, but bought more.The reversal of the US dollar has finally arrived. The entire reflection cycle he knows believes that the initial decline in the US dollar is just the beginning.

The meeting of the square hotel ended in New York on Sunday, but at the time in Asia was Monday morning.Soros immediately called the relevant agent to place an order to buy more yen for his investment portfolio.The next day, when the dealers inside his company wanted to lock the profits of the small investment portfolio they operated, Soros made a rare fire.He ran out of the office and loudly ordered to stop selling the yen and told them that he would take responsibility for it.Traders do not want to lose their losses with success, but for Soros, the governments of several developed countries in the world have revealed the intention of the US dollar depreciation. The "square agreement" has issued a signal. Why can't he buy a large number of yen?In the next few days, Soros continued to buy.

On the Friday after arriving at the square meeting, he held a yen worth 209 million US dollars and Mark in Germany, and there were more than 107 million US dollars.If there is risks in this state, it may be that the square communarian is a paper tiger. This statement is so doubtful than how to take action, and it depends on whether the governments of various countries are observed to take specific measures.However, Soros's political relations in Washington, Tokyo and Europe are larger than any other New York fund managers, and his insiders advise him to believe that the "square agreement" is true.By early December, he bought yen worth 500 million US dollars and Mark in Germany, and at the same time increased nearly $ 300 million in US dollars.Soros wrote in his diary: "I have taken all kinds of possibilities and the greatest market risks."

① Soros acknowledged that he almost did not insist on short dollar in "Financial Alchemy".——Ar author note

Soros completed his first stage of actual combat in December 1985.He looked back at this period, from the assumption that the US dollar was about to depreciate, to the end of this theoretical confirmation.He kept guessing that the banking system would collapse, and the result proved that this was just a barrier.He acknowledged: "The prominent characteristics of my prediction are that I have been looking forward to the progress of no implementation." But this prediction error is not worth mentioning compared to his decisive success.Soros knows that there is nothing better than people's uncertain trend of the dollar, so the US dollar is higher, so this sudden reversal is immediately reversed.Because he knows the instability of the US dollar system, he understands the meaning of the "square agreement" faster than others.The "square agreement" is this trigger, which does not matter whether the specific content of the new policy is.The sudden promotion of the new policy has triggered a new trend. This trend can now rely on its own development to continue.

The return on investment based on the square agreement is amazing.In the 4 months since August, Soros's fund increased by 35%, generating $ 230 million in profits.Soros believes that his diary behavior is helpful to improve his performance. He joked that his profits were the highest remuneration that he had obtained as a writer.Two years later, when the diary was published as part of Soros's book, "Financial Alchemy", some commentators laughed at the diary and wrote like a running account.However, as a critic says, this "Financial Alchemy" is indeed useful (defeated the boiling mercury with egg yolk).

"Financial Alchemy" published in May 1987 confirmed Soros' celebrity status.His diary resonated in several young new stars in the hedge fund industry. What they saw was a true portrayal of a disturbancer anxiously and a variety of uncertain factors.Paul Tudor Jones, a cotton dealer, who received the entrepreneurial capital of the commodity company, later created a very successful Tudor hedge fund. He asked his employees to read the book "Financial Alchemy".In a preface to the published "Financial Refiners", Jones claims that Soros should be careful now. He quoted a scene in the movie "General of Patton" on the subject of the Second World War.This great US general experienced the taste of defeating the Army Marshal Erwin Rommel.Based on the tactical works of Rommel he read, Barton prepared a battle with Rommel. At the time of the movie climax, Barton looked out from the command post and said Jones's favorite sentence: "Rommel, your amazing bastard, I have read your book! "

Soros enjoys the trouble brought by such warnings.In the end, he became the kind of public intellectuals that he had admired at the School of Political Economics of London. He wore big glasses and carefully created images with thick hair, and suddenly began to appear on the cover of the magazine.Exotic mood halo.A brief introduction of the magazine says that Soror has been a global investor who has invested in global investment in the past few years before most fund managers know where Tokyo knows where to Tokyo.ease-of-use.From the terrible Manhattan trading hall, to rule the global market, he talked with the global financialist in 5 languages."Economist" magazine claims that he is "the most charming investor in the world", and the cover story of "Fortune" magazine implies that he may be the "most predictable investor in contemporary times" in front of Warren Buffett.However, as the "Institution Investor" magazine suffered a loss of 23%of his shame that he was shameful that year after the introduction of "Institutional Investor" in 1981, he also foreshadows a disaster in 1987.

The cover story of "Fortune" magazine appeared on September 28, 1987, and the title pointed out the question at the time: "Is the stock price too high?"The stock price of 400 industrial enterprises averaged three times the book value, which was the highest level since World War II."Fortune" magazine regards Soros as the first expert witness of the stock market, and explains that Soros is optimistic.趋势追随者将股市推高并不意味着崩溃即将来临,索罗斯声称说:“市场被高估并不意味着它是Best reps Jordan不可持续的。”为了支持他的观点,索罗斯指出,在日本,reps kicks股票The surge exceeds the traditional valuation.The collapse will eventually come, but the collapse will attack Tokyo before reaching Wall Street.

Soros is not the only one who is optimistic.In the next week, Solomon Brothers published a research report that promised that the bull market would last until 1988. Another week later, the famous JP Morgan Danley analysts and Soros' friends Byron Wayne predicted "in this cycleBefore the end, it will hit a new high. "This is an era when the leveraged acquisition and debt acquisition have steadily raised the stock price. The life of the company's secret acquirers appeared in the magazine, which is enviable.A well -known financial family David Hehinshr used that atmosphere to announce the invested $ 6.8 billion to buy Deton Hedsen.Hurins told reporters in his front garden lawn that his offer may be a scam or not.He said: "This is just a scam." The news pulled Deton Hedsen's stock to a very high price.However, after all, the scam was a scam, and Hallins were quickly taken to the hospital.

This acquisition boom is an excellent interpretation of Soros' reflection thoughts.Those acquisitions and takeover are self -enhanced: Every time the acquisition news announces, each company's stocks in the industry rose, and the profit expectations of the acquisition company's profit will be more enhanced.A large amount of loan sources are influxed to support the acquisition operation. This cycle pulls the stock price to the basic value of estimation, as Soros's theory is expected.Of course, this kind of acquisition will sooner or later collapse due to excessive debt. At that time, this trend will be reversed. However, there seems to be no powerful evidence that this reversal will come soon.Soros continued to use the chief philosopher of Wall Street as his new hobby, interviewed by journalists, and appeared in TV shows.

On October 5, Soros invited a fan to his office. This fan was Stanley Druckenmler. He is the most popular fund manager in Wall Street.The meeting said that he was interested in this book.Soros talked about it and provided a job for Druckenmille.He wanted to find a successor who managed quantum funds so that he had more time to put on philosophy and charity, because investment and financial management made him tired.Druckenmire refused to be so easily seduced, but the relationship between the two sides became intimate.

Drucken Miller is tall, shoulders, and Soros shorts; he speaks straightforward, and Soros speaks hidden; he is very ordinary, from central America, and Soros has an exotic tone, from Central Europe.But they got along well.At that time, Soros was already fifty, and he thought he was in his 30s.Although they have a lot of consistent views on the market, their capital positions are very different.Drucken Miller believes that the market collapse is coming, so he is short; quantum funds short the Japanese market, but do more US markets.

In fact, Soros has recently strengthened his stock selection team, and quantum funds have earned a staggering profit because of a lot of buying a large number of popular acquisition stocks called "arbitrage trash stocks" in Wall Street.Because of the market market, Soros's team expanded by 60%by the end of September.Everything looks good.

On October 14, Soros published an article in the Financial Times to reiterate that the collapse will start in Tokyo.On Wednesday morning, he went to the Kennedy Government College of Harvard University in the United States to give a speech on the theory of "prosperity and then collapse".After the speech, he found that the entire Wall Street was selling.According to news reports, the US Congress may be taxed by the company's merger, which may hit the bull market to a certain extent.On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 3.8%, which caused Soros's attention.He knew that the market was far away from a balanced point, and he also knew that after prosperity, it was a big collapse.As he later admitted, he said: "At that time, I should stay in the office and throw stocks and exit the market."

The stock market continued to fall on Thursday, and it fell even worse on Friday.After the stock market closed that day, Soros' new friends visited.The three -day selling made Druckenmille believe that the Dow Jones Index has fallen fully. According to his charts, the price is likely to fall to the point where it is about to rebound.That Friday afternoon, Drucken Miller changed from shorting to doing more.

Soros spoke a chart in front of him while talking with his friend. These charts were formulated by Paul Tudor Jones.Jones is another admirer of "Financial Alchemy", and Soros often discuss issues with him.Druckenmler looked at the trend characteristics reflected in the chart, and could not help raising a fear.Jones's chart seems to show that he has made a serious mistake.The chart shows that the historical trend of the stock market is: When the original rising stock price parabolic curve is broken, the price of the stock will accelerate, and these charts also show that the market in 19987 is similar to the 99 -year market.Maybe the stock market is about to collapse.

① In the early morning of the next day, Drucken Miller visited Jack Dreyfus -the founder of the Dlefos family common fund, and Druckenmler worked at the common fund.Drefers has instructed his secretary not only to retain the chart of the broader market index, but also the index chart of individual stocks.Druckenmil later recalled: "We looked at all the charts of all these stocks, and then I realized that I was dead. I saw that not only a few stocks would fall a lot, but all stocks."He said that this means that all the stocks have exceeded a critical point, and now they will accelerate:" A stocks have clearly broke through the critical point ... Obviously, I misjudged the situation. "Because I only followed the market, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, GermanyRukemler did not notice the worrying trend of individual stocks.There is an old saying in chart analysts -soldier leaders (individual stocks determine the broader market).Druckenmire was scared to die in the next weekend.On Monday, he got away from his position as soon as possible. Later in the morning, his investment had changed a great change of 180 degrees.After a few hours of nervousness, he took the short market again.

① Paul Jones later recalled, "By October 19th, on Monday, we knew that the market was about to collapse that day ... Last Friday, a daily turnover record during the decline was exactly the same as the situation in 1929, and it was also a collapse.Two days ago.

The analog model in 1929 completely showed the coming of collapse." - Author's note

On October 19th, it was called Black Monday in history.The Dow Jones Index lost 22.6%of the market value. This is the largest decline since this historic index began to enable.By quickly changing his own position, Drucken Miller avoided this worst period of chaos in the stock market, but Soros was not so lucky.He did his best to escape from the market, but because he was in charge of the funds than Druckenmido, and those arbitrage stocks with higher prices a few days ago, it was difficult to make a shot during the panic period.During lunch, when Drucken Miller had completed his position, Soros was still selling desperately, and the stock market was chaotic.A Wall Street person recalled: "People can't believe that their stocks will fall so fast." She looked at the small shop selling hot dogs outside through the window to stabilize her emotions.As long as the hot dog is still selling, this world cannot be played.

On Monday night, Soros re -evaluated the situation.The US stock market severely hit him, but his short position in Japan has achieved results because of the decline in the Japanese stock index, which relieves his losses.It is rumored that it is a newly developed investment tool called "investment portfolio insurance" that has caused the New York stock market to plummet. This investment tool promises investors to fight against the market. The operation method is to sell futures when the market is weak.Lock the potential losses of investors.But when thousands of people sell futures when the market is weak, the result is unprecedented disaster.If this statement is correct, Soros will get an obvious information -the market collapse of the market -controld transaction rather than the basic factors is likely to be corrected soon.Maybe the market is going to rebound.

On Tuesday morning, the market rebounded.Soros seized the opportunity to re -enter the market.However, his investment in the Japanese market has suffered heavy losses. He established a short position of the Nikkei index through selling futures in the Hong Kong market with stronger liquidity.But when the stock market collapsed on the black Monday, the manager of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange in China decided to close the market to prevent losses. When the US market began to rise on Tuesday, when the Japanese market would rebound the next dayHis short position.By Wednesday, the Nikkei index rose by 9.3%, the largest single -day increase since 1949.Costoros has no power.

A few minutes before the New York market closed on Wednesday, Soros talked to Druckenmil again.The Dow Jones Index has been strong for two consecutive days, and Druckenmler feels that another reversal is coming.He studied the history of collapse and discovered a law: After the market falls sharply, there will often be two days of soaring, but the market will fall into a trough again.That Wednesday afternoon, Druckenmille told Soros that he was short.

Soros was unmoved.He consulted other close friends and believed that Black Monday was an abnormal phenomenon and a nightmare brought by an investment portfolio insurance.

Drucken Miller has always got up early. On Thursday morning, he woke up in anxiety.When the market closed the day after closing, because of the abnormal performance of the investment portfolio insurance, Soros believed that the laws of history will not be repetitive.However, when he inspected the situation in London, he saw the stock collapse.If New York is hinted in the London market, Druckenmil's short position will perform well, and Soros will have trouble.

At around 8 am, Drucken Miller received a phone call at Solomon Brothers.

The agent told him: "There is a big dealer in the market, and the futures may be less than 200." This is a heavy bomb.The futures head closed at 258 at night, and instantly fell to 200 under the pressure of this big dealer, which means that it has dropped by almost 25%.Drucken Miller felt that he might as well build a position to prevent this from happening.He told his agent if the futures contract fell to 195, and helped him to calm down the empty position.At that low point, Drucken Miller will be happy to lock in profits.

After opening the market, the dealer violently suppressed the market.The futures fell below 200, and the orders from Druckenmille and the Solomon brothers were executed. From the night before to the present, his position has received 25%of the income.At about 10 am, the dealer's sales have ended, and the market has become stable. Druckenmille estimates that it is time to reverse.Thinking of the afternoon of the day before, Drucken Miller picked up the phone and called Soros.

"George, I just hope you know that I am not optimistic last night, but I think it may be the end now. Some crazy people have just sold it crazy, there is no consequences." Soros sounded calm and transcendence, I will come back all day back and fight again. "

It wasn't until that weekend Drucken Miller knew what happened.He picked up the latest version of "Baron Weekly" and found that the big dealer in the market was not someone else, it was Soros.

"Baron Weekly" reports part of the matter, which is related to Japan's troubles.After the rise in Wednesday, the Japanese market rose again on Thursday.Soros wanted to flatten his empty warehouse in the futures market, but there was no way to sell it before the Hong Kong authorities re -opened the market. At the same time, he lost a lot of money.Because of the losses in the New York market on Monday, quantum funds will have the danger of losing confidence in investors, which is enough to destroy any leverage funds.Once your lender feels that you have trouble, they start to recover the loan, which forces you to sell stocks when the market is weak and form a vicious circle.When Soros saw the London market falling on Thursday morning, which meant that the market would sell a lot, and he felt that it was time to withdraw.He exited the market too slowly on Monday, and he didn't want to let this happen twice a week.

He said, "I don't understand what's going on. We just decided to realize it, and one day." Then, he asked his trader Joe Orofino to sell the Standard Purcell Futures of the Chicago Commercial Exchange to withdraw from the marketOrofeno made the Lehman brothers' agents selling orders.Quantum funds have a total of $ 1 billion in positions to be sold, and it is fast, but it is impossible to sell a large number of positions without causing market changes.Traders in the futures field are ready to sell before Soros, and investors like Drukenmire know that they can make the market fall as much as possible before locking the short profit.Soros later regretted: "When they have such instructions, they suppress the market very, very low."

Soros's decision that day's realization may be his worst career. His fund lost about 200 million US dollars, reaching the extreme value of this severe change: within about a week, quantum funds have changed from 60%of profitability to profit to 60%to this time.The loss was 10%, and the value evaporated by 840 million US dollars.This incident shows the weakness of the hedge fund that later plagued the industry: the larger the fund size, the more difficult it to withdraw from the market, and it is difficult to achieve the price in the process that does not affect the price and does not harm its own interests.If the size of the quantum fund is smaller, Soros may sell it quickly as Drucken Miller on Monday, and on Thursday he may also sell his position without the price plunge.Soros's way of trading is to assume that he has the ability to turn the tide, and when this assumption is proven to be wrong, Soros has trouble.

The degree of collapse ruined the confidence of many fund managers.People who were proud of Chunfeng before are now dying."I was very frustrated at that time and lost my fighting spirit," Michael Stanhart later recalled. "My confidence is shaken and I feel very lonely." At that time, Soros's mood was not strong.As he said to Drucken Miller before the collapse, he was tired of operating quantum funds and always wanted to give up in his consciousness.But we don't need to doubt his courage. In 1987, we don't need it, and at any time, we don't need it. In Soros's fan circle, the way he recovered after collapse was the most prominent in his achievements.One or two weeks after the Black Monday, Soros was allowed to take a chance to be short. He boldly used the leverage effect, as if nothing had happened.The US dollar happened to fall, and the gambling game had achieved results.Although it suffered losses in the first two months, quantum funds eventually earned 13%in 1987.After the Black Monday, people who are gloating will inevitably appear.An anonymous news came to the London Times. The man said happily: "It took 20 years to make Soros a genius, but it took him only 4 days to make him a fool."A news of "Forbes" reviewed the cover story of Soros a few weeks ago.The article ridiculed: "If this rich, extremely arrogant, and famous fund manager born in Hungary appears next to the cover headline of a commercial magazine, quickly sell your stock."In Eastern Europe, people there were worried that this would make Soros end the charity in the region, and Soros flew to Hungary to promise that he would continue to provide funds to the Prime Minister.But by the end of 1987, Soros's decline was proven to be too early.

"Financialwork" magazine listed Soros as the second -person Wall Street income.Either others ranked first, or chart analyst, Paul Tudor Jones.

In 1987, the harvest of the "Lazarus" was better than the huge profits of the "Plaza Agreement" two years ago, which also consolidated Soros's position as a private investment hero.But it has a greater impact, because Soros has done a lot of work for the macro -type shelter funds that everyone knows later, at least in modern times.

From 1924 until his death, in 1946, Kanes, the donation fund of the Cambridge King's College, investing in the global market. Although the concept of "hedge fund" did not exist at that time, he used many macro fundsMethods recognized by managers.He specifies in currency, bonds and stock markets, and is globally. He also does more and use leverage to amplify his income.After the Second World War, the stable inflation, interest rate control, and currency were not flowing, which made Keynes' macro investment tradition outdated. It is ridiculous that Keynes himself also helped the negotiation exchange rate at the Bretton Forest Conference.After the Breton Forest system was disintegrated in the 1970s, macro investment began to be eager to try, but at first it was only tentative.

Two types of investors have recovered it.Equity investors such as Michael Stanhart first realized that interest rate changes might promote changes in the stock market, and then they directly bet on interest rate changes through speculative bond markets: first in the United States, and later developed to global.At the same time, commercial investors such as Michael Macus and Bruce Cofeller initially traded cotton and gold, but when the commodity market launched currency and interest rate contracts, they began to invest in these tools.However, before Soros's "Financial Refinery" was published, the management of equity and commodity categories was independent.Equity investors are based on fundamental analysis, while commodity traders are from culture led by charts and trends.However, Soros has both.The actual analysis and trend analysis in "Financial Alchemy" combine the basic analysis with trend analysis, combining the language of economists with the instinct of chart analysts.In this way, Soros managed to communicate with the two factions of hedge funds to remind them of the other party.Within a few years, commercial traders such as Paul Tudor Jones and equity investors such as Stanley Drumanmire are regarded as macro investors.A few years after the stock market collapsed, the Black Monday incident was given some deeper meaning.The modern financial engineering, which was confused by everyone, was blamed.Engineers created an unstable cycle: market decline caused insurance -based selling, which caused the market to further fall and sell another round of insurance.Mark Rubinstein, a professor of economics at the University of Cricig's University of Berkeley and the inventor of the combination insurance, was fell to be confirmed to be depressed: He was worried that the weakness of the US market may seduce the former Soviet Union to attack and make him right.Nuclear conflict is responsible.

It is not the first time that financial innovation has been blamed early.Soros once believed that investment portfolio insurance has led to Black Monday, but in history, market collapse occurs cyclically, and foreign markets with much less investment port insurance have also experienced a sharp decline.

Even in the United States, it was found that a $ 39 billion stock was sold on October 19 through the futures and spot markets on October 19. Only about $ 6 billion of the selling was triggered by investment portfolio insurance.Low -technology market participants are also important.Many investors and brokers have long -term orders. If their positions fall, they are sold, and these old -fashioned stop -loss policies may at least as much as the investment port insurance.In addition, the worries about collapse before the incident have become more common, so this collapse can also be explained psychologically.

The title of "Atlanticmonthly" was "repeated in 1929".The Wall Street Journal published an article on Monday morning in Black Monday, which added a recent decline in the market situation in the 1920s.In the end, financial instruments are just tools.Investors purchased investment portfolios or stop loss orders were due to the repeated market atmosphere at the time.

No matter what the investment portfolio is played, the biggest problem of this collapse is not it.Wall Street fluctuations have been severely damaged by the effective market theory of Soros.Within a week, the value of the US company rebounded in a straight line, which has nothing to do with effectiveness, and there is no signs of a balanced."The theory of reflection can explain such a bubble, but the valid market hypothesis cannot be explained." Soros later wrote, and he was basically correct.The effective market theory flourishing in the campus of American universities in the 1950s and 1960s was by no means accidental. It was the most stable place in the most stable period in memory.Soros has experienced the massacre, war, and in London. He has different views on life. After the market changes in the Black Monday, the academic world began to tend to his views.This collapse is a shame for Soros in terms of investment, but it is an recognition of him academically.

This reconstruction of this knowledge consensus consists of three parts.Effective market hypothesis has always been based on an unstable assumption: price change conforms to the normal distribution. This distribution shows the clock -shaped curve that everyone is familiar with.Less or not appear at all.

As early as in the early 1960s, a miracle of a maverick named Bernuwa Mandelbro believed that the two sides of the distribution may be thicker than the normal bell -shaped curve.At that time, Eugene Fama, who also met Mandel Buro, did some changes in stock prices and confirmed this assertion.If the price change is a normal distribution, the situation where the change is greater than 5 standard deviations should be appeared in daily data every 7000 years, but they actually appear every three or four years.

After making this discovery, Fama and his colleagues were silent.The problem of Mandelbro's view is that it is too complicated, which makes the statistical tools of financial economics useless, because the non -positive distribution model has not been solved mathematically.Paul Kutler, the founder of the effective market theorist and the founder of the commodity company, complained: Mandaelbro is like the previous British Prime Minister Chirgil. It is not beautiful, but hard -sweat, hard work, and tears.If he is correct, almost all statistical tools have to be abolished, including the minimum daily multiplication, spectrum analysis, great use of great solution, all the sampling theories we have established, and a closed distribution function.The past economic measurement work has become meaningless without exception.

In order to avoid falling into this dilemma, the economics community has maintained another view, especially after the normal distribution has achieved amazing breakthroughs in mathematics.In 1973, the three economists invented a new method of optional pricing. The exciting new financial industry was born, and Mandeier's opposition was ignored.Fama now believes that "the normal distribution is a very reasonable approximate approximate." The collapse of 1987 forced the economics community to re -examine this statement.

According to the normal distribution, the probability of the decline in the S & P 500 index futures contract on October 19 is only 1/10160, and 10160 means that there are 160 zero after 1.In order to better understand this probability, this means that even if the stock market has maintained an open 20 billion years -this is the highest limit of the life expectancy of the universe, even if the universe is destroyed 20 times, it will be reopened for 2 billion years after each time.The collapse will not happen.In the early 1970s, Manderbro, who had abandoned financial economics because of his views on his views, began to re -study this theme with a revenge psychology.The idea of his "chaos theory" is exactly the same as Soros' ideas. He emphasized that because of a complex reflex cycle, small information may cause large price fluctuations. This theory has been sought after by many fund managers.

In addition to Black Monday, in addition to challenging the statistical foundation of financial economists' thoughts, it also forces them to re -consider the assumptions of basic principles.The valid market theory assumes that investors can always take action. If they know that the value of IBM is $ 90 per share, rather than the current price of $ 100, they will be short until their transaction influence will reduce the price by $ 10.This kind of ignoring institutional friction involves many other assumptions: you have to assume that smart speculators find enough IBM stocks to borrow and sell short, and in actual life, you must cover up and cannot determine that IBM's stock value is 90 is 90The facts of the dollar.Specifications are always related to risks, and only speculators can bear risk, and may not be able to expect them to bring the price to an effective level.

Before the collapse of the stock market in 1987, these quibbles seemed to be irrelevant.To be sure, most ordinary investors may lack the means and confidence required to take action, but the effective market theory will want to rest on a few people.EssenceHowever, Black Monday shows that experienced investors do not always successfully correct the wrong pricing.

During the chaos of the market collapse, the agent's phone call was exploded by the panic seller. It is difficult for them to issue a call and place an order; all lever investors are worried that his credit limit will be canceled.In fact, it is uncertain; and the most important thing is that the huge influence of selling makes the reverse operation risk.When everyone in the world is selling, no matter how strong you think the price has fallen too much, it is not important. At this time, buying is incredible.

At least, the valid market hypothesis does not seem to be in crisis.But this collapse also raised a deeper problem: if the market is valid, why does the stock market bubble swell?Similarly, the answer seems to be partly part of the institutional obstacles faced by speculators.In the summer of 1987, investors can clearly see that the stock price and corporate income are higher than at any time in history, but if the market has to be priced like this, funds need to suppress it.Hedge fund managers are not easy to borrow stocks than anyone else, and a few people know how to operate are limited.Because of these institutional reality, overestimation may continue.The wise speculators will push the price to the effective market of effective levels.

After 1987, the third round of attacks on the effective market theory may be closest to Soros's dissatisfaction with it.This attack is the protagonist of the center of economics, which is also known as the "economic man".When investors change the valuation of American companies within one day, some irrational analysis will appear, and people will no longer be fully rational.Economists suddenly start listening to such ideas may explain the degree of differences.In 1988, Richardsler of the University of Chicago began to publish some common features in the Journal of Economic Outlook, and cited people's choices that violated the rational expectations of economics.This is another recognition for Soros, who is obsessed with cognitive limitations when doing students in London.

In some ways, attacks on valid market theories in three aspects of statistics, systems and psychology are also an recognition of hedge fund industry.It helps to explain why Michael Stanhart's community trading and Hermer Wima's commodity transactions can be so successful, and it also shows that market practitioners are often in front of academic theorists.Understanding that the incomplete and effective market has triggered the wave of professors of finance at the founding of his own hedge fund, and also caused the experienced people to invest in their funds, and brought about the long -term growth of the industry after 1987.But there is a bad aspect of this concept.If the market is not always effective and rational, the impact on the society may be harmful: the laws of prosperity before prosperity will distort and destroy economic stability, thereby harming ordinary workers and families.If the market is a demon, is it a more crazy demon who is more crazy than the market than the market?Despite some exaggeration, this suspicion has repeatedly plagued them when hedge funds enter the golden period of rapid expansion.

This article is selected from "The Rise of the Rich Enemy -hedge Fund and the New Elite"

(This article is published in the "Caifeao/Langtan" column on February 7, 2010)

In 1975, Charles Eris published an important article in "Financial Analyst Monthly" entitled "The Loser's Game", and for the first time, he called the investment "the game of losers".At that time, Aris observed that in the field of investment, thousands of people went to the "unlimited" stocks in front of them."Non -compulsive errors" -This is a term of tennis, which eventually became a "championship" based on power.In other words, in order to defeat the market, fund managers must first defeat competitors. In order to achieve this goal, they have to increase short -term transactions. The end result is "booked a tragic ending", and sometimes it has caused huge losses.Therefore, the pursuit of defeating the market gain naturally evolved into a return on the fund manager.For the reason, the active active investors believe that the belief that can defeat the market is based on the following two assumptions: 1. The liquidity of the stock market is an advantage; second, institutional investment is a game of the winner.But Arris did not agree with this statement, "" Due to major changes in the past 10 years, these assumptions are no longer applicable. "On the contrary," the liquidity of the market is a debt rather than assets, and after a long period of timeInside, the performance of institutional investors in the market will also be poor, because fund management has become a game of losers. "

Arris concluded that most successful investors are not necessarily very smart people, nor are people who have a million yuan to study budgets, and they are not necessarily lucky to get 1,000 US dollars on a stock.EssenceOn the contrary, they are those who rarely make mistakes in their investment careers.Golf can provide us with an example of a good losing game.The winner in the Professional Golf player association in the professional golf player in Sunday is not necessarily the farthest person who hit the ball, nor is it the best person who has a light strike, nor is it the first person to complete the game.The winner is the one who made the least mistakes in 4 rounds.This is the only difference between golf and most other contact sports such as football and hockey.In contact competitions, including tennis, the result of the game is determined by the winner. This person must score most of the comprehensive strength with the help of his technical and muscle power more than the comprehensive strength.In golf, the final result of the loser determines the final result.For example, "Tiger" Woods won the championship championship more importantly because his opponents made more mistakes than him.Woods can hit 10 goals at normal levels. If one of his 64 competitors happen to make less mistakes and hit 11 goals at normal levels, Woods will lose the championship championshipEssenceThe end result is indeed not controlled by Woods himself, so he must rely on other opponents more mistakes than him.The bowling ball is also similar to this. Each player starts with the ideal perfect 300 points. When more bottle is hit, he lost the score.The final result of the game was determined by the loser because he did not hit more ball bottles.

If you understand the rules of this loser, you have taken a key step on the road of successful investment.The reason why Warren Buffett was successful is because he made very few mistakes in his career in his career.Does Buffett make no mistakes?have.Buffett acknowledged that his most often made mistakes was to "drag the bad habits", which made him miss the opportunity to reorganize stocks, or he could not sell the stock in time.However, the two types of mistakes did not lose their capital, but they just lost their good opportunities.But few people think of Buffett's main principles -don't lose capital.Do not lose capital is the most important tool for long -term investment.No investor, including Buffett, can avoid phased losses in a single stock. Even if you let you only buy those who are really credible low -cost stocks, the accidental errors will still happen.Someone must say that I can use investment diversity to ensure safety.In fact, investment diversity does not stop the loss.Even if you hold 100 stocks, you will always encounter a strong attack on market risks. If the risk is reflected in a downward market, it will cause all the stocks to fall together.egg"?

Historical records have clearly stated that long -term returns are closely related to the length of your shareholding and the price of your purchase of stocks, and the existence of frequent transactions and disregarding basic risks is like a heavy iron anchor for investors., Make short -term investors often make mistakes.The final conclusion is still that it is easy to win the game of "defeating the market", that is, never participate in this game.

Author | Chief Economist of Tianfeng Securities, Director of China Chief Economist Forum, Liu Yuhui

When a game of Go is going to enter the sequential plate, the most important job is to "point empty", and then you can determine the strategy of the preface.

At present, the trading of the head is poor, and the eyes are full of games. It is not easy to make money.A group of headless flies, as if everyone was thinking about Yang's mother.Stop it, first "point empty."

Now it is necessary to curb real estate creation assets, and bond transactions do not allow the creation of assets (the rapid expansion of financial management, outsourcing, and other possibilities may enter the bond transactions through various transaction structures).Relying on real estate and financial leverage.

The economic speed has to be kept "smooth". Which direction will guide the creation of assets?This is the key to the problem.

Is it an infrastructure?Our infrastructure today is completely different from 2008 and 2009. Today we have to face a huge amount of up to 15.5 trillion yuan, and to support such a plate of a volume. If the real estate and financial transactions are suppressed,The infrastructure must not top 30%(about 20%this year), then the scale of expansion of more than 4 trillion.There is no way to support such a high intensity according to the existing financial and quasi -financial means.What is the possibility, not to mention the impact of bond leverage and the impact on bond issuance?

Where is the direction of policy guidance and creating assets, everyone can "be empty."

The current debt is a broken car assembled by the repair plant, and it can continue to drive forward along the "fundamental surface", but it can't stand the bumps of the road. The parts in the car are dingling.The transaction is very difficult.You can only blame the bonds that are too crowded, and you can't blame your mother.Now there is another industry that is connected to another industry. Another interbank industry is outsourced. Funding is the fund.But the fund eventually needs to connect to trading bonds.The bar is like a series circuit.So this transaction structure is a car breaking.

The essence of asset shortage is that financial capital has entered the era of "reeling"

At this stage, financial capital is basically zero -sum. In essence, there is no threshold. Industrial capital is the key. After so many years of research, it is found that finance is purple."Back to the truth".

For industrial capital, it is possible to face an opportunity window now.If you can give private enterprises with peace of mind, with so many years of learning and accumulation, industrial capital is very promising.At the same time, change the Internet + to "Industry + Internet" to clean up and correct over financial liberalization.

Thinking that decision makers may be eager to "get rid of the truth" than ever.

how to do?

The only way is the deep integration of financial capital and industrial capital.This makes this direction an engine for asset creation.

Recently, there are many things. I didn't think deeply about this, but I felt like this.

This time, the person who came in to find the assets was not the trading price difference, and the ROE of the asset was found.This may be the eve of the formation of a new worldview.The only uncertainty now is GJD's heart.

Of course, there is a dog blood drama outside.There are only ten days anyway.

Author: Liu Yuhui, a professor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a doctorate instructor, and chief economist of Tianfeng Securities, director of the Academic Committee of the RMB forum.

Twenty years ago, his status could not even compare the current Zuckerberg;

He was an idol of Ma Yun's youth at one time;

At the age of 26, he founded Yahoo, led the world into the Internet era, and changed the entrepreneurial map of Silicon Valley, known as the "founder of the Internet 1.0 era".

In 2000, Yahoo's market value once exceeded $ 125 billion.He inspired generations of Internet entrepreneurs in generations of China.

When he founded Yahoo, 31 -year -old Zhang Chaoyang was blindly mixed after graduating from MIT. Ma Yun, 31, just knew what the Internet was;

The 24 -year -old Ma Huateng is still conceiving the prototype of Penguin. Ding Lei, 24, is working for a US company;

The 24 -year -old Zhou Hongzheng is studying at Xi'an Jiaotong University, and his grievances with the Chinese Internet are also talked about.

Xue Manzi described the current Yahoo and Alibaba, like the younger brother of the year became the uncle, and the uncle of that year became 'Little Three'.

For more than 20 years of ups and downs, how much sighs for Yahoo's founder Yang Zhiyuan?

Yahoo got 2 million investment at the beginning of its founding

Yang Zhiyuan was born in Taiwan, China in 1968.Because his father died early, he and his brother grew up by his mother.When Yang Zhiyuan was 10 years old, they moved their family to California, USA, a place not far from Silicon Valley.

He also had a new English name Jerry Yang, but Yang Zhiyuan, who was new to the United States, had to spend a period of dark school time because his English was too scum.Fortunately, he was very smart and quickly adapted.Relying on his own efforts, he was admitted to Stanford University. With 4 years, he won a bachelor's and master's degree, and met his later co -founder David Filo when he stayed in school.

Yahoo (British name Yahoo) is from "Grey Buddha Journey", and is a group of savages who have not been educated and have no culture in the book.

Yang Zhiyuan himself said that Yahoo's name "Don't do anything at Stanford University, walk around, there is no level, so he laughed at Yahoo."

Initially, Yahoo racks on the campus network of Stanford University, just like Facebook's standing on the campus network of Harvard University.

As more and more people visit Yahoo, the school was overwhelmed to sweep them out.Yang Zhiyuan designed the business model of advertising traffic, and sought financing from the venture capital of Silicon Valley.

Unexpectedly, this company with only two people and a few computers received an investment of nearly 2 million US dollars in Sequoia Capital, and the company had no income.

The former Internet myth

After 2 years, Yahoo was listed, with a market value of $ 39 billion

Under the leadership of Yang Zhiyuan, Yahoo changed from a website that provided a classification directory to a new media."Thousands of people enter the information highway through Yahoo, which is a must -have gateway."

Since then, the opening of the portal website has triggered a number of followers and imitators.Domestic Sina, Netease, and Sohu are all imitating Yahoo.

Yahoo was listed in 1996, and Yang Zhiyuan became a billionaire overnight.Within 4 years, Yahoo stock rose by about 100 times.In the first quarter of 1996, Yahoo compared with competitors Infoseek, Excite, Lycos, the daily visits exceeded twice the opponent.At the end of 1997, the average daily visits reached more than 90 million, more than the sum of all opponents.Even Infoseek's boss had to admit that Yahoo had surpassed other opponents.

Yahoo became the darling of Wall Street, and Yang Zhiyuan's property also rose.

In the face of an interview, Yang Zhiyuan said: "At that time, the biggest happiness was not money. The most good thing was that you were changing the world every day."

In 1998, the Forbes magazine launched a high -tech rich man. Yang Zhiyuan jumped to 16th with a wealth of $ 1 billion and became the richest man in the high -tech Chinese.In 1999, Yang Zhiyuan and Fero had become the helmsman of the online media company. The company's market value was as high as US $ 39 billion, and Yang Zhiyuan's paper wealth reached $ 7.5 billion.In 2000, Yahoo's market value once exceeded $ 125 billion.

The most beautiful battle

Use $ 1 billion in exchange for Alibaba 40% of the shares

Before and after the 298 World Computer Expo, Ma Yun accompanied Yang Zhiyuan to visit the Great Wall.This is also the beginning of the four years older than Yang Zhiyuan and Yang Zhiyuan for many years.

In May 2005, Ma Yun and Yang Zhiyuan met at the United States Golf Course.

On the court, everyone suddenly had to bet on the CEO of UT Starcom China Company, Wu Ying, and Ma Yun's competition was settled to see who played far.

Only Yang Zhiyuan bet Ma Yun.As a result, Wu Ying was empty, and the thin Ma Yun really won.

After playing the ball, Yang Zhiyuan would not let Jack Ma.California's wind was very cold, and Yang Zhiyuan said side by side with a smile, "Let's set the transaction."

Yahoo gave all its assets in China to Alibaba, and then gave Alibaba a $ 1 billion. Yahoo owned a seat, 40%of the economic benefits of Alibaba, the company's board of directors, and 35%of the voting rights.

In 2005, at the Chinese Internet Summit in PEBBLEBEACH, California, Ding Leihong, the founder of the left, Ding Lei, the CEO of the left two Baidu, Yang Zhiyuan, co -founder of the left of the left, and the four Chinese investors Duan Yongping.

This time to marry, in the eyes of outsiders, it is not right to talk to the door. At that time, Yahoo was a world -renowned Internet company, but Alibaba's core business was still growing.Like a newborn baby.

In 2005, Yahoo used $ 1 billion in exchange for 40% of Alibaba's shares was Yang Zhiyuan's most beautiful battle in Yahoo.This transaction has a profound impact on the fate of Yahoo and Alibaba, and has completely changed the ecology and direction of the Chinese Internet.

Alibaba's IPO last month shocked the global market, and the company's stock price is currently about $ 106.Yahoo holds 16%of Alibaba shares at $ 36 billion.

When Yang Zhiyuan was not Yahoo CEO, he took out $ 1 billion to acquire 30%of Ma Yun's shares.

He knows that these assets will have great value one day in the future.

Therefore, Ma Yun said that Yang Zhiyuan is the most investment in Silicon Valley.This should also be the most beautiful thing he did in Yahoo.

Once the past, the one -life is nowadays

Lost Google first, two lost Facebook

Since the crushing of the Internet bubble in 2001, Yahoo's income has declined sharply, and the stock price has fallen thousands of feet.

Yang Zhiyuan has also tried to inject new vitality into Yahoo through mergers and acquisitions, and spent huge sums of money to "buy and buy".In this process, Yang Zhiyuan either missed or bought wrong, and made a lot of mistakes.

Yahoo was the world's largest search engine, but the search business has been carried out for many years, and technology has not made great progress.

In 1997, he refused to acquire Google, who took the initiative to go to the door with $ 1 million.

What's more terrible is that he also gave the search function to Google to complete, and virtually supported competitors.After a few years, Google rode the dust, and he never had a chance to acquire.

Similar mistakes also occur on Facebook.In 2006, Zuckerberg agreed to sell Facebook at a price of 1 billion U.S. dollars, but Yang Zhiyuan did not understand the social network at the time and pressed the price to $ 850 million. Zuckerberg refused.

Today's Facebook market value is as high as $ 367 billion. I don't know Yang Zhiyuan who has seen the recent news. What do you think now?Facebook was missed, and Yahoo missed the last life -saving straw.

Yahoo is exhausted the last strength

Farewell to this era

On July 25, 2016, Verizon (US Telecom Giant) announced that it had acquired Yahoo's core assets for $ 4.8 billion. Microsoft wanted to acquire Yahoo for $ 4.4.6 billion, but now Yahoo had to accept a price of $ 4.8 billion.

The tragedy was not completely ended, and Yahoo was exposed to the information leak. Verizon began to bargain and wanted to cut off $ 1 billion for acquisitions.

The giants will end this unbearable and weak.The current Yahoo even has a hint of struggle and resistance.

Yahoo's founding, growth, growth, and falling to us perfectly show the entire process of an Internet company.

A company that had been unable to live has happened in just a few years.Perhaps, like Nokia and Motorola that year, the glory and decline of each company are inseparable from the promotion of the times and the internal factors of the core of leadership.Factors in both inside and outside have caused the decline of Yahoo.

A successful founder

Not necessarily a good leader?

In the past, Tideyer can only follow the emerging Internet companies such as Google and Facebook. The search and social network technology used by the latter have become popular, and they have photographed seniors such as Yahoo on the reefs.

Today, the market is changing rapidly and technological innovation is a thousand miles a day, not only Yahoo, but also a number of "old brothers", including HP, Kodak, Nokia, are also desolate.

Fierce competition is like a large waves, and high -tech enterprises need to keep the "combat mode" at all times, otherwise it will be easily eliminated by the rising draft of innovation.

After leaving Yahoo China, Zhou Hongzhang, who likes to leave Yahoo, said, "The success and failure of any company are caused by yourself. Don't blame all of them. Regarding Yahoo's failure, you can say that from CEO to Yang Zhiyuan, summarize with two words, summarize with two words.Just: Stupid B. "

He even said: "Yang Zhiyuan is a successful founder, but it is definitely not a good leader, and it is definitely not suitable for the CEO position."

After the decline of Yahoo, what did Yang Zhiyuan do something wrong? We will not discuss it for the time being, but we should believe that history is not right or wrong. After all, as the founder of the Internet era, Yang Zhiyuan has created the history of the Internet.Wipe.

Today, Yang Zhiyuan is far away from Yahoo. In 2012, he founded the venture capital fund AME Cloud Ventures, focusing on investment companies in the field of data -related and cloud service value chains.

For Yahoo, founded by Yang Zhiyuan, when you go to this day, when you need to say goodbye to the times, Yahoo's imprints left by Yang Zhiyuan may not just have a little white hair on his head.

Some people say that Yang Zhiyuan was a successful person. Once upon a time, Shang Yahoo website almost became synonymous on the Internet;

Some people say that a hundred years later, if people only remember two people who contributed to the Internet the most, then these two people are Yang Zhiyuan and David Filo;

Twenty years later, this "former pioneer", the Internet "veteran", this intercourse of the century brought the Yahoo mailbox and Yahoo Messenger who brought the original Chinese netizens at the beginning of the century to end his scenery and become the twilight old man.

Now, Facebook founder Zackberg undoubtedly become a super star in the Internet industry.Behind a laugh, who would care about Yang Zhiyuan and his first generation of the first generation of the Internet and his Yahoo?

Perhaps as he said, "I want to do things according to my own pace, even if a mistake is made, no one will care about it. Those who see me always say that I am happier now."He is the happiest person who cares too much.

We are not too harsh to blame Yang Zhiyuan.However, 100 billion Yahoo falls down, a tragedy that must be remembered.

Only one day in a year, but the income is five times the same. This programmatic transaction once again proves to Wall Street again -what is the most lacking of hedge fund industry?Of course "people"!

Just like many hedge funds, the macro currency department of Xinan Global Investment Corporation (PGI) also use a computer model to formulate a trading strategy.The difference is that this machine only runs one day a year.

Every January, the long -term economic prediction model of the computer will establish a key trading position for the company in the next 12 months.Earlier this year, the model predicts that the yen will appreciate against Swiss francs. At that time, almost all "human" analysts did not see this trend.

"For a long time at the beginning of the year, making multiple yen is not a popular transaction," said Ivan Petej, the head of quantitative strategy of PGI.But he said he was confident in the model.Sure enough, this model did not let Petej wait too long.As the demand for risk shelter increased, the yen rose 15%against Swiss francs.

As the Japanese yen strengthens, this "Global Time Diversify Strategy" managed 830 million US dollars of $ 830 million (GLOBAL TIME DIVERSIFIED Strategy) has reached 13.8%this year, ranking third in the Citi Fund rankings, almost hedging fundResearch the company's HFRI macro currency index returns of the macro currency index!

The success of this "only one -year transaction" is the choice of robots on economic indicators. For example, manufacturing data, such as manufacturing data, have a great impact on the long -term trend of exchange rates.Another key is that PGI computers are not acting separately. In the rest of the year, the fund manager Mark Farrington will adjust the investment portfolio in short -term fluctuations.

PETEJ is a PhD in physics at Oxford University. He and Farrington discovered many years ago that the market needs a fund that can capture global economic growth, but must surpass traditional trading strategies.For many years, many strategies have borrowed low interest rate countries currency and bought currencies of countries with higher bond yields.

"We believe that the establishment of a foreign exchange market benchmarking strategy that tracks the global economic growth and has a long span may be better. At that time, no one in the foreign exchange market had adopted this strategy," PETEJ said.

"Most programmatic transactions are high -frequency transactions," said Don Steinbrugge, a management partner of hedge fund consulting company Agecroft Partners."Only one transaction in a year is too alternative to this idea."

Regardless of the strategy, "de -humanization" has become the hottest trend of global hedge funds.

The Hong Kong Wande News Agency has previously reported that market analysis agency Preqin survey found that programmatic transactions accounted for about 9%in the US hedge fund market.According to Goldman Sachs, one -fifth of American investors are becoming more and more interested in relative value strategies, compared with 13%a year ago.

Not only that, artificial intelligence (AI) has also become a guest of hedge funds.This type of program is further further than quantified software, and it will self -improve in transactions to imitate the learning ability of the human brain.Bloomberg data shows that the world's hedge funds that rely on AI also seem to have done a good job, and the income of 12 funds this year has reached 7%.

Looking at the fruitful results of the robot, you have to admit that in the intellectual dense hedge fund industry, "people" are becoming the most unimportant factor!

The founder of Blackstone Peter Peterson from Greece, holding $ 200 to MIT to go to the world, leading Lehman brothers, creating Blackstone, and becoming a billionaire when he retired, and he is active in the American politics. He is a legend.Regardless of the government or enterprise, he is actually a politician or activist, and has experienced countless times ...

Maybe you want to know, how did he do it?

From "The starting point of Blackstone, My Spell -the founder of Blackstone Peter Peter Sen Autobiography"

Author: peter peterson

>>>> Introduction to the author

Peter Peterson, born in the city of Nebraska on the grassland of central US, is a Greek immigrant.He obtained a bachelor's degree in business administration at Kellogg College in Northwestern University.In 1962, he was selected by the "Life" magazine as 100 most influential characters under the age of 40.He served as the Minister of Commerce of the United States from February 1972 to January 1973.At the same time, it is also the founder of Heishi Group, one of the largest independent alternative asset management agencies in the world.In 2008, he invested one billion U.S. dollars to establish the Pitpitpidson Fund.

I have joked that most of the most vivid title of the autobiography should be "seeing me."But this title is not suitable for this book.However, people often ask my career (business and public policy), and it seems that my experience contains some valuable experiences.

In terms of business, a question that many people are interested in is that why I can get important positions in some seemingly unrelated areas, such as advertising, manufacturing, and financial fields. How do IDo it?

Maybe everyone has an unexpected question: How to become a billionaire?

In the field of public policy, if the public affairs I love is my second career, I often ask, how did I invest in this second career while not neglecting the original cause?

My first answer (not me) was -some of my success was because of shit.

I have really had a lot of good luck.But the editor felt that this answer was too perfunctory.He said that this extended a question: Why are there many senior positions looking for me at a young age?And I did not answer. How should I respond when the opportunity followed (no matter how they arrived, why)?For me, the answer of the famous boss of the Tannimi Association George Washington Plaxett was very brilliant: "I saw my opportunity, and I seized them."

In order to avoid making this part a career consultation, let me say one more.Our interests, hobbies, abilities, resources, advantages, of course, there are disadvantages, which are different, so there is no uniform standard for "how" "how" has carried out career planning.At least for me, this standard is not available.I emphasized that I have never planned for my long -term career route. I can't plan for you.

What I can help you is that when you read these themes or guidance principles, treat them as a link to connect me all kinds of business, and then ask yourself: What are applicable to me?What are your interests, abilities, and passion?

Give play to your comparative advantage

Maybe the first lesson I learned is: Don't be led by your nose by a certain job.

Concentrate on whether your advantages can be reflected in your work -your comparative advantage.

My first job, the retail industry, reflects my relative disadvantages, so I defeat.After that, I learned to refuse job opportunities that are not suitable for me, no matter how tempting it is.In the end, I found that the good or bad of my career depends on my performance in my job, which means that I give full play to my advantages.Adam's students will keep in mind that he has applied to the most of his centuries: give full play to your comparative advantages.I found that this sentence is good for people, work, and also applicable.

Can't be lazy in thought

When I put my comparative advantage into practice, I learned an important second lesson: I can't be lazy in my mind.I often think about your company, your industry, and the specific situation of the entire economic environment!

In the advertising industry, it is not called genius to have a high pillow.Also think about what the advertisement is, what the advertisement is, and what the advertisement should be.

In my career in my two areas, I found that I am not only attracted by some micro -problems, that is, everyone has to do specific things every day.My interest.I like this -small and magnificent, concrete and abstract.

The most important thing is to invest, and try to take practical actions

I am dissatisfied just what I know, or what I think I know.I want to record them, talk about them, and even spread them to others.In the process of practice, the person I met is smarter than the other, the other is more enthusiastic and devoted.Not only did they transform my thinking, they also expanded my thinking.Therefore, in the process of writing manuscripts, draftsmate or other lectures, I felt that it is not enough to think and record good ideas, at least for me.

This is the 3rd lesson: For me, the most important thing is investment and try to take practical actions.This means that I try to improve or improve the situation that I think is worthy of hard work, and there is something that I think to change.That's why I spent so much time working to work in various institutions, or to establish various institutions.These institutions have greatly expanded my communication circle and helped me meet a lot of people with a thoughtful consensus with me.I am dedicated to citizenship, financial responsibilities, intergenerational fairness, standardized Capitolic behavior, charity reform, and long -term performance bonuses of the CEO.

Therefore, at the critical moment in my life, I found that someone would prepare me from the position of a board of directors from time to time -whether it is a profit or a non -profit organization, or a new business for my company, because in the above areasThey once fought side by side with me.Moreover, they obviously trust my observation and decision.A typical example is the two -party joint budget appeal committee of the 1980s. I and the five secretary -generals of the Ministry of Finance and I also called on the realization of the government's internal financial responsibilities.

I did not expect before that my amateur activities can also become the hero of my career.One of the main points of this class is: Don't participate in these activities because it helps you.My participation comes from my interest.With interest, the others are naturally water.

Combining individual needs to choose your field of struggle with caution

When some opportunities that can't make money are in front of me (this kind of thing often comes one after another), I have to make some difficult choices.Should I take the opportunity to take down most of them, or do I choose how many of them?When I was active, I was eager to try and fist, and I knew that this interest may finally lead to my three hearts and eagerness -to do things for a while, and for a while.So, I finally chose only one or two of them.

One of my principles is particularly simple, that is, following my interest.Or like a philosopher Joseph Campbell said: "Follow your happiness."How happy it is to work in the field of interest!I often be attracted by the board seats of a well -known institution to build a better interpersonal network, but if this is not my interest, I will refuse.

Because I am particularly passionate about things in some areas, and I am willing to spend a lot of time on them. I will not only be very happy to spend a lot of time and energy on the affairs of these institutions, but also willing to participate in its management, as well as its management, and itFunding activities (this is very important).

Once again, I have unexpected gains.Occasionally, I will be invited to serve as the chairman. One of the primary tasks of this position is to raise money, and this task in turn helps me to establish a close relationship with more people in the United States and business community.

There are endless things about bad accidents.But I gradually understand that there are still many good accidents.My efforts in a field (such as strengthening fiscal responsibilities) will make work income in other fields, such as winning more business for my company, or making a group of new friends.

Loyalty to your own principles, your own heart, your own moral standards

The 5th class is particularly important.It cares about how our life is going.

My parents let me know how important loyalty to my own principles, my heart, and their moral standards.Because of their teachings, I dare to say "no" to those who are not worthy of me.Although these "no" will obviously bring some short -term losses, in general, long -term returns will eventually occur.

I hope I can say that I can always abide by my own principles, but I did not do this twice.Once in MIT, I stole Roy Cohen's thesis.My excuses are very stingy: I lament that this rural boy from Nebraska can finally embrace the new social life given by New York, and I also quibble that I did not actually "really" plagiarize his papers because I also joined separately"A lot" yourself.I have vowed not only to be honest with others, but also to be honest with myself.This time I obviously violated this principle and paid the price for this, and it was very painful.

The other time was in the Lehman brothers. I have been silently tolerated some of the behaviors that should not be tolerated by several partners, because I take care of "getting along with each other" and maintaining short -term interests.

In these two incidents, there are short -term benefits and enjoyment, or they can avoid some short -term pain, but they are at the expense of some important long -term interests.

On the contrary, when I adhered to the vow to abide by the principles, even if it was uncomfortable at the moment, long -term interests may be satisfied.My life experience confirmed this without exception.

In a series of important turning points in my life, I can simply say "no".I feel that I have sufficient reasons to say no. This may be the instability of moral factors, or it may be the character of the supervisor or decision maker in the intuition, or the feasibility of the project is questionable.

For example, McKinsey has a boss who erodes the company's pension fund, regardless of buying a large -scale special aircraft in the overall situation, stealing my work results, and instigating that I am a company chairman.But I resigned resolutely, although I haven't found a back road at the time.This was a very difficult decision at the time, but I never regretted it.

During the Nixon government, I insisted on maintaining my independent personality and refused to be used ruthlessly by the president like a pawn.I may not experience some extraordinary events, but I was able to get away before the "Watergate Incident" broke out.

At that time, I would annoyed some of my decisions. I was worried that adherence to principles would lead to a decline in my future.I was unstable at work, and I even had ugliness in front of the public.But in people's hearts, I am still upright, but after that, I encountered better job opportunities.

Let's say that, the words "No" I said to Nixon at the time pushed me into the abyss, but in fact it was not the case.In fact, I was reborn because of this.

In the White House where Nixon entered the master, I found that working with people without common values than I thought.Now I have learned "easy to go into battle", that is, to avoid some psychological burdens on work in work, avoid letting you move independently and to adhere to your own moral standards.For example, during the Nixon period, the young staff in the White House turned around Holdeman was psychologically burdens on his stiff ideology and loose moral norms, so that he could not act according to his own thoughts.Some of them were eventually sent to prison.

It is difficult to implement it easily than I think.But looking at it, I know that doing this is correct.

Find a balance point that makes you healthy and happy in your career and personal life

Oh my god!In this regard, my experience is basically a negative textbook that has not found a balance point.I have experienced two divorces because I don't pay attention to anything except work and achievement.

Sometimes, recovering his life means that Qingyun's straight career trajectory will slow down.For myself, I know that refusing to be the president of Blackstone means losing more income.However, this also means that I can spend more time in Qiong and children, as well as my friends and various public policy affairs activities.I did this too.

No matter what specific adjustments we make, the most important basic principle is -not to think deeply, we will not analyze ourselves, or we don't know if it is impossible, and we will not choose if necessary.For most people, the balanced life is not easy.

Choose long -term interests

The content of the 7th lesson is a career advice.My personal experience tells me that don't be seduced by a job opportunity without clarifying the situation.You can't just find a job that can give play to your relative advantages. You also have to examine the shortcomings of corporate culture, because these shortcomings are lurking like mines and may destroy your career at any time.A comprehensive inspection of future employers can bring huge dividends and avoid many risks.If I did such a job before I entered Lehman, I would like to choose to join it from the beginning.

There are many places that need to pay attention to in the comprehensive inspection work before considering holding a senior position.Everyone usually considers the following points: What are the goals and value of this company?Is the political atmosphere strong here?In what aspects of this political meaning, what form exist?In addition to the high -level, do you also communicate with employees of the same level. How do they view your work?What do employees think about your joining?The conversion rate of this enterprise executive officer is high or low. If it is very high, what is the reason?Is the financial situation of this company healthy and stable?Does the company have other major legal disputes that have not been handled?

Looking back at the past, the opportunity I encountered finally became a topic of two -choice -the interests in front of me were still long -term interests.And my choice has always been -long -term interests.

The source of the article is taken from "The starting point of Blackstone, my vertices -the founder of Blackstone Peter Peter Sen"

Author: peter peterson

"High throwing and low suction, band operation" is the most familiar sentence we hear in the mouth of the stock critic.

This is a nonsense nonsense.

The reason why anyone wants to make money from the stock market, whether he is a value investor or a trend investor, whether he is a long line or a short line, he must do so to make money successfully.The reason for nonsense is that one is simply so no need to say, and the other is easy to do.Why is it difficult?Because we are not sure whether our future selling time point (note that this selling time point is not necessarily completely controlled by our subjective control) is higher than the price position corresponding to the time of our current buying time point.To put it simply, is our throwing point be higher than the suction point?In many cases we don't know.

—— The only important thing to invest is the certainty

One day, the wife and me told me that her colleagues were killed all day long, and they were so busy.I took out the calculator and simply calculated a figure for her: If a person can surely seize any stock even if 1%of the day is calculated by 260 trading days a year, his assets increase to 1.01 260The second side, about 13 times.If he has invested in 30 years.EssenceEssenceEssenceEssence

There are two key here. One is the power of compound interest, which allows the assets to increase geometrically, and the other is the permanent certainty.

If there is such a certainty, then the full warehouse+full leverage and even selling houses to borrow usury stocks are the only correct choice, and the earth will soon be his family.

Of course, there are no such people in the world.Although compound interest is a long -lasting law, no one has such a certainty.

The stock market has always had a dispute between value investment and trend investment.In my opinion, the two are not as good as fire.Everyone is pursuing the same thing -the certainty of investment.Value investors are based on all known information and estimates in the future. They estimate the inherent value of the enterprise, buy a large discount price, and hold it patiently, waiting for the price return or exceed of value exit.Trend investors pay close attention to the cooperation of the trend and transaction volume of messages, large markets, sections, K -line trend and transaction volume at the beginning of the trend and evacuated at the end of the trend.Both think that their methods are highly certain, and they are ultimately to achieve "high throwing and low suction, band operation".From this perspective, value investment is not necessarily long. As long as the goal is achieved, the band of value investment can also be short.Trend investment is not necessarily short -term. As long as the trend is unchanged, the band of trend investment can also be long.

Some people envy the gains of Shenbu.But you don't need to be envious.First of all, you can't choose in advance.Secondly, you dare not take heavy positions when you choose it.Third, you ca n’t hold it up, you ca n’t hold it if you fall. If you fall, you ca n’t hold it back. You must run (I believe many friends have a deep understanding of this “unable to hold”).The reason is one -you are not sure of it in your heart.

If you are certain, the stock market is a withdrawal machine.Gambling will win for a long time.

If you are not sure, the stock market is a meat grinder.Gambling will lose for a long time.

——What is the influence of definitiveness

Once is so important, we are pursuing hard and often can't get it.There are many factors here.The first of which is the shortcomings of the future.Regardless of value investment or trend investment, a lot of historical information is referred to.This information is included in the financial report, the K line, and the transaction volume.EssenceEssenceEssenceHowever, historical information cannot accurately predict the future. Whether it is the trend of performance or the trend of the stock price, it cannot be.Secondly, our subjectivity is defective.We personally cannot collect and use all historical information.Can not objectively analyze these historical information.Also, our world is full of random incidents.Occasionally contain inevitability of random events.But the manifestation of inevitability depends on a large number of, multiple and long -term spans.All kinds of random events may just be the chairman of the CSRC walk and fall, or we wore a handsome clothes tomorrow, or a tornado in Texas, USA may be in some unexpected paths and amplification effects.A decision to affect people's buying and selling stocks, thereby affecting the stock price.When we transactions at high frequency, it is difficult to be hedamed in the short term, and inevitability is hidden by accidental snow.

Unreliable, incomplete historical information, coupled with our subjective one -sided analysis, and then to the natural logical defects that infer the future from historical information, cooperate with the endless random events and our high -frequency transactions, our confirmation in the stock market determinesSex can be imagined.

—— How can we improve the certainty

Under the premise of recognizing and accepting uncertainty of the stock market, how can we improve the certainty of investment and make money for a long time?

There are two permanent things in the stock market: 1. Stock representatives to the company's ownership.If the time span is sufficient, the price of the stock will eventually reflect the value of the company.2. Human nature is always collective greedy and fearful.Once the herd effect of greed and fear is established, the trend will not change in the short term.

These two permanent things are the basis for value investment and trend investment, and it is also the cornerstone of our investment in certainty."Every warrior, with positive combination, wins with strangeness." Value investment is positive, and trend investment is strange."Shouzheng is surprising" can improve the certainty of our investment.

Value investment tells us that we must be held patient after buying a money -making machine.The "discount" uses the herd effect of people's fear to reserve room for further decline in the stock price brought about by the poor uncertainty in the future."The reason why the" Money Makeup Machine "is a money -making machine is generally monopoly products, perfect user experience, excellent brand, efficient management, or both, then it continues to make a lot of money.. Finally, "patient holding" is to give time to the inevitability emerge from accidentality.

Trend investment tells us not to move against the trend, and take advantage of the trend.The water rose high, and the water was low.The broader market is all known after we came, but we knew that it was enough, but this was enough.By the way, everyone is attentive, and we pay great attention when the transaction is light.(Do not use Qianlong, see the dragon in the field); everyone hesitated, and we didn't care about it.(Or jump in Yuan, no blame); everyone pays attention, and we are highly nervous when the price rises.(Flying Dragon is in the sky, Kanglong regrets).Is the same as everyone who operates like everyone and chase and fall, but do not predict the trend, especially the short -term trend, but to complete our own operation with the results of the trend, and to increase our certainty with the results of the trend.The market is unpredictable, but the market's water level and the temperature of the human heart can be perceived.

According to the essence of stocks in the stock market and human nature, we can refer to the principles of value investment and trend investment, establish a set of our own operating system to maximize the certainty of our investment:

Just use idle money.The so -called idle money is the money you can use in the next 3 to 5 years or even more.The money that meets this principle is leisure.If the income is stable, the expenditure is limited, there are cars and houses, and insurance education and medical care are guaranteed, then the proportion of free money can be defined as high.Due to the various uncertainty in the future, we cannot determine our time.With just leisure, you can ensure that when we are not in a hurry to use money, passively determine our time of selling.Leisure money can make us more calm and more frankly facing various accidents.This is a principle that Peter Lynch has repeatedly educated us.

Do not borrow money without leverage.Learn will enlarge uncertainty, but will not magnify the certainty.More uncertainty may make us get additional benefits and may also get additional losses.Leverage is a certain natural enemy.We must cherish the certainty we managed to build, and we must stay away from leverage.

Do not build positions in the bull market."Anyone who is in the battlefield first and treats the enemy, and the battlefield is fighting. Therefore, the good warriors will not cause people." In the bull market, the people who make a lot of money in the bull market are full of people in the bear market.The habit of most people is to gradually increase their warehouses in the process of gradually establishing the bull market, becoming an inverted pyramid investment.In the end, a large amount of funds were added to Gao Gang.This is not a good trend, but against the trend.Do not go there in many places.The bull market is used to sell stocks, not for buying stocks.The bull market is an additional reward, but it is not necessary for investment."Tianxing has often, does not survive for Yao, and does not die."The bull market will definitely come, and the bear market will definitely come.It is overwhelming and endless.

An only company betting for you.If what a company is doing, where is its market, what is its advantages and disadvantages, what is its product, how is its technology, what is its user experience, what is its travelingWhat is its managers, what is its shareholders, and the worst situation of its worst in the next three to five years will not be clear.Knowing it is definitely better than not knowing, and the certainty is higher.This is the ability circle."Knowing the confidant, never fighting all the battle; I do n’t know the other confidantes, one victory and one loser; I do n’t know if I do n’t know myself, I will lose every battle.”

After thinking about it, you will bet, and you can retire if you know Jin.Many friends have this feeling, and others recommend a stock to buy any stock.But I can't hold it, I don't know when to run.Zi said: "Unknown life, know how to die?" In this case, our certainty of this stock is only from our confidence in the recommender.And this confidence is often extremely fragile.Either the stocks recommended by others, or the stocks that they accidentally discovered, can be included in the scope of observation.But it must be thought after thinking about it.I know when to advance, when Fang knows when.

Do the concentration of concentration or confrontation of uncertainty.If you have a concentrated certainty, put the eggs a basket, that is, full warehouse, heavy warehouse, optimistic about it.If you can use dispersion confrontation uncertainty, put the eggs in multiple baskets and optimize them.Diversion is a way to fight uncertainty, but the concentration is the same.Some people are scattered to confront uncertainty, but some people are decentralized but decentralized.Some people focus on improving the certainty, but some people are concentrating to improve uncertainty.Therefore, concentration and decentralization are just forms, it doesn't matter right or wrong.As long as you feel practical, comfortable, and natural.For me, I only hold one stock, and I can maintain a high degree of acuity.At the end of 2008, the full warehouse held Yili after the melamine, and it was not moved until early 2014. All the warehouses were changed and the warehouse was full.Maybe I will miss a lot of "opportunities", but I seize the certainty I can seize, temporarily seeing more than 20 times the benefits, and avoiding more possible risks.For ordinary retails like us, I suggest that it is better to concentrate.At least it is difficult for me to catch the height of more than two at the same time, and it is difficult to take care of five or six or even a dozen stocks at the same time.

Do not make short -term transactions.There are three harmful parts of short -term trading: a lot of handling fees in white, increasing the transaction cost.Secondly, the frequent transactions of short -term trading have not enough time span to iron the accidentality, which makes the inevitability not reflect, and the certainty is gone.Occasionally 360 degrees, they projected in the direction of the stock price, forming a joint force.Massive accidents will be heed on this axis, and inevitability emerge.If there is no massive, we are only accidental.Third, it is also the most important. The short -term frequent transactions have lost their impetuous people's hearts, which makes people see that trees and even leaves do not see forests."The emphasis is light roots, the quietness is the monarch. If the light is losing the root, the losing the monarch." The decisions made when we are happy or panicked, it is difficult to say that it will be rational and correct.I used to go to the dinosaur Bay of Hawaii.Dinosaur Bay is a very calm bay surrounded by land.The depth of water is 1 to 2 meters, and the waves are not shocked.But once when I swim to the offshore about 50 meters away, the waves there are so powerful.I was pushed to the reef by waves, and both knees were scratching several places, and blood flowed.I couldn't control my body at all, very panic, and felt that I was going to die.But when I was so easy to return to the shore, I stood up and saw it, but I only saw a calm water surface.Similarly, when we were frightened for a day of skyrocketing, we stood a little taller and looked far away.Don't let the stock price move your heartstrings.

Do not do T, do not avoid the callback."Greek words are natural, the wind does not end, and the rain is not all day long."It is the same reason that not to do T and not to do short -term frequency transactions.It is actually a nature that can be the short of T+0 and the bulls that can do T+1.I never feel that I can foresee the definition or even deepen, so I never do T. T flying my chips and lost my chips.Some friends said that when the market plummeted, wouldn't it kill?Even if you look at the low position first, then get it back?Unfortunately, no one can predict that the market will plummet someday. We all see that it has plummeted.So the callback is not to avoid, but to avoid it.Moreover, I believe that everyone has seen a large number of stocks in a large market, or the deep V -shaped reversal of the deep V -shaped in the morning and the rise in the afternoon in the morning.The shorter the time span, the less certainty.In this case, killing or doing T, often just selling its own cheap chips.Even if it is right, the low position is taken back, it is just good luck, and it has nothing to do with the certainty.There is a saying, "If you have never misused the plane, then you must waste a lot of time at the airport." The same is true of the stock market. "If you can always avoid the callback, then you will sell your own cheap timeI have missed more gains. "It is enough to make only the money you can see. If you always want to avoid short -term callbacks, the money in the large band must be earned, and the money in the small band also wants to eat. In fact, in fact,It is a kind of insufficient greed.For this oversized -level callback from the apex point of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, it is more determined to see the performance. Be sure to avoid it and do not go through.

Don't be empty.Since the principle of value investment and trend investment can bring us some certainty, of course, it can bring us some empty certainty.But we never short.There are two major natural risks.The first is to reverse the essence of the company's survival. The survival of the company is inherently profitable, and the short life is anti -life.Second, the greed of human nature may be beyond our imagination, and there is a great risk of liquidation.The biggest risk of doing more is the lower limit, that is, all the principal lost all the principal.The risk of shortness is theoretically incompetent.Not short does not mean that it cannot be empty.As mentioned earlier, when it is determined that when the large -scale large span is empty, you must learn to come out.Small -level small span empty, I think it is not sure to see it.

Be prepared for long -term holdings."First, it is incurable, to wait for the enemy."All the front is "first", and the back is to "be able to win the enemy."Buffett said that he didn't want to hold a stock for ten years, and don't hold it for ten minutes.The meaning of Ba Lao does not mean that you have to hold it for ten years, or even say that you have to hold your shares for a long time, but that you have to prepare for long -term holdings."The soldiers are not abnormal, and the water is not normal." If the goal of value investment is achieved or exceeded within a few days, it is time to run.It's just that this situation is extremely rare."Endlessly, you can win the enemy." In most cases, the return or foaming of value is a long -term process, which may be up to a year to several years.In this process, you need to bear loneliness and quit urgent forbearance.

The stock price is layered, making four money in the stock market.The first is to use human fear to earn money to recover the company's valuation.At the same time, it also reserves a safe pad.The second is to use stocks to represent the ownership of the company and earn money to make the company's profit growth.The third is to use human greed and earn money to tell the company to blow bubble valuation bubble money.The boundaries of these three money are not completely clear.The fourth way is in the first three ways, which is the money that conforms to the trend and earns market water levels.These four wallets contain Davis Double Kill and Davis Double -click, and also contains Soros' anti -body theory.If these four money considers each of us before we bet, considering that it will be clear whether we make the four money of others, or our betting becomes one of these four money.Intersection"If the husband is fighting, the temple is a winner, and there are more than a lot of winners; the one who does not fight the temple is not the winner, and the count is less.It is highly certain, so it is a very probability event that we will make money in this bet.Waiting for this kind of betting, you also need to quit urgent tolerance.As for how much the four money will reach, it is not something we can predict.We only need to check the original buying reasons and the current shareholding reasons from time to time during holding.The yield and the principal should not be correlated, unless the amount of our principal has reached the extent to affect the stock price.Taking a principal of 10,000 yuan and 10 million yuan, the degree of prudential and operational procedures should be exactly the same.

Stop loss and profit.There are two different cases of stop loss. The first situation is the time when the newly bet on a new bet.At this time, a new investment starts, and the bet includes past profit.At this time, historic profit should not be regarded as a floating profit, but should be regarded as part of the principal.I will stop loss to the principal.The principal stop loss represents the mistakes, which means that the reason for the finding of the purchase is wrong, and the investment fails.Another situation is that it has risen and even fell after the floating profit.As long as the reason for the buying when I bet is still there, I will not stop loss because of the decline in Fuding, because it is not damaged.Just like never buying stocks just because of the stock price rising, never sell stocks just because the stock price is falling.Regarding Zhiying, "holding and profiting is worse than its.When reviewing the reason for buying the original purchase has been realized, and there are no new reasons, especially when the four money above earns more than three and a half, or a certainty large -level large -span short -to -empty event occurs.At that time, you can consider the profit.Otherwise, not to make a profit.How many times the stock has risen is never the reason for selling.Because the stock does not know I hold it.

Reduce the number of bets, and the bet has decided to succeed.There are no more than 10 bets for a lifetime.Many people bets more than 10 times a week.Many people think that the moment of selling decides success or failure, or buying and selling together to determine success or failure.I always think that the moment the bet has decided to succeed!"From the temple to count the view, see the victory and defeat."Betting is a high risk.High -risk things, the less the number of times the better.If you can not fight, don't fight.If you have to fight, you must win fiercely, and you must eat heavy positions from beginning to end.Even if it is only a chance to turn, the 10th power of 2 is 1024 times, even if there is only a principal of tens of thousands of yuan, it is enough to be financially free.However, how many people don't look down on the chance of doubling the certainty (such as last year's liquor, bank), chase the uncertain 10 -fold opportunity, and go to the high spiritual tension to make the band T+0, try to tryAvoid every wave of waves ...

In the four words "Don't lose money", Babao contains thousands of words.These four words are worth reading 10,000 times."The good warrior can be indispensable, and the enemy must not be able to win. The victory can be known, but the victory soldiers first and then seeking the battle, the defeat of the soldiers first and then seeking victory."The above methods are doing the same thing: improve the certainty of no money every bet, try to avoid the uncertainty of the bad, and to prepare for the uncertainty of uncertainty that is difficult and unexpected.Essence

The stock market is full of uncertainties, and we can win our certainty to win.The essence of stocks and the essence of human nature has remained unchanged in the stock market. It is the basis for value investment and trend investment, and it is also the cornerstone of our investment certainty.

Every gambling will win+compound interest law = long gambling will win.

I wish you all win every gambling, and you will win for a long time.

There are various reasons for failed transactions, but successful transactions always have similarities.We always see or hear the story and experience of successful traders. Whether it is George Soros, or Nicholas Dasavas, the principle of many successful traders has experienced the experience of time.through.Relying on these great traders can help you take less detours to gain profit.Many people who are far from these transaction principles have proven that failure can be very close.

We have summarized the good habits of 7 successful traders:

1. They have an attachment to success.Many best traders can exclude difficulties, learn lessons from errors and failures, and then insist on the type of people who succeed.

2. Successful traders know how to withdraw from failed transactions in time.They can accept their wrong facts and not be occupied by their own psychology, which is the key to leading themselves and career success.

3. In the transaction time box, make the successful transactions lasting as long as possible, and ensure that the profit is sufficient to exceed losses.

4. Avoid allocating some funds on each transaction.If you often take such risks, then you will eventually lose all the funds.

5. Each profitable trader responds to real -time price fluctuations, rather than predict its future trend.It is more practical to obtain a transaction signal from price fluctuations.Trading at the forecast price activity is just wishful thinking.

6. Good traders watched the bull market and loses in the bear market until the market was called back.

7. Successful traders are thinking of profit.Prove that you are correct, show off, or predict the future trend, these are not comparable to the prompt sound of money entering the account.

No one likes failure, we are trying to build some positive and positive things.We hope to walk along the right path forever, but always goes against their wishes, and sometimes it is inevitable to enter the misunderstanding.

If you want to keep profitable in the transaction, you should also avoid the following 7 bad behavior habits:

1. Putting the failed transaction results due to the external environment, this is undoubtedly a devastating behavior.High -frequency traders, market -owned and irrational markets can easily make no principled traders making reckless transactions.The less we realize the responsibility they should bear, the greater the possibility of their transaction continuing to fail.

2. No plan trading, making decisions by feeling is definitely the worst.Let the views and forecast guidance enter the venue, and when emotional, it will definitely lose your funds quickly.

3. Trade first, and then learn how to trade, the order is completely upside down.If traders do not do enough homework before the transaction, they will learn lessons in the market, and the funds of losses will become expensive tuition fees.

4. Too self -self and desire to prove that you are correct, rather than paying attention to profit and loss, it will only accelerate the disappearance of funds.

5. Fight with the market trend and deny the actual price fluctuations, so the funds quickly contributed to those who follow the trend.

6. No principles, no risk management, no matter how good the trading system or method is, traders will still fail.

7. Except for transactions, there is no other fun in life, and relatives, friends, and health are lost. Only the transaction results have become the standard for measuring self -worth, which can easily cause spiritual and emotional collapse.

The road to success needs to avoid these bad habits.Successful traders and failed traders take different behaviors as boundaries, either to correct bad behaviors to get rewards or continue to destroy.This is something that every trader should stop.

(I have a limited level, but I just write some text in Banmen. Please ask friends to contain a lot, and I do n’t hesitate to correct it.)

Asset shortage, this is the inevitable result of the overall currency loose, while the average income of physical operations and financial investment has decreased.If there are more money and more benefits, there are more money, and the money can naturally invest, and there will be no asset shortage; if there is less money, even if there are very few places that can get better benefits, there will be no asset shortcomings.Because there is not so much money that needs to be configured; if there is less money, there are more places that can get better benefits, it is easier to solve. You can increase the currency through the central bank's money and bank loans.There are very few good returns, and asset shortcomings will appear.

After the stock disaster in 2015, the financial industry began to severely deleveraging. At the same time, P2P was cleaned up, the spot electronic disk was rectified, bank interest decreased, and fixed -income structured products were also difficult to issue; in terms of real economy, although some new economy, although some new economies are in some new economiesThere are highlights, but the sporadic highlights are not enough to illuminate the entire land; the restrictions on foreign investment have also increased.As a result, the asset shortage "forced" social funds to a large plate that can bring better expected benefits, that is -real estate.As a result, housing prices in first -tier cities have risen, and the historical tasks of destocking are glorious, and even individual cities have to enter the replenishment cycle.

However, before and after the National Day in 2016, major cities introduced a super severe real estate purchase restriction policy, which led to a great discount on the fund absorption ability of real estate.The problem of asset shortage is stimulated.

Where will the funds flow in the next step?

——Sherock market and market!

Only when the plate is large enough can we absorb funds flowing in due to assets, and under the environment of governing the country according to law and strict supervision, a formal, credit -ending channels that the central government endorses can allow everyone to invest in reassuring funds.The stock market and the market have played the role of who I am!

The stock market can absorb a lot of funds. On the one hand, the investment value of some stocks after the stock market disaster is highlighted, and on the other hand, the flow of funds in the stock market is conducive to the operation of listed companies and the national team gradually withdraw from.

The futures market (commodity futures) can absorb a lot of funds. On the one hand, the price of the product has finally got rid of the decline cycle for several years and enters the rebound or reversal cycle.Below, futures have become more investors and investment institutions that actively choose or passive choices; third, theoretically, the capacity of the futures market can be very large, and the futures are not like stocks.The number of positions of a futures contract can be theoretically generated.

As a result, under the inflow effect of funds, the stock market may enter slow cows, and commodity futures may continue to be hot, so that under the profit effect, the funds will continue to enter the stock market and the market.

Shen Liang [Qihe.com • Jugglers/Leading Fortune] Editor -in -chief of www.7hcn.com

  Financial writer Shen Liang WeChat has been online, welcome to scan the code to follow

On October 21, 2016, Professor Robertc Merton, the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997, held an expert forum in Beijing for the invitation of the China Securities Investment Fund Association.Before the meeting, the Association invited Professor Merdon to communicate with senior management of six fund institutions including Huaxia, Huashang, Yifangda, Jianxin, ICBC Credit, and Chongyang.Professor Melton said that the most important thing is to build trust in the asset management industry to survive and develop.

1. Trust is a strategic asset of the asset management industry.

The asset management business is very complicated, and it is essentially based on the subjective judgment of the investment manager.Because we cannot let investors fully understand how the fund investment tools are produced and what the investment operation is a process.Investors are also unable to understand what efforts and costs they pay for fund practitioners when providing investment management services, and they cannot judge our quality of work well.For example, my knee needs surgery and choose a attending doctor; a doctor hopes to win my choice through transparent surgery.He explained to me step by step, research progress, discipline background, surgical process, and condition that may occur after knee surgery.But in fact, these things are still difficult to understand for ordinary patients like me.Finally, the choice of patients is often based on his trust in doctors or hospitals.Asset management services are similar to medical services and cannot be completely transparent.Therefore, investors often rely on trust to choose the manager.

After the financial crisis in 2008, a major trend we observed was that people lost confidence in relatively opaque active investment methods, and chose more transparent information indexes or passive investment methods.But I think that transparency is not trust, and transparency is at most trust substitutes.In recent years, financial technology (Fintech) is changing with each passing day and has become a hot concept.However, I don't think the advancement of technology will naturally establish trust, and asset management institutions must create asset management methods that can build trust with investors.This is the core.

Once trust is established, it will form a strategic competitive advantage.Asset management institutions no longer need to obtain customers through price warfare, and investors are more willing to accept new ideas, new products and services of administrators.In the above -mentioned knee surgery examples, if I already have very trusted and cooperative doctors and hospitals for many years, I can perform surgery for me. At this time, another doctor and hospital holding relevant certificates will give me a lower price.Will you abandon your trust and familiar doctors and hospitals, but new doctors and hospitals who have a certificate that have a certificate and I don't know?Although the latter's price is lower, I will not take risks with my life.The same is true for the asset management industry.Once the two parties have established such trust, the business of asset management institutions can be continuously expanded, and investors have better services, which is a win -win situation.

2. Trust is equal to credibility and ability

The definition of trust includes two parts.The first is credibility and trustworthy.The second is the ability.The two are indispensable.I still take my knee surgery as an example. I will use my own life to trust my son. I believe he will always make a correct decision for my interests. He is worthy of my trust.But I won't let him have knee surgery for me because he has no ability.Therefore, investors trust a asset management institution. On the one hand, the two parties have a high degree of consistent interests and motivations, and on the other hand, investors have the ability to trust asset management institutions to provide services.

Trust in the asset management industry not only refers to the mutual trust between investors and asset management institutions, asset management institutions, and regulatory agencies, but also includes mutual trust between asset management institutions and regulators.Triangle is the most stable shape.I compare investors, asset management agencies and regulators to three points of triangle.Establishing good trust between these three is very important, which is beneficial to the market more effective operation, reducing costs, and promoting innovation.The operation and risk transfer of the capital market are very fast. The regulatory agencies must adhere to the principles of cautiousness and truthfulness and pragmatism, continuously strengthen their own capabilities, establish good regulations and mechanisms, ensure that the market is fair and honest, and ensure that the regulations and behavior rules are effectively implemented.So as to balance the transfer of income and risks, balance risks, and maintain the long -term stability and consistent vitality of the market.

3. The core of establishing trust is to maintain the same interests as customers

Dimensional Fund Advisor (hereinafter referred to as DFA), who is a permanent scientist, has always insisted on practicing our perception of trust.At present, the company's asset management scale is about 450 billion US dollars, of which about 40%of the assets come from institutions and 60%come from retail investors.The company only sells its funds to retail sales through independent third -party financial consultants, but does not pay any sales expenses and does not provide revenue sharing for financial advisors, but has won considerable customer loyalty.60%-80%of the customer assets of many wealth management consultants have invested in DFA products for a long time. In the United States, the average level of financial consultants invested in a single asset management company is less than 10%.To do this, the company adheres to the following principles.

The first is to establish and adhere to long -term investment concepts.

DFA is a deep asset management institution with a deep background in financial research and has clear investment concepts and investment methods.The starting point of the company's investment method is the market price. It is believed that the market price reflects the fundamental value and the comprehensive expectations of market participants. It is difficult to obtain high market income from active stock selection.Investment is negatively-sum game.However, by using the information contained in the market price, combining fundamental data, and through decentralized investment portfolios and low -cost execution methods, it can systematically invest in higher expected securities, which can defeat the market for a long time.DFA adheres to the principles of market efficiency, adheres to long -term views, regards low -cost, integrated and systematic investment methods, and create long -term value for customers, rather than focusing on company performance.It turns out that DFA's investment strategy performance may not be prominent at a certain moment or short term, but long -term performance is leading in similar strategies, and it is one of the few companies that are less affected in the financial crisis.In the 35 years since the establishment of the company, the net inflow of assets has been maintained every quarter. Even in the 2008 global financial crisis, it remained net inflow, which was very rare.This concept looks simple, but few companies can actually follow suit.This requires faith and determination.

The second is to strictly screen financial consultants.

Before establishing a cooperative relationship with wealth management consultants, DFA must communicate with long -term front -end communication.The company must first hold a small explanation meeting to explain the company's basic investment concepts and investment methods.Then, the company should inspect the financial consultant to understand the investment philosophy of the consultant, whether it is consistent with the DFA investment concept, and how to communicate with the customer.In the end, DFA established a long -term trust and cooperative relationship with those wealth management consultants that consistent with their own ideas and faith.During the sales process, the financial consultant believes that the concept of DFA is beneficial to customers and the consultant themselves, forming a three -party consistent interest relationship.They will understand the market in the way of DFA, choose customers, and allocate customer assets.For example, when wealth management consultants are sold, they will directly provide customers with DFA's investment performance in the past 35 years. It does not exaggerate the process of gains, and does not avoid the loss in the process, and will explain the place where the customers question are clearly explained.Therefore, when customers invest in DFA strategies, they are very clear about what they will get and have reasonable expectations. Even if the financial crisis appears, customers will not panic or angry.For financial consultants with only performance as a sales point, DFA will remove it from the cooperation list.

The third is the most reliable consultant of financial consultants.

For investors, investment experience and investment income are equally important.The asset management industry is afraid of losing customers because the price is too high.But in fact, customers to give up their current investment managers are also a very painful and cost -effective thing.However, the sales point of selling only investment performance is actually teaching customers to leave themselves.Because no one can keep the first, if he won the first place in this year's performance, he will win a client, then he may leave next year and turn to a new first place.Continuously help customers improve their awareness of wealth management, improve their financial management behaviors, create a good investment experience for customers, allow customers to have more sense of control over investment, help customers still maintain confidence in short -term gains and even losing money, so that retail investors canInvestment like institutional investors.The failure of investment is often abolished because of losing confidence.Therefore, DFA provides long -term guidance for each wealth management consultant, helps financial consultants evaluate models, formulate plans, arrange monthly or quarterly meetings to discuss investment and management issues, hold DFA academic report meetings, introduce new research, new products and new products and new products, andNew strategy.All these methods are to help wealth management consultants and customers adhere to the investment concept of belief and adopt DFA, and obtain the return on investment.In all cooperation, DFA does not pay any compensation to the financial adviser, and even these financial advisors pay their road fees and accommodation fees to participate in the DFA meeting.However, it is the trust and consistent interest relationship of each other that has formed a positive cycle between DFA, financial consultants and terminal investors to achieve a win -win situation of the three parties.

4. Enlightenment of my country's asset management industry

The success of DFA is inseparable from a comprehensive financial advisory system.According to the actual situation of my country's asset management industry, we believe that the development of wealth management consultants will help improve the current market status of market retail accountization, promote the healthy development of my country's market and asset management industry, and gradually mature.

First, it is conducive to establishing full trust between asset management institutions and investors, maintaining the stability of existing business, and helping asset management institutions and investors to establish long -term investment concepts and return to the essence of asset management.Let investors have confidence and willingness to try new products and services to provide space for the long -term development of the asset management business.

Second, it is conducive to implementing the principles and requirements of investors, helping all kinds of investors to clarify their needs, allocate the most suitable investment tools and resources, and finally enjoy the most suitable wealth management solution that suits them.

Third, it is conducive to transmitting investors' needs to asset management institutions, and promoting the development of asset management institutions to develop more diversified investment tools, improve market supply, and improve market efficiency.

one.Convert a idea to think about problems

A Jews walked into a bank in New York, came to the loan department, and sat down with a big model.

"Is there anything about sir?" While asking the loan manager, he looked at the coming people: luxurious suits, high -end leather shoes, expensive watches, and gemstone tie clips.

"I want to borrow some money."

"Okay, how much do you borrow?"

"$ 1."

"Only need $ 1?"

"Yes, only borrow $ 1. Can you?"

"Of course, as long as there is a guarantee, it's okay."

"Okay, can these guarantees be okay?"

The Jews said that they took a bunch of stocks, national debt, etc. from the luxurious leather bags, and put them on the manager's writing desk.

"A total of $ 500,000, is enough?"

"Of course, of course! But, do you really need to borrow $ 1?"

"Yes." Said, the Jews received $ 1.

"The annual interest rate is 6 %. As long as you pay 6 % interest, return one year later, we can return these stocks to you."


After the Jews finished speaking, they were ready to leave the bank.

The chief of the branch who has been watching cold eyes next to him, how can you not understand that people with 500,000 US dollars will come to the bank to borrow $ 1?He caught up in a panic and said to the Jews, "Ah, this gentleman ..."

"Is there anything?" "I really don't know, you have $ 500,000, why only borrow $ 1? If you want to borrow $ 30 or 400,000, we will be happy ..."

"Please don't worry about me. But before I came to your bank, I asked a few banks, and their rental boxes were very expensive. So, I am going to store these stocks at your bank.Just spend 6 beauty points. "

The storage of valuables should be placed in the safe of the vault according to common sense. For many people, this is the only choice.However, Jewish merchants were not trapped in common sense, but instead set a different approach to find a way to allow securities such as securities to enter the bank safe. From a reliable and insurance perspective, the two are indeed not much different, except for different charges.

Under normal circumstances, people are mortgaged for borrowing, and they always want to fight as much as possible with as little mortgage as possible.In order to ensure the safety or benefit of the loan, the bank never allows the borrowing amount to be close to the actual value of the mortgage. Therefore, there is generally only the provisions of the upper limit of the loan amount.The problem.Being able to drill this "empty" and change ideas and think about problems. This is the "smart" of the Jews in the way of thinking.

Good at changing ideas and thinking about problems, often get more opportunities for success.

2.Create wealth with wisdom

Many years ago, in the Oschovin concentration camp, a Jews told his son that now our only wealth is wisdom. When others say one plus one equal to two, you should think of greater than three."Nazis died of hundreds of thousands of people in Oschitin, but the father and son survived.

In 1946, they came to the United States to do copper business in Houston.One day, what was the price of a pound of copper in his father?The son answered 35 cents.The father said, "Yes, the entire Cosstan knows that the price of copper per pound of copper is 35 cents, but as a Jewish son, it should be said to be $ 3.5. You try to make a pound of copper as a door."

Twenty years later, his father died, and his son operated a bronze shop alone.He has been a bronze drum, a reed on the Swiss watch, and the medal of the Olympic Games. He has sold a pound of copper to $ 3,500. At this time, he is the chairman of McCawal.However, it was a bunch of garbage in New York State.

In 1974, the U.S. government bidded the society extensively to the society in order to clean up the waste and drop the waste from the statue of the Liberty.But several months have passed and no one responds to the bid.When he was traveling in France, he immediately flew to New York. After seeing the copper blocks, screws and wood accumulated under the goddess of Liberty, he did not mention any conditions, and immediately signed.

Many transportation companies in New York secretly smiled at this stupid move of him, because in New York State, garbage treatment has strict regulations, and it will be prosecuted by environmental protection organizations.Just when some people were looking at the Jewish jokes, he began to organize workers to classify waste.

He melted the waste copper and cast it into a statue of a small free female. Machining the cement block and the wood of the wood; the waste lead and the waste aluminum were made into the keys to New York Square.In the end, he even wrapped the gray from the goddess of Liberty and sold it to the flower shop. In less than 3 months, he made the pile of waste a $ 3.5 million in cash, and the price per pound of copper turned over.10,000 times.

Children born in the Jewish family In their growth process, almost all mothers in charge of enlightenment education asked them to answer a question: "If one day your house is burned, your wealth will be grabbed, thenWhat will you escape with something? "The children are more or not, naive and ignorant, and naturally think of the good thing of money, because there is no money, how can I eat and play with it?Some children also said that they would run with diamonds or other treasures. With it, what was missing?But these are obviously not the answers that mothers want.They will ask further: "There is a baby with no shape, no color, and no smell, do you know what it is?" If the children can't answer, the mother will say, "Child, you have to take away money, and you are not money, and you are not money, and you are not money, and you are not money.Not diamonds, but wisdom. Because wisdom is unable to grab anyone.

As long as you live, wisdom will always follow you."In the eyes of smart and savvy Jews, everything is valuable and can be recovered. Only wisdom is the priceless wealth of life.

The Jews are not smart than those of any race, but they know how to cast this priceless gold coin.When their children are just sensible, the mother will drip honey on the book and let the child go to the honey on the book. The intention is to tell the child: the book is sweet.

Wisdom is eternal wealth, it guides people to success, and will never be poor.

1. "Making money, discounts and accidents that rely on normal values and accidents."

Like other great investors, Soros is very concerned about "expected value".The expected value is equivalent to the average weight value of potential investment results.A different investment concept that is different from most people is wise only when the value is positive.On the one hand, Soros can make huge bets than other investors.On the other hand, there is no fundamental difference between Soros and other investors in the processing process.

2. "The financial market is usually unpredictable, so an investor needs to have a variety of pre -scenarios."

The market is "sometimes" predicted, but this does not mean that the market is "always" unpredictable.If an investor is very patient and can wait for a chance to successfully bet the pricing deviation, then he can defeat the market.

3. "The most difficult thing to judge is: what level of risk is safe is safe."

Risk is the possibility of losses.There are three situations that must face: a. Sometimes you know the natural characteristics and possibilities of risk events (such as throwing coins); b. Sometimes you only know the characteristics of this event, but you doSpecify the price within 20 years) c. Sometimes you are unclear even if you may even hurt your events in the future (such as malignant black swan incidents).

Soros once said that these decisions were made in a certain environment. This environment may be: you have many feedback circuits, some of which are positive, and some are negative.In most periods, the unconventional price model prevails; but in individual cases, the development of some foam has released its entire potential, so that the role of other influencing factors is covered.

The best way to want "safe" is to have a "safe margin".

4. "You are right or wrong are not the most important. The most important thing is how much money you can make when you are right and how much will you lose when you are wrong."

The most important thing for an investor is "the order of correctness", not how high is the "correct frequency".

5. "It is not available to having self -confidence or smaller positions."

If you have a high probability in a bet, then bet on it.When Soros felt that he was right, almost no investors could pay greater bets than him.

6. "I only go to work when I have a reason, and I am really doing things on the day of work."

It will cause a lot of costs and errors to maintain a busy transaction state.Sometimes it is often the best thing that investors can do.

7. "If the investment is a kind of entertainment and recreation, if you get fun from it, then you may not make much money. Really good investment is boring."

If you are very excited because of investment, then you may be gambling, not investment.It is best not to treat yourself as a gambler, not the best way to not treat yourself as a gambler: only bet on you when the chance is beneficial to you.

8. "If you want to reflect the future price, then the current market price is always wrong."

Soros is obviously not a believers in Efficient Market Hypothesis.This is not surprising, because if the market is always efficient, he will not become rich.

9. "The market can affect the events it expects."

This sentence actually refers to the "self -anti -nature" theory of the market.In Soros's view, the market and people's views on the market are interacted.

"There is a two -way self -resistance between cognitive and reality," said Soros. This is a process that initially promotes self -enhancement, but eventually leads to self -defeating, or it can be said to be a bubble. Each foam is every foam.It is formed by an interaction of a trend and a wrong concept in a self -countermeasure. "

10. "In actual life, there are few real balance -market prices are always used to fluctuating."

Balance is the foundation of many macroeconomicists' assumptions, but Soros believes that equilibrium is actually an illusion.Balanced can make mathematical calculations perfectly, but often does not conform to the facts.

Soros once said: "Economic thinking needs to start considering the policy issues of real world, rather than simply creating more mathematical procedures." Soros's investment view is not based on rationality.For example: "When the long -term trend loses the kinetic energy, the short -term volatility will often rise, the reason is simple -those who follow the trend cannot find the direction at this time."

Soros also believes that "the process of prosperity-collapse is asymmetric in the form: a long-term and gradual prosperity is often a rapid and brief collapse."

11. "Economic History is an endless stage and lies, not truth."

Being able to explain the events that happened in the past does not mean that this explanation is correct or the foundation of a certain theory can be used to predict the future.Human beings have a disadvantage of "smart afterwards."

"Soros must re -think economic theory from beginning to end, because the models supported by those efficient market hypothesis and rational selection theory are actually bankrupt, similar to the bankruptcy of the global financial system after the Lehman brothers."

12. "I am rich just because I know when I was wrong. I basically came down because I realized my mistakes ... we should realize that human beings are like this: wrong and not shameless, not corrected correction, cannot be correctedMy mistake is lost. "

(1) The starting point is low, the point is high, and the steps are gradual.

Let's start with our project.

Our project, 75 people, and about 15 Chinese people.It is strange that there are always a few men and women in our class, especially he is proud.There is no one who speaks, and there is an inexplicable sense of superiority in the bones.Yes, these people may often comfort themselves. New York University, the top ten economics, the master's degree in economics can also choose any lesson in the Stern Business School of New York University in the United States.

Knowledge gives people's strength, ignorance also gives people, and often greater power.Boxer is typical.

The members of the righteous group often have some sense of superiority during class.Especially for economics courses, basically not mathematics (theoretical) or statistical (empirical).Chinese students have a strong computing ability, and these ignorant people have once again added a sense of superiority.When American students scratched their ears and scratched their cheeks, Yu Guangzhong of the Boxer was always so excited."You don't understand this, I have learned in my freshman year."

However, with the course of the course, the members of the Yimei team began to realize what is strong and quality education.

In this semester, there are three compulsory courses, Mathematical Economics, Economics, and Macroeconomics.However, New York University and economics -related teachers, the best at Stern Business School, gave MBA lessons.

If the teacher at New York University won the Nobel Prize in Economics, the highest probability is the Department of Mathematics, followed by the business school.(Look at the building of the Department of Mathematics. In the main campus, the Department of Mathematics is the most aggressive school in New York University. It has completely covered the adjacent business school and law schools on the same street.)The professor of class is the top expert in the United States.

In the economic discipline, the second -class teacher is the teacher of the Department of Economics for doctoral and undergraduate teachers.To be honest, the teachers for masters for classes are the unknown people of "Non Body" compared to these big cows. They are generally experts from the Federal Reserve, or they were once Federal Reserve experts.Some of these teachers have made us more and more shocking the quality of education in the United States.

The teacher of our mathematical economics is Hodge. He is a PhD in the University of Chicago and was once a financial expert in Hewlett -Packard and Microsoft.Basically from the most basic linear algebra and calculus, mathematical economics truly reflects the characteristics of the "starting point low and high point" of American education.How to say, China has the best "abstract algebra" (or "modern generation") textbook (abstract algebra is the forefront and peak of the algebra, the subsequent advanced courses of "linear algebra" at the university stage), and Professor Zhang Ruihe 1948I wrote at Peking University in the year, and the author wrote like this at the forefront:

"It only requires the knowledge of high school algebra, but after a semester training and learning, students can understand the cutting -edge papers." The mathematical economics we are learning now is almost characteristic.

Teacher HODGE, there are not many lessons in each lesson, two hours, follow the seduction, but you can always hit the most important pest of knowledge, and then quickly bring you to the forefront.After a lesson, you will "oh", it turns out to be like this.

For example, the most basic Klaim law and reversibility of the linear algebra, which have been calculated in the country, only to know that these simple rules can analyze various models in the economy. You can understand it immediately. So many complexity is so complicatedThe frontier thesis was based on such a simple basis.Last week, I learned infinite levels. In China, I saw that there was no headache.

Teacher HODGE, briefly, how did this formula come? By the way, here I feel "oh".Because, in China, we know that the number of levels of hard -to -memorize a large number of stackers, and then solve the various remote topics. Now we suddenly understand what this level is going to speak.

Next, Mr. HODGE used this formula to analyze how to use the tool to analyze the various financial pricing models.Saying here, I suddenly realized.When I took the CFA level, I memorized a formula for death. The original formula came like this and this meaning.It can be said that the second pulse of Ren Du was opened at once.After six weeks, you not only understand those who seem to be unattainable in China, but also use it soon.For example, micro -scores and so on.

Remember that when the first class of economics was measured, our old lady of McCarthy used gestures to metaphorize, "Many of you only learned primary statistics, but we have to bring you to the measurement economy in two semesters.The forefront of learning, so we want ... ... ".She made a gesture, walked from one end of the blackboard to the other, and the height of her hand was getting higher and higher, and finally surpassed her head."So, we must bring you to this height in the gradual learning."

Yes, domestic teaching is a lack of such a process.In other words, domestic teachers lack the grasp of the teaching content itself.

For example, I have listened to the "Intermediate Micro Economics" of Mr. Pingqiao at Peking University.It can be said that Mr. Ping Xinqiao's intermediate micro -intermediate micro is already the content of "advanced micro -micro -preliminary" abroad.What was the outcome?In class, everyone is a word, "difficult!" What about teaching effect?

Fortunately, Peking University is the best mind. A major push of the first prize of the Olympic competition, the college entrance examination champion in various places, so there are always 20%of people who can catch up.But what about 80%?Also, is this a correct guidance even for these 20%genius?

For those children who are naturally developed, they can learn without learning. Even if they can really run, they can really run all the way?

When you come to the United States, the biggest feeling is that the Chinese people have good computing power, but the basic concepts are not clear.This is mathematics and economics.Taking our measurement economics as an example, the time series analysis has been mentioned in many domestic undergraduate primary measuring economics, Panel data analysis.Moreover, statistical software is also used.Click a few times, you seem to have mastered the knowledge of cutting -edge economics.

Until we listened to the courses of teaching assistant Deniel (Latin America), even the righteous and group teenagers acknowledged that we were chaotic in domestic learning.

In the first section of the teaching assistant course, he brought the most basic linear algebra.The Boat of the Boxer kept protesting loudly with loudly.Because he wants to use this most basic knowledge to guide you to a cutting -edge content, that is, the optimization of the matrix, which is the basis of high -level metrical economics.

The teaching aid course mainly talks about the use of Stata.In fact, I will also click on the mouse a few times. Many good schools in China, such as Peking University, also requires learning STATA.However, Daniel does not tell you that the click is over.

Let's describe the variables first, the statistical results come out.But how is the computer calculated?What is the significance of calculation?The computer calculated the result of a interval inspection. He asked casually, "How does this standard error SE calculate?" Some people answered underneath, and someone answered."Really?" He asked, and then proved on the blackboard, the calculation formula of this standard deviation SE.

Last week, Daniel told us the test of the nested model.Not a few keys are over.He detailed the formula on the blackboard, and then analyzed the defects of the computer curing model, and wrote a computing program on the spot.After a few seconds, his results came out, and the calculation accuracy was better than the solidification program of the computer."oh!!!!!"

This is how our thinking is pioneered.Through training in teaching aid courses, we naturally learned to analyze computer models.Instead of clicking on the mouse like before.When doing homework these days, I habitually wrote some sentences.I always think about the results of the computer calculation.

After a few weeks, the group members of the Boxer group were also convinced.

The macro assistant is so powerful.The basic concept is clear, the degree of control.I have to admire.Our macro teacher wrote a lecture, which basically made great improvements on the basis of Romer.They have a basic concept to build a strict system that macroeconomics like microeconomics.

Therefore, their lectures are extremely strict.After each course, I have different emotions, and I have risen to a level through training thinking.However, the teaching assistant Stela (either Latin Americans or Italians) is better than the teacher. He can always make the teacher's lesson in less than half an hour to make it clear, and it is clearer.It turned out that for us, we found that this is the same.

(2) Doctoral education and Chinese doctoral education

Seeing our two powerful assistants.We really admire them more and more.Make emotion, doctoral education in the United States is awesome.

I remembered that I studied at Peking University.It is really miserable.

As the core course of the educational economics, the teacher graduated from the University of Southern California, rotten, bad.Nothing clearly.The lesson is a necessary non -sufficient condition as a good teacher.A teacher, even the course in his own professional field, is unclear (not the ability to express bad), can it be level?Is he a bad college who graduated?The University of Southern California is also the top 30 of American economics. In other words, it is also the top 30 in the world economics.Is it bad?

Northwest University is always awesome, the first ten and five schools.Peking University teachs our professor of microeconomics. It is a doctorate in Northwestern University graduated from Northwest University and is a PhD in the Kelorg Business School of Northwest University.The test turned out to be unclear.

Why is it a PhD in American Bull School? The difference can be so big?

These two teaching assistants are also foreigners in the United States, and their accents are extremely serious.However, we still sound so comfortable.I finally understand that the only explanation is that the doctoral education in the United States is just a small probability that there are times. However, unfortunately, the secondary products have returned to China.Therefore, there are many doctoral doctors who graduate from famous American universities, but they rarely make similar achievements to their American doctoral classmates.

Note that it is similar to their American classmates.

(3) The basic positioning of a person is occupational relationship: teachers and students

Last Monday, the macro teacher sent an email to everyone's mailbox, saying that there was something to go after class and could not answer the question. I was very sorry.You can answer our question at his special question time or another time.

This is the education of the United States. Grandpa Kong once talked about "father and son, monarch and minister", and applied to describe American education: teachers and students.

The basic relationship between teachers and students is a kind of professional ethics. Teachers must answer student questions. This is obligation.In China, only excellent teachers can answer your questions several times.

I encountered a Chinese who had been studying in the country. He is now studying LLM in New York University Law School.He has the same feelings as me, and he gave a special but appropriate to describe the domestic teacher -student relationship: when the instructor told you to work, he was your father (father and son);

When you call your mentor for help, he is your enemy.

Therefore, in the United States, since the names of teachers and students have been determined -teachers and students are born, and teaching is the basic responsibility of teachers.When you are in class, you can raise your hand at any time (I have freedom at present, but I am not used to enjoying it)."There is no question of fool, only the fool's answer."

We specially selected a discussion course this semester.Teacher Wolf specializes in the US revenue distribution system. When he lists the deterioration of the economic conditions of Americans, he uses the proportion of debt owed assets.The results show that Americans have greatly increased their debt in recent years.Immediately a beauty refute, this cannot be established!

(Note that the words are very direct).why?Because, in the past ten years, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and the loan policy is particularly loose.The American people enjoyed the benefits of a large amount of low -interest loans, which shows that the liquidity of American families has increased significantly.

Grandpa Wolf is the undergraduate of Harvard, a PhD in economics of Yale, and is the typical excellent American whites, from childhood to large students.Deep, cold and humorous, but particularly boring.Grandpa Wolf suddenly stunned.After a few rounds, the grandfather had to admit that we could all adhere to our own point of view. Maybe Grandpa, I did conclude a bit a bit hasty. If you refute me, you can write this in your semester papers. Give your baby baby a one.Privilege, no need to write the specified thing.

"Any Questions?" It was almost every teacher's mantra.

This is a teacher and student, this is the basic professional ethics.

Look at our homework again.Each topic, the teacher has been carefully considered, and its goal is around the core concept and method of class.Especially the macro operation topic we just submitted.Two major topics, each topic of each topic, gradually deepen, each question is a training of thinking.After the two topics, the basic methods of the past few weeks, such as iteration, cross -term selection, Euler formula, etc., all of them are soaked in this.

After doing homework, you are also clear in the content of these four chapters.On the contrary, we have no homework at the University of Political Science and Law, and teachers cannot arrange homework because they have not thought about it.

At Peking University's economics, I have done similar assignments, but I can describe it.The lack of this grasp or grasp of the teaching process is purely a cope.

Therefore, Ayaka told me that the homework in the United States was really "awesome."The assignment is because the teacher is powerful, and the teacher is powerful because he has the right professional ethics.

(4) Besides, gradual and Chinese degree fever

Perhaps because the level of Chinese professors is too low, he can only put all what he understands and not understands.Therefore, it is difficult for undergraduate students to be close to the content of graduate students, and graduate students are very simple -close to undergraduate content, doctoral students do not learn at all.The professor lacks the deserved grasp of the learning content itself.

My student Jia Ying chose statistics as my second degree under my advice.According to the reason, she has learned any difficult content.However, a few days ago, I suddenly called me excitedly."The harvest is too big. In a school with a comprehensive ranking of 80, I did not expect that there was such a big gain. My own statistical studies are shit."

Classmate Jia Ying learned a doctorate in public policy in UTD, and the mathematics difficulty was nearly half of political science.Therefore, the requirements are very low.As quantitative methodology, they have to learn statistics in two semesters.For her, these statistical contents were all side dishes.However, she knew that her basic concept was so unclear.The so -called high -precision tip above this is purely nonsense.No wonder Zhu Jiaxiang of Peking University (my teacher I admire, a doctor of economics, but not a small probability sub -product, it belongs to a typical successful product) teacher said that there are few measurement and statistical use in domestic economics papers.Yes.

Undergraduates at New York University can directly study for master's degree without GRE scores.By communicating with them, I can more and more realize that it is gradual, the low starting point is high.Undergraduate students at New York University must first learn 6 credits of statistics in order to learn 4 credits of ethical economics.Most students are here,

Because you have mastered the core content.However, this is by no means that people are worse than you. You can choose 4 credits in time.If you still want to learn, there are 4 credits for the measurement economics discussion courses.You are still not satisfied, you can learn 4 credits for advanced economics.

In this way, you finally learned the level of doctoral students in the United States.Therefore, the outstanding undergraduate students of New York University do not need to read our master's degree at all, and it is not so necessary to apply for a PhD, unless he has to teach in the future.

On the contrary, what about China?Undergraduates have puzzled seedlings, graduate students are at a loss, and doctoral students are nonsense all day.The undergraduate does not have the foundation to make up for graduate students.In the end, there was no result.

This is the United States. It is effective in terms of different levels and needs.Undergraduates graduated from the United States can choose the courses they want to choose based on their interests, and then work directly.Excellent undergraduates, if you want to study research, go to the Graduate PhD (PHD).If you want to be a professional, go to the medical school for four years to get a medical doctor Medicine Doctor, or go to the court to study Juris Doctor for three years.Those undergraduates who have worked directly for undergraduates have accumulated enough experience in a few years, and come to MBA.The level is clear at a glance.

Education in the United States is cultivating people, people.Each level has its own clear goals, and has sufficient conditions to achieve this goal.Bi Jingwei is really a person who observes the ability. Through a few years of visiting Germany, he lamented, "Education and cultivating people are like cultivating plants. A plant must thrive and needs to be maintained. However, in China, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, youThere are no flower rooms, and no care. You can only get warm in the winter sun in the sun. How about the result, only God knows. "

(5) Pass the torch to the next generation

We are delayed generations.Our father -in -law went from the countryside to the city, and we went from a small city to a big city.The torch is to be passed on to the next generation, and we must let our younger generations go from China to the world.

The gap between us and the United States is decisive.

The gap between us and the outstanding Americans of our peers is also decisive (note that do not compare Chinese superior horses and the United States).I hope that one day, our younger generations can enjoy better educational resources than us.When he was undergraduate, he could do in the American class, and was friends and Aristotle as friends and Aristotle as friends and truth (Harvard school motto) with Plato, so that the free wind was bathing (Stanford school motto).He can receive Liberal Arts education, share wisdom from Socrates to Marx, and make his heart a free independent and rational person.

I hope they are not like our generation, and college education squeezes themselves into a small space and cannot choose.He can have multiple choices, and he has a chance to choose.

Thirty years later, they led their people to walk in the Red Sea!

My friends, my best friends.We walked together and we worked together.In the future, we will fight together.

If the following ten years are not glorious enough, we still have 20 years.If we have been mediocre for thirty years, we still have a new life of thirty years.Come on.

Trading on the left, that is, buying at the dips before reaching the lowest point, selling at a certain high (usually at the highest point at the highest point).Its advantage is that it is easy to grasp the details of the transaction, because the left transaction does not require the fish head to not be eaten, and the fishtail is not allowed to eat.In this way, the space of transactions and the profit of profit are much larger than the right, but the risks are relatively large.It is its disadvantage, that is, we may not be able to buy the lowest point, and there is a decline in the back.Or the highest point is not sold, and there is still rising.

Trading on the right, that is, when the lowest point arrives, it will be traded. In the US stock market, it also means that when the highest point decreases a certain range, sells stocks or short stocks.Its advantage is that it is on the way to the place after the location.In this way, the ability of funds will be relatively strong. It is usually used in large funds transactions, because large funds are generally focused on risk control, especially the first transaction of doing it. Try to make profits after entering the venue.Fang will not put too much pressure on the funds operating party.Its disadvantage is that it cannot buy the lowest point or sell the highest point. In this way, the scope of fluctuations in the market must be large enough. In the bear market, if you choose the right transaction, it is easy to buy or wrong.Passive situation.

There is no difference between the left system and the right system

Because the stock price cannot be guess, many investors believe that the right system is better than the left system. This is a misunderstanding of ideas. It is mainly based on Newton's law. Motion objects are inertia.It is believed that the stock price of the rise and falling process will maintain its original trend. For example, the right system will send a buy signal during the rise of the stock price, and the selling signal is issued in the process of falling.The probability of currency, the probability of subsequent rising, the decline currency, and the probability of subsequent declines.However, Newton's law is aimed at an ideal state. In the real material world, there are very few exercise in this way, and many movements show irregular exercise phenomena.

It's hard to say that the transaction method is suitable for investors with a certain trading style.Generally speaking, the left trading is more suitable for long -term or medium -term value investors.The right on the right is more suitable for short -term transactions, especially in US stock market transactions such as scalping, Momentum, and other transaction methods.However, some people also think that the short -term masters are masters on the left, the middle -line master is the expert of the right transaction, and the long -term master is the king of the left trading!In any case, traders are the most important thing to find a suitable way of trading according to their own risk bearing ability and trading style.

Talk about the left trading in the long line

Many people who really earn big money are left trading.Everyone may wish to find a book written by ten world -famous speculators to ensure that most of them are masters who trades on the left!

For the short -term left transaction that is successful: first, it is necessary to "proficient" instead of only grasping some technical indicators.Degree; third, very strong self -discipline.It can be said that without these three points for guarantee, no matter how high your IQ is.The short -term masters are piled up by funds, which is indeed true.

Everyone on the earth knows that the long -term is gold, but most people do not know that the long -term master is on the left. We take the oldest speculators Buffett as an example. He often says: others are afraid of me greedy, others others, others, others.Greed that I am afraid, in fact, the standard left trading motto. I do n’t know how many people really understand it. In addition, he often said that every time he bought a stock, he was preparing to lose 30 % first.They are the essence of the left trading!Another example is that Pakistan has fallen to about 7,000 points this year to call for everyone to buy stocks, which is the most typical bottom -to -left transaction in actual combat. As a result, it proves that the god of stock gods is the stock god.But why can't most people do it?Today is the main thing to raise the concept of the lower left and right. I don't want to start talking about this problem, because there are too many things involved.However, the core concept of the left side of the long -line master should be the value center. Below this value center is the opportunity to buy the bottom, otherwise it is the escape time!Indeed, it is difficult to be here. If you do n’t make money, who will pay for it?

This article is a record of speaking on Zhengzhou Station of Yide Futures Trading Salon on September 24.

From 1993 to the present, China's capital market has come over for so many years. I have witnessed and experienced it.From the first batch of stocks in the Shenzhen market, it has gone for more than 20 years from the first seat and ordering of the Zhengzhou market.For more than 20 years, I have witnessed the growth and growth of the Chinese capital market and futures market.So, how did I enter this market?To be honest, I was also "fooled" by others.Because my personality is not for futures and finance. At that time, I didn't understand futures finance. I didn't understand anything. I felt that this was a new thing. It was not bad. I just came in.To this day, looking back at the capital market in China, I think it has entered a new era from the vast grassland in the past. I named it in the era of great sailing. This era is multi -dimensional.In the past, our era was single -sided, black and white. Now this market enters the era of great sailing. It is three -dimensional. There are deep unpredictable trench below. There are twelve -level giant waves on the sea, with storms on it.If you want to fight for gold and silver, no longer like the vast grassland in the past, holding a sword and holding a gun can occupy the mountain as the king.It's not the same now, it's not that you have a small winding and canoe, you can fish and crab.What this era requires large tonnage ships, such as aircraft carriers.If you are an aircraft carrier, you have a sense of security at sea.The aircraft carrier needs very complicated technology and requires the cooperation of many teams.In my opinion, today's Chinese capital market has entered an era of large asset management and large teams.Ma Yun said in a word: "In this era, you should not join an excellent team, or you create an excellent team." The era of single -horses and solo swordsmen is far from us. The era of cold weapons is far from us.To be eliminated, we have now entered a hot nuclear era to accurately create large -scale lethal weapons.

Last year, the explosive growth of private equity funds, and there were thousands of products issued. Aside from the quality of the products, it would be like a blowout.As Tiger Lord said before, China's money was not out of place, and it always found a source.Everyone knows that China's economy, China today's monetary policy, and China's current currency volume are no longer what we imagine.The amount of days of money is still adding to the printing. Who will carry such a batch of days of currency?Can we all carry it?What kind of systems and companies can China carry these days of currency?Only real estate.Therefore, the rise in real estate, carrying these currencies, hedging of these currencies, and offset these currencies are beneficial to the society and the government. Of course, it is not very beneficial to the people (603883, stock bar).But the real estate industry will be replaced one day, so who will carry these currencies?Only industry.Now that China is going to engage in the virtual economy, no one in the industry has done it, and it is all going to the real estate. This is wrong.In the next step, the state may take industrial securitization and asset securitization.This market is very huge and huge enough to imagine that if industrialization and asset securitization of industrialization and asset securities, the amount of currency of the number of days will be carried.Based on this, China's future capital market can also be booming.Like your post -80s and post -90s, there will be a golden period of 10 to 15 years.This era is your time. I think this era is an opportunity.

I remember when I first entered the futures market 20 years ago, I actually didn't understand anything. I just crossed the river by touching the stones. I don't know what moving average, K -line, and wave theory.Later, I bought a book to read it. From reading to practice, it is a very long process. In this market, there are several places.I am not like others from the short -term to the day, and then the small cycle of large cycles and small trends, bigger and bigger, the bigger and bigger, from a soldier to the commander.When I entered this market, I listened to news.After coming in, there was some money in his waist.It would dare to say millions, hundreds of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands.What I thought at that time was whether I can turn to millions of money tomorrow, and it will turn to tens of millions next year.In this way, I have been listening to the news to gamble, starting from the big trend, and it is a mess.Later, he made a small cycle. Because of the market irregularities, the level of news could not be reached, and in the end, it was also compensated.I did it from the big, and then I did it within the day.I personally think that I am not a smart and quick -eyed person, so I pay more powerful.Finally started arbitrage and found your own position.The futures market is a market with the highest mortality and the lowest success rate.We all have chosen this market. You said how much money is made now, and there are so many, most of which are losing money. How much is this probability? I don't need to say more.Therefore, when you choose such a market, you must go in, and you have to experience hardships and died for a lifetime.If you are post -80s and post -90s, in your 20s, let alone whether you can make money. You can do it like a tiger like me, and you can have a bowl of rice, not to mention how much you makeMoney.

There is no lack of stars in this market.Yesterday you saw that he was holding a full position, and it was one million at once. There are too many such stories.I often tell futures media that the things you write, propaganda, and various competitions you do are wrong.Why?The futures itself is a very risky thing. You are doing a game now. Everyone will want to be the first place. When he is the first place, he will definitely hold a full -time warehouse overnight. He wants to bet.If you follow your normal thinking and steady thinking, you can't get in a hundred.Stable investment is long, it is a marathon, it is not a hundred meters racing.In the futures market, there are many articles that celebrities have achieved hundreds of millions of articles from tens of thousands.When chatting with young people, I will ask them how to enter this market.They will tell me that they can get rich soon.I said, did you hear that you have never heard of it in this market to come in and sideways?Can't you lift the corpse team, have you ever seen it?At this time, they will tell me that I will know that a certain big guy will be them in the future.However, do you know how many everyone we are here while these big guys make a hundred billion yuan?Ten2,000 can't achieve them, and you can sacrifice more of these talents.Therefore, when entering the futures market, we must first set a position.You have to consider whether you can survive in the next three years, can you eat enough meals, can you earn your rental money.Just like being working in a general society, I will come in today. Will there be a meal tomorrow? Whether the rent of the house next month can be paid. If these are solved, it is enough to lay your foundation.As soon as you entered this team, you want a missile, you want to make precisely manufacture weapons, and you plan to fight with Americans. That is like whimsical, it is impossible.Regardless of any investor or a newcomer, or the post -80s, post -90s, or post -00s, enter this market, we must first understand that coming here to survive and live first.

Furthermore, you must be fully prepared to enter this market.This market is actually a cruel, long -term ravage to people, from spiritual to flesh to your capital.All experiences, hardships.None of them here I think came in yesterday. I did it for two months, a year, and tens of millions.I think if there is such a myth, there are very few.

My futures life is also three or three places, and I return to zero three times.I remember the most clear time around 1997, and there was only 2,000 yuan left after all me, and nothing else was.At that time, I went home for the New Year holiday. I was very entangled inside. I wandered downstairs downstairs for two and a half hours. I didn't know how to knock on the door or how to face my family.In the end, I told my family the courage to tell the family. It was also silent at first, but later they got their understanding, comfort, and support. I was very moved and determined to return them in the future.It turns out that I did it.At the same time, through this incident, I also want to understand that this ups and downs is not possible, so I opened the current model.

There is an extreme liberalism in the capital market. I call it the extreme capital of capital.He just uses financial methods to give you constant distortion.Some people say that this is the power of the market.The power of the market contains a lot.For the extremes of the benefit, he earned 100 billion to earn 100 billion yuan. He couldn't wait to earn all the money in the capital market and kill everyone, so he was extremely distorted.

Everyone here will look at the K line, and they will study the fundamentals. Many of my friends watched the spot for futures futures.Now the financial attributes of the futures market are getting higher and higher, and the spot attributes are weakening.Through these years of business experience, I chose to make arbitrage.Stable profitability and compound profit growth are the theme of my futures.I have two, one without a variety of risks.The smallpox you said is messy, I don't do it.Because I am a financial manager, I do n’t try it like a personal account.I am a subject, I am a fund manager.Being your own households and wealth management products are two concepts.Second, do not do the varieties you are not familiar with.Like the mountains, you originally made agricultural products (000061, stock bar). Now you tell you that black is good. If you have not even studied black, you must pay a lot of tuition fees.Unfamiliar varieties and risks are resolutely not done.

I have brought many customers for more than ten years, and I have never lost a penny for a customer.It is another thing to earn more and earn less. With the safety and stability of peace, it will maximize the benefits.When making wealth management products, do not consider maximizing benefits, and consider maximizing security and maximizing stability.This is the most important point for you to do financial management and asset management.

A good plate player is not necessarily a fund manager, and a good fund manager is not necessarily a good plate player.When you are a fund manager, you financial management for others, and others are asking for inflation.If you hold other people's money, start innovation, just to maximize the benefits for yourself, then the purpose of making this financial management is not right.

Secondly, if you are a fund manager, it is very important to first make a financial product.How to afford investors, how to afford your customers, and treat others' money than their own lives and honors. Even if you have a bad skills, you can make this product well.

Then there is a lot of room for yourself, don't say too much.You have to say too much. In the future, you will be very embarrassed and tangled when you face this disk and face investors.In this market, once someone says you bragging, even if you do it well in the future, no one will believe it will be taken out.This market requires real gold and silver. Do not say a lot of words. You must not show your best account to others.

Finally, we must remember that when we do futures investment, when you are the most tangled, hard -to -last, you can lose less, do not lose or even be tied.The disk of turning the danger is a good disk.Everyone in our here, enter the market with the lowest survival rate and the highest mortality. Since you come in, you are a soldier, and you should not be destroyed by others.Futures are the philosophy of robbers. It requires the spirit of the fighter and the spirit of your death. It is actually the law of the jungle. You have to have a sufficient fighting spirit like a warrior.Survive for a long time, no matter how much money is made, everyone here, 20 or 30 years later, can still talk about laughter here, enough.Ren Zhiyuan, comrades work hard!

Anyone who trades knows the trend, but it is often unclear that the potential?Why do you do it?

The core method of technical analysis requires traders to understand some basic principles. One of them is to solve the direction of transactions through technical analysis and the level of judging the market.If the direction and level are determined, then the basis for your entry and exit time framework is also available, and the risk ratio of the compensation can be basically determined.These are closely related to the time cycle. Whether you do the medium- and long -term trend tracking, the short -term band -band transaction, or even the ultra -short -term, it is inseparable from this core issue. So how do you do your best?

We often see that the trend of each time cycle is the opposite, and the trend in the small cycle is sometimes just adjusting in the large cycle; the failure of the breakthrough in the small cycle may be the entry point for the end of the large cycle adjustment.So what should we do?

First make a simple definition of the time frame and make an independent time cycle with a 4-5 times time difference.

For example: 4 weeks a month, 5 trading days a week, 4 hours a day, 4 15 minutes in hour.There are weekly, daily levels, hours, 15 minutes, etc.

We use the hourly chart as a core transaction. The daily chart of the previous level is called the large cycle time, and the 15 -minute chart is called the small cycle time.Each time is continuous in order. When doing transactions, the trend of the upper and lower two -time framework is mainly concerned. Do not directly cross the weekly line to jump to the daily chart or hour chart.The time cycle is actually a model we look at the market trend.

Metaphors: The weekly diagram is like a telescope. The daily chart is closer to see, so the hourly chart is a magnifying glass, and 15 minutes is a microscope.

How is the size cycle connected on the same chart?What is the relationship between?

To put it simply, if the core trading chart is the hour chart (60 points), the direction of the 20 -day moving average of the hour chart is the core of the trend of the hour map, that is, the "potential" of the hours of the hour.Contrary to the 20 -day moving average of this cycle.In the same way, the 5 -day moving average on the hour chart is the 20 -day moving average on the 15 -minute chart!The 20 -day moving average on the hour map is the 5 -day moving average on the daily line.

Saying here, everyone should understand how to see the relationship between the next cycle, what is the trend?How to follow the trend?

If the trend of this cycle and the next cycle is the same, the trend will be relatively smooth. You can find the breakthrough point in time according to this principle, that is, the critical point of price change.It can even see if the market will cause shocks from the time framework.

With the above understanding, let's talk about the basic principles of the time cycle:

First, the large cycle controls the small cycle, and the large cycle is not over, the small cycle will not end.

Compared with the large cycle is the Zhouye strategy, and the small cycle is a specific route.In other words, if the trend of the daily line is not finished, the hourly map will continue to move forward in the direction of the daily line.Will it be supported if the next small cycle is also supported?This will be the best filter to your transaction signal, and the profitability of profit will also increase significantly, because you cannot have a retrograde list in your hand.

Second, the small cycle market summary becomes a big cycle trend.

If the small cycle trend is abnormal (the strength of the exercise and strength), the large cycle may change in advance.In other words, the small cycle shows special trends and large cycles of contrast, and the trend is strong, manifested as slope, K -line strength, and continuity in time, which may lead to the trend reversal.

Imagine that if the big cycle and the small cycle are inconsistent, the following phenomenon will generally occur:

1. Vibration is equivalent to fighting each other between the size of the size, manifested as the chart no trend.

At this time, it can also be called a complex market, and you need to wait patiently, because the trend trader is the most troublesome headache and the most likely to cause loss. This is this time, which is called the form or the non -trading period. That is to sayThe small cycle is not obvious and there is no trend.If you can't control your own order in such a place, it is often easy to stop loss.

2. Adjust the next level, and continue to advance in accordance with the original trend after the adjustment, that is, the time cycle direction of this level.

At this time, the trend is reappearing, that is, the entry point or additional position of our transaction cycle.The low -cycle adjustment we generally do not leave the field, wait for him to adjust the position after the adjustment.(How to judge the trend again and introduce it separately later.)

3. Treatment of larger levels of adjustment, which causes the trend of your trading cycle to change.

For example: do the hour line, then the 15 -minute chart shows a wave of waves and the opposite trend of the hour, and the time is large, resulting in the changing trend of the hourly chart (showing the change of the hours of the hour in Figure 20). At this time, pay attention to the day.The line diagram, if the breakthrough failure or the progress of the hour chart is often the entry point of the previous level (the end of the daily line level is over, in fact, the next level, the 15 -minute chart will appear and the daily level level, the daily level levelThe same direction trends, and high strength and fast speed).

4. Directly lead to the reversal of the trend of the large cycle.

How do we know that the above phenomenon will occur in advance and make position adjustments in time?

First of all, look at the specific movement method of the small cycle, the specific manifestation as the slope (speed) of the movement, the form (strength) of the K line, the coordination of the capacity and the kinetic energy (the impact of the price per unit, that is, the acceleration), theseIt can be reflected in the intensity, strength and subsequent continuity of the market.The emergence of the adjustment point often has some characteristics in time and space. We must maintain enough vigilance at some critical time nodes and space nodes!This will involve the complex relationship between the form and the trend, which will explain this problem in detail in the future.

After you know the effect of time framework on price fluctuations, you can try trading. First of all, it depends on the large cycle (daily line). The purpose is:

1. Determine the general direction. Only by cooperating with the general direction can the market go farther and smoother (new filtering, wait for the chance of admission).

2. The complex adjustment in the daily line performed very regular on the weekly line and clarified the direction of the overall strategy.(Try to avoid the transaction cycle and form).

3. The adjustment in the daily line may be performed on the weekly line as 1-3 K-line, which is easy to enter the venue in a timely manner, and it is also conducive to maintaining the existing position.(Judgment adjustment level and quantitative).

4. If the large cycle does not cooperate, reduce the time framework or reduce expectations.(Differential treatment).

The purpose of seeing the hour chart (60 minutes):

1. The trend after the daily adjustment of the waves will be reflected in advance in the hour line.In

2. Observe and adjust the movement method to determine whether it is normal.(Whether time and space structure are correct and normal, you need to explain it in the future)

3. After entering the market, if the market goes out of the trend, use the peak valley of the hourly map to make defense positions.

Many times the time cycle of the transaction is upside down!Find the direction in the large cycle, the large cycle often indicates the amount of large funds, and the trend inertia has been formed; the small cycle finds some positions, and the market rarely rises or falls directly.Someone who holds the currency and wait for the opportunity to enter the opportunity, there is a profit to increase the position, and there are losses to make up the position! Generally, Lin Lin is different!

The market trend is twisted. If you happen to take the ride before and after the trend starts, then congratulations, you are lucky!Don't play with your head for a little bit of small profits!If the general trend is not changed, it should be decisively added in the market cycle. If you do it, it happens that the best time for you to escape!The law of 28 is the iron law of the four seas. In addition to making high frequencies, 80%of the money is 20%of the money earning money, and 80%of the money at a loss of 20%of the single loss!You can only lose a lot of money every time, and you must not recognize how much you leave!Greedy and innocent, survival!

What is doing transactions is to make a difference in high throwing and low suction. How long can it rise now?How long can we fall now?Is it worth gambling?The future trend of the transaction, but how far your future is?

It is best to remind you again that the entry and exit in the actual transaction process is far more complicated than the above. It involves many details. This article is no longer tired of one by one, and there will be a chance to explain in detail next time.

What I want to share today is as a basic rule. The core premise is that we must recognize the importance of the time framework of the transaction. This is the most reasonable analysis method to track the price change.Commodity markets and stock markets.The time frame of grasping transactions can greatly improve your winning percentage, and when you leave the field when you enter the field, you can really standardize the field.Secondly, because of the different personalities, it has important reference significance for traders how to choose a trading cycle that suits them. Although rarely uses and moving average to do transactions, it makes the same reason, especially for novices who just entered the market.The most basic things in these things must be mastered.

The author of this article is the senior market analyst of London Capital Group Holding Company, a senior market analyst of the FCA regulatory agent.

Politics and transactions are closely related to each other and depend on each other.

Politics is the cornerstone of the economy.The political environment provides the foundation for the development of business, the formation of the economy, and the creation of transaction relations.

For most traders, politics is the source of risk and an important fuse of price fluctuations.

Generally speaking, political related risks will affect market dynamics and cover considerable industries and companies.In view of the widespread impact of politics on the market, political risks are usually incorporated into "market risks", which affects asset pricing and risk -related currencies.

The evaluation agency is responsible for evaluating the regional and state levels, and considers debt, asset feasibility and risk levels.The above factors are all related to politics.This is because high political risks affect the business environment and have a significant impact on economic factors.

Brexit is a typical example of political risk.The future of Britain in the European Union is dim, and most companies are seeking decentralized risks and delayed projects and investment.On the other hand, investors are unwilling to bear the political risks between Britain and the European Union, so they have delayed investment, do not decide to invest, or completely withdraw money.

Let's continue this topic.After the British referendum on June 23 decided to withdraw from the EU, the British real estate field was severely hit.MSCI's British real estate ETF referendum immediately decreased by 7%after Britain's attraction to European companies and families.The quality of work and life in the UK has not changed. Political risks spillover may lead to a decline in the demand for the British real estate market, but related risks are immediately digested by the market.

In this situation in the UK, Brexit may also adversely affect the political relationship between Britain and its biggest trading partner -EU.In view of the historic trade deficit of Britain, any further deterioration of trade conditions means that the euro used to purchase British goods will decrease, and the net demand for the pound will decline, resulting in the long -term and structural depreciation of the pound against the euro.

Of course, the influence of politics is far greater than the examples we mentioned earlier. It is worth mentioning that politics is not always harmful.A good political environment is important for business prosperity and development, which will bring income and enable enterprises to develop.However, under the circumstances of transactions, politics is usually considered risky. Asset value must be considered in consideration of political decisions. Political decision -making (riots and scandals) will cause rapid and large -scale selling in many markets.Consider a part of the trader's risk management strategy.

On October 28, 2016, the "Dachen Economic Forum" hosted by Dachen Venture Capital was held on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The theme of the forum was "Industrial Opportunities in the Era of Great Change".Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics at the International Business School of Central Europe, gave a speech at the meeting. The following is part of the content of the speech:

Source: Humanities and Economics Society

good morning guys.

I am very happy to have a communication with you here. The content I talked about today is divided into two parts, one is the macroeconomic, and the latter part is the micro -economy.

In general, there is no drama in the macro economy, but there is great hope at the micro level.

Why is the L -type growth?

Let me talk about the origin of L -shaped growth.In May this year, the People's Daily published an interview with an authoritative person. The authoritative person in the interview said that the future trend of the Chinese economy is neither U -shaped nor V -type, but L -shaped.Type L is a long -term hovering at the bottom, and has been in a low growth for a long time. This L -type judgment, I am very supportive of this view.The judgment of the L shaped is directly related to the new normal announced by the central government some time ago. Behind these two statements is an economic analysis. After 30 years of economic growth, in the future, we will face a long -term low growth stage in the future.EssenceFor this, enterprises must be fully prepared.

Why does the Chinese economy enter the L type?How long will the Chinese economy stay in the L type?How can we break through the L type and enter a new stage of growth?This is what I want to talk about today.

Before talking, I would like to say why we need to use mathematical expression to make economic analysis. This is to provide you with a logical structure of an analytical economic phenomenon, including the business status of the enterprise.A consideration of multiple factors.

This world is not a combination of single factor, but a macroeconomic situation showing the macroeconomic situation under the action of a variety of factors.Enterprise operations also involve many factors, such as market forms, consumer demand, corporate strategy, business model, human resource management, marketing channel management, product research and development, etc.

I want to say a little more way of thinking here.In our way of thinking, abstract thinking has been ignored for a long time, so that our abstract thinking ability is relatively weak, and the low of abstract thinking ability not only hinders our analysis of economic phenomena and corporate operating conditions, but also a particularly largeThe negative impact is to make the innovation capabilities of our enterprises unable to improve.

Innovation requires a little abstract thinking ability.Because innovation is something that predecessors have not done, it is something that has not been seen before.It is equivalent to entering a non -experienced world, and in this non -experienced world, imagine the appearance of new products and technologies.

One of the reasons why China's corporate innovation ability is weak is that abstract thinking ability is poor.

Since you need to analyze multiple factors, there must be a framework. This framework can incorporate multiple factors into a unified formula analysis, so I spend a little time here to talk about this analysis framework.If you can grasp this analysis framework, the introduction below will become simple.

The first formula is about the relationship between the input and output. The output is used to indicate that Y can be used as the GDP of the country or the total output of Y.Woolen cloth?It is determined by the three factors on the right. A represents the technical level. This technical level includes not only the efficiency of production equipment, but also a business model, organizational management, and even corporate culture.We all see A.K represents capital investment, L represents labor investment.Of course, there are more than these types of enterprises. In order to analyze simplified, we only give three types of inputs on the right here, one is technology A, one is capital K, and the other is labor L.

This β is an empirical coefficient, which is obtained by returning through empirical data.This formula has the statistics of various countries that confirmed its establishment.

The most valuable is actually per capita GDP, that is, per capita output.Because it is not the total amount of GDP that determines the living standard of a country, but the per capita GDP.It is not difficult to launch the expression of per capita GDP.

Let's take a look at the formula of the per capita GDP.

L is the labor population in the per capita GDP (Y/L), and y is GDP, so this is the per capita GDP. It depends on two factors, one is A (technical level).The second is that the capital stock K except the value of the labor stock L. In other words, the output of a country's citizens depends on the level of technical level A and per capita capital ownership (Y/L).

Why understand this relationship?We can clearly get two different growth models and two different models of enterprise development.

One category is called quantitative growth, that is, increasing capital investment.Take a look at the right of this formula. If you increase K (capital), that is, increase per capita capital ownership. Of course, the per capita output on the left will increase.We call this growth model and the model of corporate operations as quantity growth, and he relies on the number of resource investment to drive growth.The second category of growth is that K (Capital) does not increase, and improves A (technical level). This growth model, we call it efficient growth.

After doing these two types of distinctions, ask everyone here, what kind of growth in the Chinese economy in the past ten years?That's right, we have increased quantitative growth in the past ten years.Relying on the government's expansion fiscal policy and expanding monetary policy to stimulate the investment of enterprises and the government. Therefore, the source of economic growth in the past ten years comes from the increase in capital investment, rather than the improvement of efficiency and the improvement of technological progress.Essence

What are the problems with the economic growth model driven by capital?

Now there is a common point of view that the Chinese economy is fine. The difficulties encountered by China's economy are the stop of external demand. We have a strong government. The government has unlimited resources. As long as the government is invested, the Chinese economy can continue to grow.Where is this view?

There is a decrease in the boundary income of capital in economics.It can be imagined that farmers operate fields. At first, there were only very simple labor tools, such as hoe and sickle.This very simple agricultural production method is very efficient, and the per capita capital ownership is also very low.Now, you can configure a tractor for him. Imagine that under the conditions of other conditions, farmers' output will increase a lot.But if you equip him with a second tractor, will the output increase the same amount?What's the third place to him?

For every tractor, the production increase effect is different.The production of the second tractor is much lower than that of the first one, and the increase in production of the third tractor is almost 0.

This simple example tells us that the law of general economics is the decrease in the marginal income of capital. It simply increases the capital ownership of farmers, which can increase his output, but each unit adds new capital outputThe added value is decreasing, and it will definitely be reduced to 0 or even negatives.This is called the decreased marginal income of capital. This is a common law. When the marginal income of capital is equal to 0, does investment still have a stimulating effect on the macroeconomic?Does investment still promote the increase in enterprise output?

there is none left.Due to the decreased law of capital marginal income, what are the problems with quantitative growth?It is unsustainable, no matter how much K (capital) you add, it cannot drive growth.

When the investment income is 0, monetary policy is useless.The central bank will issue currency and encourage banks to issue loans to enterprises. Will the enterprise be invested in the real economy after getting a loan?No, why not?Because the real economy has no investment income, where did the funds go?The property market, these are obvious in Shenzhen, and it is also obvious in Shanghai. It is all going to the property market.

The real economy does not have money to enter, and the leaders are anxious. The leaders have repeatedly said that financial institutions must support the development of the real economy. All walks of life must support the real economy. How to support the real economy?Is it just to spend money?It's not a matter of money now, the economy is not bad, and the enterprise is not bad. The worse is investment opportunities that can make money.Therefore, capital entering real estate is a rational choice for enterprises and people.You can't blame them. Bubbles are rational decisions of economic individuals. The reason why bubbles appear because policies are unreasonable. Under irrational policies, rational individuals make decisions, so they generate asset bubbles.As a result, money has reached the capital market. Last year was the stock market and this year was the property market.

Since the number of quantitative growth has encountered the limit, where is the key point of economic maintenance sustainable growth?

It lies in technical level A.Someone asked, is there any problem with the technical level of marginal income?No, why not exist?In other words, why is the technical level sustainable?Because the ability of humans to know the economy and nature is endless.The technical level can be continuously improved. When the marginal income of an old technology decreases, the new technology is generated.Continuous technological innovation has enabled humans to enter a continuous growth stage after the industrial revolution.

200 years ago, the production efficiency and per capita GDP of the agricultural society were hovering at a low level for a long time. Only after the industrial revolution, the economy entered a continuous growth stage. The most fundamental driving force for continuous growth is continuous technological progress. From steam engines, it is from steam engines.Start to electric power, railway, and internal combustion engines, followed by cars, radio, electronic products and computers, until today's mobile Internet.This technological innovation will never stop. It is the fundamental guarantee for sustainable economic growth.

Back to the theme, why does the Chinese economy L -type appear?

The reason is that in the past, it has been relied on investment -driven economic growth, and did not realize that the growth model of investment -driven obey obeying the decrease in income. When the marginal income is equal to 0, no matter how much the investment economy is, it will not move.If we do not change the growth mode now, we will stay in the L -type growth medium and long -term for a long time, which is the so -called middle -income trap.In the final analysis of the middle income trap, a backward country can achieve economic take -off through capital accumulation, but when the economy takes off, if it still depends on capital, it will enter the middle income trap.

When investing cannot create new value, how to break through the middle income trap?It is to shift the growth model from capital accumulation to technological innovation.

Therefore, the era of capital pulling the economy has ended, and the era of technological innovation has arrived.If a company cannot adapt to this turning point, it may be eliminated by market competition.If the country's economy cannot adapt to this turning point, it is a middle -income trap, which is a long -term L type.

I have seen that many companies have realized the crisis, but I don't know where to break through, or know where to break through, but I do n’t know how to do it. There are many such companies. I feel that many of them will be eliminated.

The supply side reform in my eyes

In response to the problem of China's economy, the central government raised a new normal economy at this time and proposed the supply side. I think it is very timely.

In the past, economic growth was based on the government's money and the central bank's water release. This role all acts on the demand side, especially to stimulate investment demand.The supply side contains the level of technical level. The main body of driving technological reform is enterprise, so the means of turning to the supply side means that economic growth has shifted from government policies to the efficiency of enterprises.With enterprises as the core, seeking the motivation for economic growth, in order to improve the efficiency of the enterprise, to find the high -speed growth of the economy.This is the supply -side reform I understand.

Technological reforms basically have nothing to do with the government, because fiscal policies, or monetary policy, will it affect technology?Does it affect the technical level of an enterprise?

To put it better, there is no impact. Frankly, the government's macro policy has the impact of reducing the technological innovation of enterprises.

In addition, we also need to know the three consequences of excessive dependence on investment to drive the economy.

The consequences of the growth of K (capital) are overcapacity. In the face of overcapacity, we have a strange logic: Since the capacity is overcapacity, we will drive the demand.This logic is very strange. Why not reduce excess capacity?

Due to excess capacity, the company had to bid for sale. As a result, GDP has grown negatively for more than 50 consecutive months. It is said that last month finally became positive growth.However, now I do n’t know how to interpret it. I do n’t understand anyway, and many counts are not right.

Under the pressure of excess capacity, companies can only reduce prices. This picture tells us how serious the excess capacity is.Another consequence of this K (capital) growth is that the liability ratio has continued to rise.Since the financial crisis, our debt ratio has made rapid progress, an increase of almost 100 percentage points, from 160%to 260%, which is a very terrible system risk.This is the consequence of K (capital) growth.

The current policy direction began to shift from the demand side to the supply side in a timely manner. What should the supply side policy do?I think we must first clean up the systemic risks left by the growth of K (capital) in the past. This is the first thing to do. This systemic risk is on the supply side and not on the demand side.If the excess capacity is not eliminated, the benefits of the enterprise will become worse and worse, and the corporate bankruptcy failure cannot be avoided, so removal of excess capacity is the first task.The second major task is deleveraging, and the third is to reduce liabilities.This is a systemic risk left by the growth of K (capital).

The central government has proposed three tasks to control systemic risks, but I do n’t understand the actual doing it. What we do now is not deleveraging, but to transfer leverage, leverage is liabilities.Transfer to the residential department and transfer it in a hot way in the real estate market.Buy a house with lever, where did the house sell for the house?It is not in the hands of the government to help the government reduce leverage. This is not a reduction in the entire economy. This is just to transfer leverage. The direction of the central government's policy is right, but why is it against it when it is executed?

Destructal is right?Everyone knows that the old farmers can't sell the cabbage in the vegetable market. How should his inventory be reduced?Naturally, it is a cheaper to sell, and the price reduction and inventory.But we are now price increases and inventory. What logic is this?I still can't understand, is there any price increase in this world?Some people say that the Chinese people are just like this.It is indeed rising to buy in the real estate market, and the price reduction and holding the currency will be seen. The expected price is further declined, which seems to make sense.

However, with the rise in real estate prices, what happened in the land market?The soaring price sent a wrong signal to the real estate company. The land king frequently came out. The real estate developers were grabbing land. After the land was grabbed, did they put the land there?What are you going to develop and develop?More inventory.Where is this destocking?This is the inventory.

What should I do?It is very simple, letting a loss -making enterprise closed, the production capacity is gone.In the past, listed companies can go down. Now it is not possible. Banks are not allowed to collect bonds and continue to supply funds. Is this de -capacity?The production capacity is still increasing. How can you not let these zombie companies go down?

What should supply side reforms do?

What should the real supply -side reform do?I can only say what the supply side should do. I don't know what the supply side will really do. These are two different natures, and we often mix it.There is a problem in this world called the right problem. There is a kind of problem called the real problem. As a scholar, I can only talk about the problem. What should I look like?That is a real problem. The actual policy is not something we can solve. It can only talk about the granting policy.

What should the supply side do to promote enterprises to improve A (technical level), I put forward several suggestions here:

The first suggestion is to comprehensively reduce taxes, not structural tax cuts. In the past, structural tax cuts were reduced and reduced, and in fact, the increase was much reduced.Tax reduction is not only to reduce the burden on the enterprise, but also leave more resources to the enterprise and the market to allocate, rather than allocate by the government, and give more resources to enterprises for research and development.

The second suggestion is to reduce the scale of the state -owned economy, because it is impossible to improve the A (technical level) by the state -owned economy, because state -owned enterprises do not have the pressure of innovation and the driving force for innovation. If you want to innovate, you must rely on private enterprises to rely on private enterprisesEssenceI am not criticizing state -owned enterprises, but that I should adhere to the major direction of China's reform and opening up in the 30 years, because state -owned enterprises have not improved the incentive mechanism of A (technical level).

Why did Dachen invest so well?Because the interests of managers and enterprises are bound, does state -owned enterprises have this mechanism?No, the salary of state -owned enterprises is fixed and decreased. You let the state -owned enterprise managers get hundreds of thousands of wages a year, but they care about hundreds of billions of assets. What result is it?How could he have enthusiasm and stress to make technical innovation?He does not have this incentive mechanism, so if you want to improve the A (technical level) of the national economy, we must reduce the scope of the state -owned economy, promote privateization, and promote market -oriented reform.

The third suggestion, what are the problems with private enterprises now?Many private enterprises, although there are incentives and developed well, can go to the market, but we can see that many private entrepreneurs are not now on A (technical level), but at USA.Private entrepreneurs are in immigration and want to take their wives and children to Silicon Valley. Why?Because there is a very good educational environment there, all rushed to the school district house. There is a Paroo city next to Silicon Valley. The house prices there are not worse than Shenzhen.Just fall.

The minds of private entrepreneurs are not innovating, and they want to immigrate. This is why the renminbi has been devalued. Too many assets have flowed out, so the renminbi depreciates.Therefore, the RMB exchange rate is now a new scale. In order to strengthen the confidence of Chinese entrepreneurs, in order to allow them to invest on this land and prosper the economy of our country, he must make him confident.There are two reasons for his current insufficient confidence: the first reason is that business, the Chinese economy is down, and the US economy has gone well, so funds flow to the United States.The second reason is legal. He feels that property security cannot be guaranteed. For example, the public opinion that is now in the Cultural Revolution, etc., has made some entrepreneurs daunting and choosing to go.

In order to enable private enterprises to use its resources, time and energy to innovate, and to improve A (technical level), what do we do?What should the government do?What can the government do?

To protect private property rights, to make a trusted commitment to private property rights, this credible commitment does not come from the mayor's speech, but from the legal system.Very important measures for the supply side.

Article 2 The measures are mentioned by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee, and the market must make the market play a decisive role in allocating resources.To allow the market to play a decisive role in allocation of resources, it is necessary to reduce the scope of the state -owned economy, because the allocation of resources of the state -owned economy is administrative, not marketization. You must make private enterprises strengthen the Chinese economy and make it.Investment and research and development to improve A (technical level) must promote judicial reform, ensure the security of private property rights, and create a good environment for them.

The above is a few suggestions for the supply -side reform I opened.As for the actual policy, I don't know.

If there is no substantial change in the supply side

If we cannot see these substantial changes in the supply side system, then our L -shaped tail may be delayed for a long time. I think the key to jumping out of the L -shaped trap is that I just talked about these.It has nothing to do with the central bank's water release, and it has nothing to do with the RMB exchange rate. It has nothing to do with the house price of Shenzhen. What really wants to do is institutional reform.Long tail, enter a new stage of development.

Without these substantial reforms, more enterprises will have difficulty in operating. Local governments may have debt defaults. The renminbi will continue to depreciate due to the continuous outflow of capital, but it will not collapse.Short -term prosperity is difficult to maintain.

Microeconomics is getting more and more promising

The above is the status quo of the macro economy, so is there no hope for the Chinese economy?No, my personal point is that the worse the macroeconomic, the more hopeful the microeconomics, the more I will talk about the microeconomic.

First of all, the worse the macro economy, the more promising the microeconomic economy. What is the logic?

Poor is thinking about changes. If a person lives comfortably, he will not change at all.My traditional business model is very good, why do you change?The economic development of the country is also. The 10%growth is good every year. What is necessary to say about this reform from all day long to say this reform. What reforms?

Now that the economy is not good, you told the government to reform. It can hear it than before. Now you tell the company to transform, and it is willing to listen.But for companies, what does macro policy have to do with you?Macro policy has nothing to do with you.The macro level is not good, but there are many encouraging changes at the corporate level, and they are willing to transform.

First of all, correcting a concept, transformation is not equal to turning career, do not do bad.The transformation refers to the transformation of the business model, not from the manufacturing to the financial industry.Some people say that the transition is to find death, and not to transform is waiting for death.Because he changed his understanding as a transfer, that was to find death, because he had no experience in the new industry.

Here, I introduce an old book, not a popular book, most of the garbage in pop books. If you read books, I still recommend reading a classic and do not read the popular books.

This book is Drucker's "Innovation and Entrepreneurship". This book emphasizes several points, and I am very agreed.One of the views is that innovation requires high -tech?In traditional industries, innovation is a big opportunity.Another point of view is that innovation needs to be focused, and the accumulation of experience. Only in this industry for many years can we know where the core issue of the industry is.Drucker gave many cases in this book. This is the principle. Traditional industries can innovate, innovation must be concentrated.

Because there are very few things that can be studied at the macro level, there are very few things that can be said. In recent years, I spend more and more time on the research of the enterprise.Traditional industries have innovated cases, completely supporting Drucker's views in this book.In traditional industries, it is still very good.

For example, the clothing industry, the past business model opened once a year, and the sales channels were reported to the sales volume next year.This model can no longer adapt to the new situation. What is the new situation?The ladies here should have a stronger feeling. Do you now change the style once a year in clothing manufacturers?No, so some companies began to change his business model.

The development of the business model is good, and it can achieve the growth of the trend. In the case of the entire clothing industry or the sales of sales, he can increase by 10%or 20%, because he has changed in timeThe business model will be opened at least once a quarter. It is not enough to open once a quarter. It is necessary to continue to launch new styles quickly, and to launch new styles, all adjustments must be made from design and sales and production links.

Who is the richest man in Japan?Uniqlo's owner is the clothing industry and a traditional industry.What strategy can he be the richest man in Japan?It is not quickly updated. How many years of Uniqlo's style is unchanged, all are basic models, so why can it be so successful?Where is its (technical level)?Where is its innovation?

In the fabric, Uniqlo's investment in fabric research is no way to compare other clothing industries. Uniqlo and university have long -term cooperation to develop fabric development. The fabrics are different from other people's fabrics.Human favorite, which makes Uniqlo owners the richest man in Japan.

There are many opportunities for innovation in traditional industries

There are really many opportunities for traditional industries. If you have big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, it is good.No, you do n’t have to be arrogant, focus on your own industry, differentiated competitive development products and technologies. You can make ZARA or Uniqlo, ZARA and Uniqlo use high -tech?There is no high -tech.

Continue to innovation in traditional industries. You do n’t have to feel pessimistic because of your technology, there are no big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence. Traditional industries can still be innovated, but you need experience accumulation, processing and optimization of processes.understand.

I have always mentioned a slogan called all walks of life+the Internet, not Internet+, and Internet+is a misleading direction.The Internet+is proposed by government officials. How can they know the direction of the future industry in the future?Why did you listen to him?

We can listen to this concept of Chinese manufacturing and industry 4.0, but we do n’t want to disassemble the word “listening” and “from”.Only after your own independent thinking, you understand that you think it is logically and experienced. At this time, you should act, so do not follow the popular slogans in the market.Essence

For transformation, we have repeatedly emphasized that the transformation needs to be concentrated and persistently stupid. There is no need for clever people. Do not look for the ventilation of policies, or the business of business. I have to give up the habit of opportunities. My student once asked me:Professor, where do you think the next air outlet is.He said that the pigs could fly up as long as they were on the wind.I said that you drop yourself to the level of pigs, what else do I have to say with you?

This habit of opportunism is not enough in the era of technology -driven, and it is possible in the era of capital -driven.

Transformation needs to cultivate your own independent thinking ability. Do not chase the wind. Following the trend is not innovative. Doing what others are doing are not innovative. That is called imitation. Chinese companies lack the ability to think independently, so his behavior becomesIn the crowd behavior, I do whatever others do.

One company is called Haidilao, who made hot pot. After I went, I experienced it really good. When I arrived at Haidilao in several cities, the service standards were high standard after entering.Opening one or two stores in a city, making the service standards is relatively high and in place. This is not difficult.The difficulty is that the quality of the nation's chain can be guaranteed. The characteristics of Haidilao are characterized by human resource management as an incentive mechanism. The incentive mechanism can be detailed to each employee. This is innovation. What does innovation mean?The so -called innovation is something that predecessors have not done, doing things that have not been done with their peers, and doing what they have not done. This is called innovation.Of course, the premise is to bring value to customers.

Similar concept

There are many plausible concepts on the road of innovation.

Internet thinking, why do you say Internet thinking?The Internet is just one of many human innovation since the Industrial Revolution. Why do the Internet have a single set of thinking?The steam engine has no thinking, the computer has no thinking, and the most mindful artificial intelligence, and no one has proposed artificial intelligence thinking. Why do I have to have an Internet thinking?I don't understand.

Ecological circles, creating an ecosystem, ecosystems do not depend on marketing and subsidies.You rely on subsidies to create an ecosystem, just like putting a bunch of grass on the ground of the prairie. As a result, sheep are all coming. After eating it, it is completely scattered. What is the ecosystem created?With the fence, you have to circle a fence on the grass. This fence is used in economics, called entry and exit barriers, so as to create an ecosystem.

Is the ecosystem of Apple mobile phones relying on subsidies?Apple does have a large ecosystem. Its ecosystem depends on two very important technologies. One is a mobile phone. Your mobile phone must be the best mobile phone in the market, and everyone will buy your things.Then the second is Apple's iOS system. Without the support of the IOS operating system and high -performance mobile phone, Apple's ecosystem is collapsed.How can the ecosystem be maintained by the price?There must be a fence in the ecosystem. If you want him to come in, you ca n’t go out.

Many taxi companies are now in trouble, giving subsidy talents, and the subsidy will be canceled one day, and people are gone.How can Chinese consumers have loyalty?Chinese consumers are only loyal to Qian and not loyal to any brand. Why are you loyal to you?When your price is higher than a taxi, why do you consume here?I will not consume, so the ecosystem is a misleading concept.

The sharing economy is another one. I have to draw a large question mark in all this slogan. The sharing economy is the concept of media promotion. Why do we believe it?

The sharing economy only uses a small amount of unnecessary capabilities.But the basis of the sharing economy is private property rights, such as Airbnb. If you go to the house of others, if you don't pay, who will share it with you?And Uber, who do you let you make a car?

The market economy has always been lined up, not sharing, and private property rights are also lined up, not sharing.If you look forward to communist society is another matter, it is your ideal, and the real economy is not like this.

If there is private property rights, it is impossible to have a sharing economy.How can the sharing economy be a future trend?We are often fainted by these very fashionable concepts and lost our ability to judge. This is why we have to introduce the analysis framework at the beginning. The analysis framework is the ability to help us get independent thinking.

Besides, Industry 4.0 was blown up. After reading the company below, I said, "You also say 4.0? I didn't even do it. What about 4.0?"

In the process of constantly clarifying with these plausible concepts, I made a summary: Industry 4.0 or the future direction, but for many Chinese companies, for most Chinese companies, the current problems are not industrial at all.4.0, but Industry 2.0 and Industry 3.0. If you do the Industry 3.0 well, this efficiency will be greatly improved.

Curring overtaking is delusional

Starting from Industry 1.0, 1.0 is mechanized and dynamic.Industry 2.0 is automation and process, and in the process of automation and process, accompanied by standardization.Industry 3.0 is informatization, and Industry 4.0 is intelligent.

I think this point may be a relatively real description of the current situation in China.Most companies stay in the stage of 2.0 or even the 2.0 stage. I think these versions of the industry are unable to surpass.Now there is a popular saying called "curve overtaking". What kind of car do I say?Everyone knows that the curve cannot be accelerated, and the curve must be decelerated. If your curve is accelerated, the result is not overtaking but a rollover. The curve overtaking is also a very harmful concept.

Don't tell me that the curve is overtaking, and it is honest from your own company. What should you do?If you want to speculate, it is a misunderstanding of the old opportunist in the new situation.It is our problem that we cannot do things carefully and improve all aspects of the enterprise.

The macro economy will continue to be sluggish, but this does not mean that we have nothing to do on the micro level. The worse the macroeconomic economy, the stronger the motivation and pressure of micro -transformation and innovation. Instead, I am optimistic about the future of the Chinese economy.

We have fertile commercial soil and rich entrepreneur resources. The most valuable resources in China's economic development are entrepreneurs. I believe that in the face of the L -shaped economic situation, government policy will turn to pragmatic and reform. There is no reason to be pessimistic about the future.Essence

thank you all.

In the face of losses, everyone is hesitant; they are unwilling to give up, unwilling to stop loss.Today, Master Yuanyuan's Master Yuan proposed "the cost of sinking."You may be able to discover: why you don't want to stop loss.

This is our 79th mental method ~

Recently, when I talked to a friend who traded, when the novices couldn't calm down the stop loss, my friend mentioned a word: sinking cost.I believe that in the transaction, when facing the choice of stop loss, it is the same as when facing the cost of sinking in life. When something I do is in trouble, and the cost of reluctance to this matter is reluctant,So it has been troubled.And give me some examples in life:

For example, a college student spent 3 years to study machinery, but it is not his preference. The reason for him to change his professionalism is: I have spent 3 years to learn machinery. Do I have to waste these three years?For another example, couples are in love, but they find that the other party has been inappropriate, but she does not break up, because it has spent so much time running in each other.

For these costs that have been paid, it is no longer possible to get back the cost, but why do we always miss as mortals?

In the transaction, we are often reluctant to stop loss when facing the floating loss list.The reason for this is that we are lucky on the one hand: in the actual transaction, it is almost 10 stop loss and 9 mistakes. We often hear people say, "If I do n’t lose weight, I will carry it now."So every time you lose, you want to carry it, carry back the cost of sinking, and make money, and even more, the more you lose more (however, the remaining time is enough to cause us to explode).On the other hand, we often blame human nature: considering that humans are irrational and unwilling to admit wrong.

These analysis seemed very reasonable, but I thought about the idea of "sinking costs" and it seemed a bit new.

It is still the example of those two life: if the college student who is entangled in or not to change his professional, after confirming that he has changed his professional, you can enter the best graduate school of this major after two years, and successfully enter the industry in the industry after graduation.A good company, will he still be tangled?And the girl who was hesitant to break up with her current couple, if she could break up, Wu Yanzu would step on seven -color clouds to marry her, would she still hesitate?

Switch to the transaction, if I am sure I can earn thousands of points after buying the screw list of the floating loss on the stop loss, and after buying the rubber list, then I will still make a profit.Is it emotional?

Conversely, it is:

When you want to give up a discipline, you are not sure if another subject can bring you more;

When you want to give up a person, you may not know if he will become better in the future, or worry that you can be better than being with this person, or worry about whether you can find a better one.

When you want to stop loss, you are not sure that the next transaction, or the next stage of transactions can make money.

In the final analysis, when we face the "sinking cost" and hesitant, we are not irrational, not our good face, unwilling to admit our mistakes, but we lack positive expectations for the future.

As a trend trader, my usual trading rate is very low, and it may be less than 40%, so I often stop loss, and I can also ensure that the effective implementation of the stop loss is because I have a positive direction for the trend trading system.Expectation.Because I know, as long as you persist, after repeated cutting meat and stop loss during the vibration, you will definitely reap the feedback of the trend market.Just as the owner of the hot pot restaurant knows that in the bleak operations of summer, the cost of paying for rent without regrets is to wait for the autumn and winter door.


责任编辑:major events